The Curse of Expectations

I now understand why Billy Beane doesn't watch A's games.

The whole mess we're in today starts in summer 2002. I was 19 and home for the summer between my freshman and sophmore years of college. I had spent most of the previous few summers watching and attending Brewers game, making the most of an ability to drink alcohol underage with little restriction. Perhaps the best part of the games were that we took joy in the Brewers misery. Condescendy still has pictures of the record for team strikeouts that stood until 2010 (another reason to cheer against the Diamondbacks). Jose Hernandez made a couple attempts at the individual record. and later in that summer, Brewers baseball reached its nadir, with the on-the-mound fight between Jerry Royster and Mike De Jean.

Two months prior to that fight, the Brewers began a major course correction. Their approach to the draft under Jack Zdureincik is the singular reason the Brewers are in the playoffs today, and while he had some success prior to 2002 - Hardy, Sheets, Hart - he amassed talent and built his reputation as the best drafting scouting director of the decade (per SI) beginning with the selection of Fielder in 2002. The pick was ridiculed in Moneyball (too fat for the A's!), but was the first in a string of top flight selections that directly or indirectly produced the rest of the roster (Weeks, Braun, Gallardo, LaPorta, Lawrie, Jefress, Odorizzi) and the catalyst for the organization's revival. With that success, everything changed.

It took a few years to get things humming, but in reaching the 2008 playoffs, on the back of the repeated acquisition of premium talent through the draft, the Brewers erased 25 years of futility. In doing so they exhausted most of their resources and expended all of their energy. The accomplishment in 2008 was not winning the World Series, it was merely having a date to the dance.

Three years later, following the gutting of nearly every useful asset in the minors, the core of premium talent secured a return trip to the playoffs, in what is all but certainly Fielder's final season in Milwaukee. The stakes just feel different than in 2008. The team is as healthy as it has been all season. They've managed to identify all of the weak spots in the starting lineup not named Betancourt, and are generally firing on all cylinders. Their opponent in the first round is an overachiever and eminently beatable, particularly compared to the Phillies, who were a legitimate possibility as recently as Wednesday evening. In short, getting a date to the dance is no longer sufficient, now the Brewers need to get laid.

This is the last year with Fielder. Next year three pitching contracts come off the books. At best, in 2013 Greinke signs another deal, Jungmann is a serviceable 4th/5th type and Estrada holds his own. At best. In reality the team won't have the pitching to win more than 75 games and won't have the farm system to fill in the gaps. It's this year, and maybe next, to see a successful (ie championship) team in Milwaukee. This is the point at which hard realities set in.

We've all been able to watch the playoffs for years with the keen understanding that each team has somewhere between a 40% and 60% chance of winning any given playoff series, rendering their odds of winning a championship a veritable crap shoot. Fine when you're antiseptically watching other teams, not fine when you've only got one or two cracks to get your dick wet. My point, in all of this (and I realize this is random rambling, I just can't focus on work and wanted to save my observations for posterity) is that I'm really not going to be able to enjoy any of these games because the expectations are too high. I'm going to take losses personally. This isn't just a bird in the hand. There don't appear to be any birds in an entire field of bushes. If they get swept out this week it's entirely plausible I'll never see a Brewers World Series. I get drunk at Notre Dame games because I can't stomach how bad the team is. I'll be getting drunk this weekend because I can't stomach the thought of fully appreciating the gravity of each loss. Not to worry, though. I'm sure the Brewers will be chasing some record for futility in 2013, and I can finally enjoy going to games again.

2011 MLB Postseason Predictions

Tigers at Yankees

Rays at Rangers

Diamondbacks at Brewers

Cardinals at Phillies

Not Alderaan!

Panthers, Newton Prepare for Packers

Carolina Planning to Start Rookie, Undrafted RT


With Panthers' starting RT Jeff Otah out with a concussion, Carolina will start undrafted rookie, Byron Bell to anchor the right side of its offensive line. Bell has been described as one who "plays tall" and "lacks recovery speed." Making matters more complicated for Newton and the Panthers, they are without starting RG Geoff Schwartz, who is out for the season.

Mike McCarthy and the Packers have not publicly stated whether the defense will attempt to exploit Carolina's sudden potential weakness on the right side of its line. When reached for comment, Clay Matthews III's agent stated, "Clay obviously cannot disclose what the plans are at this point, and he cannot speak right now because he is sharpening his penis."

Let's Not Lose Sight of What Really Matters

And this is really what baseball is all about.



This guy reminds me quite a bit of this Milwaukee legend:



We haven't had a Brewers post in quite a while. I can't figure out why people are so down on the team right now. The Brewers have a 5.5 game lead with 12.5 games left. It would take an epic collapse to miss the playoffs. I'm not worried. Just because the offense has staggered for over a week does not mean anything. The Brewers' offense has been up and down all season. If anything, we can take the current struggles as a sign that they will be peaking in two weeks when games matter a lot more.

