The Dagger Delivered and the Yardage Surrendered

The video below has the audio of this post being read by Steve Czaban on Milwaukee morning radio. Thanks to 102.9 The Hog for the audio and obviously Steve for the mention.

Week 1 vs the Saints. Dagger: John Kuhn TD with 11:52 remaining in the 4^th quarter to put the Packers up 42-27. On the ensuing possession, the Saints get the ball back but produce a 3 and out. At 5:35 in the 4^th quarter, the Saints get the ball back again with a .01WP, still down 15 and start their first scoring drive and so we start the first “garbage” yardage/points tally: 

Drive 1: 76 yards, 7 points.
Drive 2: 79 yards, 0 points. Mark Ingram stopped on the goaline on 4^th down, Packers up 42-34.
Ballgame

Week 2 vs Panthers. Dagger: 84 yard TD pass to Jordy Nelson with 2:26 remaining in the 4^th quarter. Packers are up by 14 (30-16) with a .99WP. Garbage tally:

Drive 1: 83 yards, 7 points.
Ballgame

Week 3 vs. Bears. Dagger: Rodgers 10 yard TD to Finley, Packers up 27-10 with 12:49 to go in the 4th quarter.  On the ensuing drive, Cutler throws a pick to Morgan Burnett, Packers .99WP. Garbage tally:

Drive 1: 32 yards, 7 points.
Drive 2: 4 yards
Drive 3: 20 yards
Drive 4: 16 yards
Ballgame

Week 4 vs. Broncos. Dagger: Rodgers 8 yard TD scramble, Packers up 35-17 with 8:26 left in the 3^rd quarter, .98WP.  Yes, an early 3^rd quarter dagger.  The Packers score twice more after this and Denver has several possessions, but they finish the game with 23 points. Garbage tally:

Drive 1: 50 yards
Packers go up 42-17
Drive 2: -4 yards
Drive 3: 0 yards, INT
Packers go up 49-17
Drive 4: 78 yards, 7 points.
Drive 5: 7 yards
Ballgame

Week 5 vs. Falcons. Dagger: Rodgers 29 yard TD to Jennings, Packers up 22-14, after a few possessions, .99WP for Packers after Crosby field goal.  The WP graph plays a big part in determining the dagger here: the touchdown to go up 22-14 only gives the packers a .86WP, it’s not until enough clock is killed that the chart spikes to .99 and stays there.  Atlanta gets the ball with 1:10 left in the 4^th quarter. Garbage tally:

Drive 1: 57 yards.
Bush INT, Ballgame.

Week 6 vs. Rams. Dagger: Rodgers 7 yard TD to Driver with 1:51 left in 2^nd quarter, Packers up 24-0, .96WP. Garbage tally:

Drive 1: 62 yards, 3 points.
Drive 2: 32 yards
Drive 3: 70 yards
INT Sam Shields
Drive 4: 60 yards
Drive 5: 17 yards
Drive 6: 15 yards
Ballgame

Week 7 vs. Vikings. Dagger: Mason Crosby field goal after INT, Packers up 30-17, .97WP with 3:18 left in the 3^rd quarter. Garbage tally:

Drive 1: 50 yards
INT Charles Woodson, Packers Field goal, up 33-17.
Drive 2: 52 yards, 3 points
Drive 3: 77 yards, 7 points
Drive 4: 34 yards, Vikings punt, never get it back.
Ballgame

Week 9 vs Chargers. Dagger: Rodgers 4 yard TD to Jennings, Packers up 45-24, .99WP with 10:27 left in the 4^th quarter. The Packers hit .97WP when they score 38 points, but because San Diego ultimately puts up 38 points of their own, the touchdown to get to 45 points is the true dagger.  Yes, this was a close shootout, but I’d call a 21 point lead with 10 minutes left to play a done deal. Garbage tally:

Drive 1: 80 yards, 7 points.
Recovered onside kick
Drive 2: 55 yards, 7 points.
Drive 3: 10 yards, punt.
Drive 4: 30 yards, INT Charlie Peprah.
Ballgame

Week 10 vs Vikings. Dagger: Rodgers 17 yard TD to Jordy Nelson, Packers up 24-0, .97WP with 9:10 left in the 3^rd quarter. Garbage tally:

Drive 1: Cobb fumbled punt, 17 yards, 7 points.
Packers TD to Kuhn
Drive 2: 32 yards
Packers TD to Nelson
Drive 3: 0 yards
Matt Flynn TD
Drive 4: 40 yards
Ballgame

Week 11 vs Buccaneers. Dagger: John Kuhn 2 yard TD run, Packers up 28-19, .95WP with 7:42 left in 4^th quarter. Garbage tally: 

Drive 1: 7 yards
Rodgers throws INT
Drive 2: 50 yards, 7 points
Nelson TD
Williams INT
Packers Missed field goal
Drive 3: 23 yards
Ballgame

Week 12 vs Lions. Dagger: Rodgers 65 yard TD to James Jones, Packers up 21-0, .98WP with 5:25 left in 3^rd quarter. Suh was ejected on the touchdown drive before this when the Packers went up 14-0 and Detroit unraveled. Garbage tally:

Drive 1: 5 yards
Charles Woodson INT
Packers field goal, up 24-0
Drive 2: 72 yards, 8 points
Drive 3: 1 yard
Packers field goal, up 27-8
Drive 4: 79 yards, 7 points
Ballgame

Week 13 vs Giants. No dagger, Packers win 38-35 on the last play of the game.

Week 14 vs Raiders. Dagger: This game’s dagger is entirely subjective. Oakland’s first score happens with around 8 minutes left in the 3^rd quarter, down 34-7. Looking at the WP graph, I’ve designated the dagger after the Packers go up 31-0 in the 2^nd quarter on a Ryan Grant TD run, 7:06 left in the 2^nd quarter, .95WP. Oakland is then held to a four and out and the Packers drive the ball to Oakland’s 4 yard line before Finley drops a ball that’s intercepted in the endzone. Below are garbage tallies for the remaining Oakland drives after the assigned dagger above (omitting the 4 and out).

Drive 1: 66 yards
INT Rob Francois
Packers field goal, up 34-0
Drive 2: 80 yards, 7 points
Packers field goal, up 37-7
Drive 3: Fumble recovered for Walden touchdown, Packers up 43-7
Drive 4: 3 yards
Packers field goal, up 46-7.
Drive 5: 17 yards
Drive 6: 77 yards, 7 points
Drive 7: 22 yards
Ballgame

Week 15 vs Chiefs. No victory, no dagger.

Week 16 vs. Bears. Dagger: Rodgers 7 yard TD to James Jones, Packers up 28-10, with 1:54 left in the 3^rd quarter and .97WP. Garbage tally:

Drive 1: INT Charlie Peprah
Nelson TD, Packers up 35-10, Bears season over.
Drive 2: 67 yards, 8 points
Drive 3: 95 yards, 3 points
Ballgame

Week 17 vs Lions. Game came down to the last play with several lead changes, no dagger.