The Dagger Thrown and the Yardage Surrendered

The video below has the audio of this post being read by Steve Czaban on Milwaukee morning radio. Thanks to 102.9 The Hog for the audio and obviously Steve for the mention.

6,585 yards (32^nd) and 359 points (19^th) were surrendered by the Green Bay Packers’ defense in the 2011 season.  Dead last in yards allowed, an NFL record 4,796 passing yards allowed and a below average points against total is an atrocious showing for any defensive unit, much less one that won a Super Bowl a year ago and finished the most recent season 15-1.  Yes, the Packers defense tied for a league-high 38 turnovers forced (31 INTs, 7 fumbles) and the defense/special teams accounted for 5 touchdowns (tied for 4^th overall), but the yards surrendered shouldn’t be any less alarming. Or should they?

After an absolute routing of Oakland at home, fans started to write off the yardage surrendered as the team basically giving up in the fourth quarter.  Who could blame them? Returning 9 defensive starters from the previous season, one could hardly fault the snake-bitten Packers for wanting to avoid the injured reserve list previously occupied by 10 defensive players (7 of whom saw significant playing time) last season, especially when games were well in hand.

Football stat gurus Football Outsiders took a league-wide look at their DVOA figures, removing team performance in the 4^th quarter of games after the week 14 game against Oakland.  Those results showed the Packers as having the 4^th highest drop in DVOA performance in the 4^th quarter of games in 2011. That result is nothing astounding, but significant nonetheless.

That said, those calculations were a quick, broad attempt in determining which teams tend to ease off the gas pedal in the 4th quarter. Packer fans should be understandably skeptical after witnessing their team breeze through a 15-1 season where their offense gained fewer yards than their defense allowed (6.482 vs. 6,585), and rightfully so. Aaron Rodgers was so brutally efficient this year that 11% of his 502 passing attempts went for touchdowns, and the Packers posted a +201 point differential that would have topped the league were the Packers as concerned as the Saints about their QB winning the MVP.

Driving home listening to the radio during that Oakland game, I came to a revelation that sparked the research for this piece. In the 3^rd and 4^th quarter, Wayne Larravee and Larry McCarren referred to all of Oakland’s yards/points as “garbage” and Mike McCarthy was quoted after the game as saying, “It’s not often in this league that you can say you won a game by halftime, but that happened today.”  How do we account for situations wherein a team is so efficient, they’ve won the game before the start of the fourth quarter?  And does that affect their performance?

If you’re wondering whether good teams truly ease up when they feel the game is at hand, look no further than this year’s Patriots Colts game. The AFC’s best Patriots surrendered 21 points to a winless Colts team in the fourth quarter, under the mentality of resting starters in the hopes of winning both the battle and the season-long war. The Patriots have the highest winning percentage and three championships in the last decade. I’d consider this clever gamesmanship, not an indictment of the quality of their defense.

Using advancednflstats.com’s win probably numbers combined with admittedly subjectively designated scoring plays, I’ve produced a game by game analysis of when the proverbial “dagger” was delivered and the “garbage”  yardage and points that were surrendered beyond that point. The two general dagger-defining criteria used will be a +.95 WP and a Packer’s point total at the time that exceeds their opponent’s final point total, erring on the later points in the game where both criteria are met. At the end, I’ll tally those post-dagger yards/points, discuss omissions and explain what it all means.

Week 1 vs the Saints. Dagger: John Kuhn TD with 11:52 remaining in the 4^th quarter to put the Packers up 42-27. On the ensuing possession, the Saints get the ball back but produce a 3 and out. At 5:35 in the 4^th quarter, the Saints get the ball back again with a .01WP, still down 15 and start their first scoring drive and so we start the first “garbage” yardage/points tally: 

Drive 1: 76 yards, 7 points.
Drive 2: 79 yards, 0 points. Mark Ingram stopped on the goaline on 4^th down, Packers up 42-34.
Ballgame

Week 2 vs Panthers. Dagger: 84 yard TD pass to Jordy Nelson with 2:26 remaining in the 4^th quarter. Packers are up by 14 (30-16) with a .99WP. Garbage tally:

Drive 1: 83 yards, 7 points.
Ballgame

Week 3 vs. Bears. Dagger: Rodgers 10 yard TD to Finley, Packers up 27-10 with 12:49 to go in the 4th quarter.  On the ensuing drive, Cutler throws a pick to Morgan Burnett, Packers .99WP. Garbage tally:

Drive 1: 32 yards, 7 points.
Drive 2: 4 yards
Drive 3: 20 yards
Drive 4: 16 yards
Ballgame