I admit I am biased that I want the Brewers to finish behind the Diamondbacks. But I can't figure out why fans are so desperate for the Brewers to have home field advantage and play the Braves in the first round instead of the Phillies. First, when does home field advantage matter? Only when a series goes to its final game. It does not matter if a series ends early, even if the team played more games on the road than at home in a series ending in 3 or 5 games. Most series do not go to a final game, even 5-game series. And we likely are only talking about one series because the Brewers will finish ahead of the Braves no matter what and behind the Phillies no matter what. Further, I think the recent slump at home helps show that the Brewers' home/road split was not sustainable. In reality, the Brewers are better at home but not hugely better at home. So we are talking about a small advantage that home field may bring, but the chances of that advantage to come into play are still below 50%. So we should not be so concerned about home field advantage.

Second, people are terrified to play the Phillies in the first round. Why? The Phillies admittedly are the best team in the National League. But if you think they are so great, then you have to assume you'd play them in the NLCS, right? The reality is that the Phillies have won only 7% more often than the Brewers this year. That is a significant difference, but consider that that is over 150 games. Take any 5 game sample, and the Phillies have only slightly better than a 7% advantage to beat the Brewers. The more games that you play in a series, the more likely it is that the Phillies win. In an infinite game series, the Phillies win every time. In a one-game series, the Phillies win only 53.5% of the time. Of course, if the Brewers do not play the Phillies in the first round, perhaps they get lucky and the Diamondbacks beat the Phillies. But, if that's the case, then the Brewers certainly could have beaten the Phillies. So, what are we really worried about?

I guess I'm still married to the "playoffs are a crapshoot" notion. I don't care how the Brewers get in, I just am happy if they get in. And right now, despite slipping a lot in the standings against the Cardinals over the last two weeks, I'm very confident they will be in the playoffs.

But before you start thinking the Brewers don't piss me off, I am not going to forgive the Brewers when they put a shitty postseason roster together. It is unforgivable to keep Kotsay or Wilson on the roster given the better options available. The only way those guys make the roster is if Hairston or Green don't make it (there's no way Counsell or Betancourt get left off). That's not okay. And it is unforgivable to continue to play Betancourt at shortstop every game and to have him starting in the playoffs. The options to replace him aren't great, but my God are they better than him. The Brewers need to use the next two weeks to get Hairston prepped at short.

Packers 42 Saints 34

FOOOOOOOOOOTBAAAAAAAAAAAAAAL!

The 2011 NFL season is here and started as many would have hoped, with a planet-eviscerating bang. The Packers offense looked sharp and the defense looked, well, like most defenses that have to try to stop Drew Brees.

Bob McGinn noted some important stats from the game that I thought I'd relay. The wide-receiver snaps-played breakdown was... 

Jennings - 52

Finley - 51 (29 isolated or lined up wide, 13 in-line, 9 in backfield/wing)

Driver - 44

Nelson -27

Jones - 19

Cobb - 7

Obviously one game is a very small sample size, but it gives you an idea as to the initial depth chart ranks for each as these are snaps played, not targets.

Rodgers was blitzed about 60% of the time and ran from the shotgun 61% of the time,  not coming even close to throwing an interception. Bulaga and Sitton didn't allow a QB pressure, much less a sack all night despite the heavy blitz percentages.  It seems like the right side of the offensive line is going to be unbelievably solid for years to come.

Starks played 43 snaps to Grant's 16.  I wonder who's going to be the starting running back the rest of the season?

The defense was a mess, but Raji played 92% of the snaps (70 of 76) all but four defensive snaps were played in the two defensive lineman "nickel" formation.  They played 1 down of 3-4 and 3 downs of the "hippo" 4-4 with Howie Greene. 

Jarius Wynn clearly saw more time (32 plays) than CJ Wilson (6).  Wynn played well and we'll probably continue to see more of him if Mike Neal keeps up his Justin Harrell impersonation. Wynn, Walden, and Hawk/Bush combined for the 3 sacks.

Matthews was assigned one blocker 23 times, double-teamed 13 times, dropped into coverage 9 times and ran stunts 6 times in all 51 of Brees' dropbacks.  Again, Mike Neal needs to get healthy or Matthews will continue to create sacks for other players by drawing the opposing offense's left tackle or regular double teams.  Matthews was a fucking terror against Mike Vick twice last year, so I think he'll thrive in next week's matchup against the poor man's Eagles in Carolina. 

Beyond that, Morgan Burnett lead the team with 14 tackles, Bishop wasn't far behind with 12.

Injury reports aren't due until tomorrow so we'll hear then as to the extent of Williams' shoulder injury, but initial reports were that it was nothing terribly serious.