Brewers acquire A-Rod
Former New York Yankees' third baseman Alex Rodriguez (above) knocks his 6,000th career home run with the Brewers, his 5,374th with the team, obliterating Hank Aaron's record by roughly 4,500 for most home runs with one franchise.
AP (Milwaukee) - In something of a surprise move, the filthy rich New York Yankees traded surefire hall of fame third baseman and cash considerations to the Milwaukee Brewers for two PTBNLs. A surprising move given the Yankees >90% chance of making the playoffs this year, next year, and frankly, each of the remaining years on Rodriguez's contract. "We just really, really like Caleb Gindl," stated Yankees' General Manager Brian Cashman.
The Brewers, who, at press time, lacked the slightest financial wherewithal to pay for even a month of Rodriguez's contract, are nonetheless ecstatic to be replacing likely Hendy finalist and total shitbird Casey McGehee at third base. "Frankly, even if his knee injury holds him out until late September, we're better off with him than playing that shitbird McGehee all season!" exclaimed Brewers' skipper Ron Roenicke.
No word yet on how much of Rodriguez's contract the Yankees will be on the hook for, but early reports are stating that it's in the "pretty much fucking all of it" range. When reached for comment about the trade, Rodriguez made some passing comment about having to play next to the one shortstop that sucks more at defense than Jeter, returning to being fanned with a novelty feather by a topless Cameron Diaz.
No word yet on Brewers solutions at shortstop and in the bullpen, but given tonight's actions, the message is clear: the Brewers are willing to open their pocket books in this all-in season.
The Brewers, who, at press time, lacked the slightest financial wherewithal to pay for even a month of Rodriguez's contract, are nonetheless ecstatic to be replacing likely Hendy finalist and total shitbird Casey McGehee at third base. "Frankly, even if his knee injury holds him out until late September, we're better off with him than playing that shitbird McGehee all season!" exclaimed Brewers' skipper Ron Roenicke.
No word yet on how much of Rodriguez's contract the Yankees will be on the hook for, but early reports are stating that it's in the "pretty much fucking all of it" range. When reached for comment about the trade, Rodriguez made some passing comment about having to play next to the one shortstop that sucks more at defense than Jeter, returning to being fanned with a novelty feather by a topless Cameron Diaz.
No word yet on Brewers solutions at shortstop and in the bullpen, but given tonight's actions, the message is clear: the Brewers are willing to open their pocket books in this all-in season.
Labels: shitbirds
posted by Brew City Bub @ 12:34 AM
19 comments
19 Comments:
This may be the single best thing to come of the financial crisis. The Mets are in financial disarray and need to start sloughing salary. They absolutely could not keep K-Rod because they'd be facing a union grievance if they plugged him in a setup role to avoid the vesting of his option (he has a $17.5M option for 2012 that vests if he finishes 55 games this season. He is at 34 right now). Further, he had a 10-team no trade clause that did *not* include Milwaukee because they probably figured there was no way Milwaukee would be able to afford him anyway. Finally, Milwaukee was the perfect fit because unlike the Mets, they have a pre-existing stable option at closer already and can safely plug him into a setup role, thereby avoiding his vesting option and not pissing off the union.
The Brewers and Mets were perfect trading partners. The Brewers have no prospects but have holes to fill and are willing to spend for this year only. The Mets didn't need prospects, they just needed the right situation to dump the guy to for about $4M in salary relief (reports are that the Brewers will get $5M. K Rod is due $5.5M the rest of this season and has a $3.5M buyout). This means Kameron Loe, once the second option out of the pen, is now the fifth option. It *should* be very hard to score runs against the Brewers, especially if they cut down to a 4-man rotation during the postseason.
I guess I don't totally get the tone here. First, they traded for Francisco Rodriguez, not Alex Rodriguez. That may make a difference in your analysis. Not sure.
A few thoughts, itemized of course.