Week 4 vs. Broncos. Dagger: Rodgers 8 yard TD scramble, Packers up 35-17 with 8:26 left in the 3^rd quarter, .98WP.  Yes, an early 3^rd quarter dagger.  The Packers score twice more after this and Denver has several possessions, but they finish the game with 23 points. Garbage tally:

Drive 1: 50 yards
Packers go up 42-17
Drive 2: -4 yards
Drive 3: 0 yards, INT
Packers go up 49-17
Drive 4: 78 yards, 7 points.
Drive 5: 7 yards
Ballgame

Week 5 vs. Falcons. Dagger: Rodgers 29 yard TD to Jennings, Packers up 22-14, after a few possessions, .99WP for Packers after Crosby field goal.  The WP graph plays a big part in determining the dagger here: the touchdown to go up 22-14 only gives the packers a .86WP, it’s not until enough clock is killed that the chart spikes to .99 and stays there.  Atlanta gets the ball with 1:10 left in the 4^th quarter. Garbage tally:

Drive 1: 57 yards.
Bush INT, Ballgame.

Week 6 vs. Rams. Dagger: Rodgers 7 yard TD to Driver with 1:51 left in 2^nd quarter, Packers up 24-0, .96WP. Garbage tally:

Drive 1: 62 yards, 3 points.
Drive 2: 32 yards
Drive 3: 70 yards
INT Sam Shields
Drive 4: 60 yards
Drive 5: 17 yards
Drive 6: 15 yards
Ballgame

Week 7 vs. Vikings. Dagger: Mason Crosby field goal after INT, Packers up 30-17, .97WP with 3:18 left in the 3^rd quarter. Garbage tally:

Drive 1: 50 yards
INT Charles Woodson, Packers Field goal, up 33-17.
Drive 2: 52 yards, 3 points
Drive 3: 77 yards, 7 points
Drive 4: 34 yards, Vikings punt, never get it back.
Ballgame

Week 9 vs Chargers. Dagger: Rodgers 4 yard TD to Jennings, Packers up 45-24, .99WP with 10:27 left in the 4^th quarter. The Packers hit .97WP when they score 38 points, but because San Diego ultimately puts up 38 points of their own, the touchdown to get to 45 points is the true dagger.  Yes, this was a close shootout, but I’d call a 21 point lead with 10 minutes left to play a done deal. Garbage tally:

Drive 1: 80 yards, 7 points.
Recovered onside kick
Drive 2: 55 yards, 7 points.
Drive 3: 10 yards, punt.
Drive 4: 30 yards, INT Charlie Peprah.
Ballgame

Week 10 vs Vikings. Dagger: Rodgers 17 yard TD to Jordy Nelson, Packers up 24-0, .97WP with 9:10 left in the 3^rd quarter. Garbage tally:

Drive 1: Cobb fumbled punt, 17 yards, 7 points.
Packers TD to Kuhn
Drive 2: 32 yards
Packers TD to Nelson
Drive 3: 0 yards
Matt Flynn TD
Drive 4: 40 yards
Ballgame

Week 11 vs Buccaneers. Dagger: John Kuhn 2 yard TD run, Packers up 28-19, .95WP with 7:42 left in 4^th quarter. Garbage tally: 

Drive 1: 7 yards
Rodgers throws INT
Drive 2: 50 yards, 7 points
Nelson TD
Williams INT
Packers Missed field goal
Drive 3: 23 yards
Ballgame

Week 12 vs Lions. Dagger: Rodgers 65 yard TD to James Jones, Packers up 21-0, .98WP with 5:25 left in 3^rd quarter. Suh was ejected on the touchdown drive before this when the Packers went up 14-0 and Detroit unraveled. Garbage tally:

Drive 1: 5 yards
Charles Woodson INT
Packers field goal, up 24-0
Drive 2: 72 yards, 8 points
Drive 3: 1 yard
Packers field goal, up 27-8
Drive 4: 79 yards, 7 points
Ballgame

Week 13 vs Giants. No dagger, Packers win 38-35 on the last play of the game.

Week 14 vs Raiders. Dagger: This game’s dagger is entirely subjective. Oakland’s first score happens with around 8 minutes left in the 3^rd quarter, down 34-7. Looking at the WP graph, I’ve designated the dagger after the Packers go up 31-0 in the 2^nd quarter on a Ryan Grant TD run, 7:06 left in the 2^nd quarter, .95WP. Oakland is then held to a four and out and the Packers drive the ball to Oakland’s 4 yard line before Finley drops a ball that’s intercepted in the endzone. Below are garbage tallies for the remaining Oakland drives after the assigned dagger above (omitting the 4 and out).