1) Let's ignore Brewers fans reactions. This is not a five-win move. It is NOT a five-win move. The Brewers will NOT WIN FIVE MORE GAMES BECAUSE OF THIS MOVE. It's easy to look back at the season so far and say, "if we had K-Rod in that game, we don't give up those runs and we win." There are too many flaws in that statement to properly address. But suffice to say that K-Rod will give up 3 runs per nine innings, too, and we are talking about a guy who will probably throw less than 30 innings with the Brewers. If we could assure that those 30 innings would be the most high leverage innings and K-Rod would have a 0.00 ERA, then yeah, he may be worth five wins. But that's not going to happen. K-Rod will have a 3 ERA and pitch exclusively one-inning stints set in the eighth inning in games the Brewers are leading by less than 5 runs. That's it. That's all he is. It's stupid not to use him with the bases loaded and one out in the sixth inning, but that's the reality here.
2) K-Rod is worth something, and I'd say it's about one win. I've been harping on how significant every win is all season. Look no further than the current standings. One extra win and the Brewers would be in the postseason today. One less and they wouldn't. Chances are this race is going down to the wire and every win counts.
3) I doubt the Brewers gave up much more than $3.5 million for K-Rod. The Brewers have only one legitimate prospect, Tyler Thornburg, who could be traded (the June 2011 draft picks cannot be traded). I would have to assume Thornburg would have been named already if he was involved in this trade. It's not a guarantee that he's excluded, but I just cannot see why he wouldn't be named. He's probably the only Brewers prospect in the top 150 prospects in baseball. Anyone else who they traded means virtually nothing to me. The Brewers capitalized on the Mets desire to dump salary and avoid the need to pay K-Rod $17.5 million next year. The Brewers were not on his no-trade list. That no-trade list tied the Mets' hands and put the Brewers in a better bargaining position. The Brewers took advantage of this. Paying K-Rod money in future years does not bother me at all because, as I've said over and over, who gives a shit about any year after this.
4) I laugh at the people who think that pitching K-Rod in the eighth inning instead of the ninth is going to be some massive ordeal. Askford has been lights out, and there's no reason to remove him from the closer spot. K-Rod is not going to intentionally tank games because he's losing out on money next year. Look at this logically. He's making $3.5 M guaranteed next year. If he finishes 21 more games he'd essentially be signing a one-year, $14 contract with the Brewers. This isn't that much better than what he'd get on the free agent market. There, he may get 4 years, $40M. Assuming he doesn't tank, he will get a multi-year deal. And, worst case, if Askford gets injured or falls apart, we have a backup plan, albeit a very expensive one.
5) No, this does not address the gaping hole at shortstop, but I also don't think it hurts that cause. The solution at shortstop wasn't going to be Jose Reyes. Beyond him, the options are a bunch of guys who were not going to require significant packages of prospects. The Brewers can improve at shortstop with a simple move of trading any prospect for a 27 year old playing at Triple-A. All they need is someone capable of playing slightly above replacement level to add another win. Losing Betancourt is more valuable than adding a star shortstop instead of a steady one. What this trade does is stops the Brewers from targeting any other pitchers, which is good. Now they have a couple weeks to find a guy like Marco Scutaro. That shouldn't be too difficult. Of course, this assumes they have properly assessed Betancourt, which they probably haven't.
6) The Brewers also need another bat off the bench. This, too, should not require a significant pile of prospects.
7) Casey McGehee has been perhaps the worst player in the majors in the first half of the season. But honestly what are the Brewers going to do about that? Who can they trade for? They frankly need McGehee to start hitting again, something he did in the past. There is no injury with him, which is even more maddening insofar as there is no explanation for his struggles. But who is available in this amrket to replace McGehee? I've heard no third basemen named. Mark Reynolds? Chone Figgins? Chase Headley? Reynolds or Headley would be nice, but, again, I don't think they're really being marketed. If they were, I doubt the trade for K-Rod would prevent the Brewers from making such a move.