Drive 1: 66 yards
INT Rob Francois
Packers field goal, up 34-0
Drive 2: 80 yards, 7 points
Packers field goal, up 37-7
Drive 3: Fumble recovered for Walden touchdown, Packers up 43-7
Drive 4: 3 yards
Packers field goal, up 46-7.
Drive 5: 17 yards
Drive 6: 77 yards, 7 points
Drive 7: 22 yards
Ballgame

Week 15 vs Chiefs. No victory, no dagger.

Week 16 vs. Bears. Dagger: Rodgers 7 yard TD to James Jones, Packers up 28-10, with 1:54 left in the 3^rd quarter and .97WP. Garbage tally:

Drive 1: INT Charlie Peprah
Nelson TD, Packers up 35-10, Bears season over.
Drive 2: 67 yards, 8 points
Drive 3: 95 yards, 3 points
Ballgame

Week 17 vs Lions. Game came down to the last play with several lead changes, no dagger.

Omitted from the tallies were opponent’s drives that resulted in no first down or yardage less than ten yards.  In a competitive game situation, those are desired outcomes and therefore those unsuccessful drives are not relevant here.

The totals are 1,862 yards and 109 points allowed in garbage time. Subtract those numbers from season totals above and you get 4,723 yards and 250 points surrendered, good for 4^th and 3^rd overall in the league, respectively and similar to last year's totals of 4,945 and 240 (5th and 2nd).

If you take half those totals (931 yards, 54.5 points), assuming opponents are going to gain some yardage in that time, and subtract those from the season totals, the defense would rank 18^th in yards allowed and 5^th in points surrendered.

I also compiled total interceptions and fumbles recovered in this “garbage” time. 9 passes were intercepted when the game was in hand and 2 fumbles were recovered.  It’s also important to note that five games (Bears 1, Vikings 1, Lions, Raiders, and Bears 2) had interceptions that occurred right around the dagger.  Those show the defense’s contribution in putting those games out of reach.

However, subtracting 11 “garbage” turnovers of players simply ball-hawking would give the team 27 total turnovers, good for 8th in the league.  Astoundingly, they’d still be tied for 2nd in the league with 22 INTs. Last year, they recorded 32 turnovers with 24 INTs and 8 fumbles.

Meanwhile, the Packers put up 73 points in garbage time, approximately 13% of the 560 they produced all season. Above, I made a derogatory remark about the Saints blowing teams away and inflating stats. A quick look at late game WPs in a few memorable games showed the Saints produced 76 garbage points of their season total 547 in just 4 games, most notably scoring 31 in the second half against the Colts.

All of this information is most useful in context. The 1,862 post-dagger yards allowed are 28.7% of all yards allowed by the Packers over the course of the season, while the 109 points are 30.4% of the total points allowed on the year. Now, if these totals were achieved in roughly 30% of the opposition’s time holding the ball, this entire exercise would be meaningless as the garbage time touchdowns would be no more or less informative than normal scores. However, opponents held the ball for a total of 472 minutes and 16 seconds (to Green Bay’s 487:44), of which 105:18 were considered to be post-dagger, totaling just 22.2% of the total TOP for Packer opponents. In 22% of possession time, opponents gained almost 29% of their yards and scored over 30% of their points. That, my friends, is statistically significant

If we normalize the post-dagger yardage and points to pre-dagger totals, the defense would have allowed 6,074 yards and 322 points the Packers are 29th in yards and 9th in points. Further, if you normalize the Detroit offensive outburst, which was itself played entirely post-dagger, we’re looking at 5,775 yards and 291 points, good for 23rd and 5th, respectively.

23rd and 5th. The yardage makes sense because most teams aren’t going be able to run the ball enough to keep up with Rodgers and his henchmen, so they need to employ long-yardage pass plays. 5th is more in line with last year’s team that finished 2nd in points allowed.

Sure, this type of analysis could be done for every team, but an offensive juggernaut that puts teams away early and wins 15 of its 16 games affords its team the fortunate situation where the maximum effort is not always required of its defense. Taking into consideration the mathematical analysis above and remembering that 21/22 opening day starters (Nick Collins) are expected to play in Sunday's Divisional Playoff game (compared to the 10 would-be starters on IR last year), the coaches and defense are deserving of praise for a job well done.

Now it’s time to determine whether maximum effort can be expended when the stakes have been raised.

(Credit due to BrewCityBub for TOP and normalization calculations and contributions)