8) My major concern with the trade, which I think otherwise has little downside (depending of course on the prospects named) is that the Brewers bullpen is extremely susceptible to wearing down before the rosters expand on Sept. 1. There are simply too many one-inning guys and specialists. Marco Estrada is the only long reliever in the pen. A bad start or some extra inning games could demolish the pen.
All in all, I'm optimistic. It's the year to pull the trigger on something like this, no matter how overrated K-Rod may be.
Good article on the shortstop solutions:
Betancourt is horrible
We can all agree that Furcal is the solution at short. And notice the K-Rod trade added no salary for this season, perhaps the most significant positive of that trade.
The post was a joke, you clown. I hope you read my comment before posting.
Who said it was a five win move? It's a one win move. Marginal wins are worth about $5M on the open market in a vacuum. To a competitive team with a one year window where one win could mean the difference between making the playoffs this year and never making the playoffs again before the team leaves the city, it's probably worth more than $5M. Reports are that the Mets are throwing in $5M, meaning the Brewers are on the hook for less than the marginal benefit he'll provide. A good move all around.
It doesn't fix the problem at shortstop, but as you say, the fix to the problem at shortstop is coming. There are still 18 days until the trade deadline. They'll get somebody that can at least play defense and put up 90% of Betancourt's offensive "production".
I disagree as to whether they've properly assessed Betancourt. Yes, they've made some mistakes recently, but I believe every one of their moves since trading for Marcum has been calculated. Around the trade deadline last year, they realized they were not going to be able to move Fielder for an appropriate return, so they might as well take their shot with him in 2011. They gutted the farm system to do so, and left some obviously replaceable gaps on the team, notably Betancourt, who they had to take in order to close the deal for Greinke. They also knew that the Dodgers and Mets were in serious financial trouble and would be willing to sell players if they were out of contention. They're smart enough to have known that, I guarantee. The Dodgers still have two valuable quantities at short in Jamey Carroll and Rafael Furcal that the Brewers will be able to acquire with their limited system and financial resources. My guess is that the Dodgers are still listening to offers on both and that's why a deal hasn't been struck yet.
I agree that the solution wasn't going to be Jose Reyes, unless they traded Prince Hitter to get him, and while Reyes/Gamel may very well have been more valuable than Fielder/Betancourt, it's really the one time the Brewers wouldn't have traded a pending Free Agent for PR reasons. A replacement-level player will be worth about a half a win over the course of the second half of the season, and a defensive specialist would be worth about a full marginal win over Yuni B.
As for the bat off the bench, I suspect that will come in the form of Brandon Boggs once Betancourt is sent to pasture. With a real live major league shortstop, the Brewers will have no need for Josh Wilson and will have room on the 25 man roster for Boggs without having to ditch their homeboy Kotsay. It sucks to know that Kotsay is going to remain on the team, I agree, but the ability to dump wilson too means that all hope is not lost.
The real bitch this season has been Casey McGehee. He has been like a jungle full of monkeys fucking a sweatshop full of footballs. Fortunately they have at least a replacement-level option at 3rd if he continues to suck. For that reason there's really no chance that they trade for a 3B, which is good because the market for replacement level 3Bs will actually be tougher to wade than the market for replacement level SSs. Did you see who played 3rd in the ASG last night? Sweet heavenly jesuschrist.
Final thought before my meeting - Rodriguez might be worth more than one win depending on how the Brewers use him. It's likely that he'll be purely the 8th inning guy, but since we know he won't be pitching much in the 9th, they have a chance to use him as a true bullpen ace and bring him into the highest leverage situations they face before the 9th. The degree of leverage at least has the potential to bump him up 0.5 to 1 additional win, and even if there's only a 50% chance of that happening, that's 0.25 to 0.5 wins, which are still hugely, hugely important in this race.
Great writeups abound on fangraphs today. Two on the trade, one on the CF platoon:
Announcement of deal
Analysis of downside risk
CF Platoon
Nothing new here, necessarily, but a little more analysis to back up the points condy and I have made.
Who said it was a five win move?
Brewers fans. Most of them. 11/12ths of my office believes this apparently. Listen to sports radio. Hilarious stuff. Talking about how the Brewers have 20 bullpen losses. Loe has 7 losses. K-Rod would have 1 or 2 losses as a Brewer. Therefore, replacing Loe's innings with K-Rod's is worth 5 more wins from here. It's really fucking stupid.
Your blood pressure would be lower if you stopped listening to sports radio*. They do it to annoy you, like political talk shows of the opposite party.
*This does not apply to listening to Chicago sports radio following a historic meltdown or postseason defeat.
scott boras is brilliant.
k-rod was fucked with the mets' financial situation, and he wasn't ever getting that bonus from them. the players' union would have filed a grievance against the mets if they'd have benched him (while still healthy and effective) to avoid paying him and obviously no team was that desperate to pay $17.5 mil for 8 months of saves.
so the mets realize they can just trade him to a set-up role for pure dogshit to one of the 20 teams on his approved trade list. boras probably saw this coming, called k-rod and encouraged him to expand his options.
k-rod saying in late june that he'd be open to the set-up role on a "good" team was him acknowledging and accepting the fact he's probably not getting that bonus money. the mets probably got a a few inquiries as a result, and k-rod then asked boras to be his agent a few days before this trade.
upon the trade announcement, boras does the anti-wilpon and helps his client save face by saying he's not going anywhere to set-up and is a great closer, yada yada.
meanwhile, there's absolutely no way milwaukee lets him close 21 games with a healthy, moderately effective askford in the pen. askford's numbers are better and he's much cheaper. that said, there's little incentive for k-rod to protest and intentionally tank in the set-up role.
if askford gets hurt or becomes ineffective, k-rod wants to be the guy next in line to win a job that could potentially earn him that $17.5 mil...not a tough competition to win. if askford remains the closer, k-rod only stands to slightly hurt his 2012 FA value by sucking in the set-up role.
boras probably called k-rod, explained this shitty situation and told him to swallow his pride for two months in the hopes of maximizing both his current and potential earnings in the future. the desperate, contending (but probably still not up to k-rod's standard of "good") brewers with a shitty bullpen were more than willing to offer up the dogshit and take on the financial risk.
It's not just sports radio, but, yes, I'd be well advised not to listen to it.
Mark my words, Ron Roenicke will do everything he can to make Rodriguez's option vest. Remember, be is a player's manager.
I'm predicting K-rod'll finish/close in 3-5 run games and setup the rest of the time.
There's no way upper management allows Roenicke the discretion to spend $14 mil for an extra couple of innings, but I could see them making the decision to let the option vest on their own. It's only one season, and they paid similar money to Jeff fucking Suppan for several years.
Honestly, it wouldn't be the worst move to let the option vest, enjoy his services next season, and take the compensatory draft pick when he leaves. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but draft picks are going to be the most exciting thing about the Brewers in 2013, so I'm just suggesting it's possible.
Can they buy him out this year and offer him arbitration? I don't know the rules. If he accepts, he's guaranteed no less than 80% of his current salary, which would be about $9M.
He should be eligible to become a full-fledged FA after the expiration or buyout of his current contract. Salary arbitration is for players with 3-6 years of MLB service time. What I'm unsure about is whether the Brewers would be entitled to a comp pick after buying him out after this year. It may be possible. In my comments above, I assumed that a team buying a player out to cause him to enter free agency would not be entitled to compensation.
All players with expiring contracts are eligible for arbitration after their third year. In order for a team to receive compensatory picks for a departing free agent, they *must* have already offered him salary arbitration and been declined. This is separate from the arbitration process applied to super-2 through 6-year veterans. It applies to all pending free agents. It's the reason we didn't get comp picks for a guy like Ray Durham - he was a type B FA, but he was too likely to accept the arbitration offer and stay with the Brewers, so he was not offered arby.
The Brewers will offer arbitration to Fielder this year, and he'll decline. Those are certainties, and under the current CBA the Brewers would get two picks in the '12 draft due to his departure.
My question was whether declining the option on a guy like Rodriguez still entitles the brewers to offering him arbitration. I don't think it does, but I'm not 100% certain of this.
I'm not sure if I agree. I think they can decline his option and buy him out. He then declares for free agency. Once he does this, the Brewers can offer him arbitration. I'm not 100% sure of this, but I do believe they can. If he finishes 21 more games and his option vests, then obviously this is a moot point. Does anyone know for certain?
Rodriguez would be a Type-A free agent, meaning the Brewers would get 2 picks (like with Fielder) if he declines and signs elsewhere.
You're right that the risk is he accepts, but I'm not sure that's too much of a risk. Rodriguez is now represented by Scott Boras. Would Boras recommend K-Rod sign a one-year, $10M contract? I highly doubt that, especially considering the short careers of most MLB relievers and the particular blowup potential of K-Rod. Boras would be doing him a great disservice if he didn't sign a multi-year deal. The other part of this is that if Askford finishes strong, K-Rod may not be the closer here. Every appearance he makes where he doesn't get a save reduces his free agent value. Remember how overvalued closers are. I just don't think K-Rod would accept a 1-year, $10M-ish deal to stay on a team that probably won't win anything and where he may not close games.
Again I'm not totally sure about this, but I'm not aware of any prohibition to offering arbi to a player whose option you declined. As long as arbitration is offered and he doesn't accept (which, though many would disagree, I don't think he'd accept as said above), the Brewers stand to gain two picks in next year's draft for him. Those players certainly will be more valuable than whatever prospects the Brewers have traded away.
If the biggest risk is that he accepts, recall that the Brewers gave a 1-year, $10M contract to Eric Gagne. One-year contracts come at a huge premium. If the Brewers have any chance to compete for the postseason during the 5 years after this season, it would be next. I don't think a one-year contract like that for K-Rod is particularly bad.
If I am right about this, the potential draft picks would be a windfall in what otherwise was likely a very good trade.
Great points, Condy.
I can't imagine why they wouldn't receive the compensatory players for him. The Brewers are taking on his contract/salary and hypothetically offering him, I don't know why they wouldn't get the compensatory picks when he turns them down?
And as you said, $10M to keep him in a year where they're still trying to be competitive isn't a terrible downside at all for a proven, effective, 29 year-old reliever. Will he be overpaid, yes, but it's not awful. The Brewers still made the playoffs the year they gave Gagne the same deal. I have a hard time seeing K-Rod being that bad next year.
I wonder if Doug Melvin realized how amazingly smart this trade could turn out to be before he made it.
I had completely forgotten about the contract tender/arbitration portion of the process for FA's which precipitates the compensatory draft picks. I'm not sure why, as I've seen it in action, and I'm certain we've discussed the idea of the Brewers tendering a higher than market, not guaranteed to be declined, one year $28 mil offer to Fielder to try to compete next year.
I'm still skeptical about a lack of some provision in the CBA preventing a team from buying out an option year, tendering much lower arby for that same year and then receiving compensation for it. If it's possible, there's no doubt that'll be the course taken by the Brewers, so we should know by the end of the year.
Scott Boras is even more brilliant.
Clearly K-Rod wasn't getting that $17.5 mil, or at least it was incredibly unlikely.
According to Hardricourt's blog, I guess K-rod just agreed to restructure his contract and make the $17.5 mil bonus a mutual option, but up the buyout to $4 mil.
The Brewers can now pitch Boras' client worry-free and put him prominently on display for potential FA bidders to see the rest of the season without worrying about sitting him to avoid a looming ridiculous pay day.
Also, the Brewers can still offer arby at the end of the season and get draft-pick compensation if it's declined.
I think there are several MLB GMs smacking themselves upside the head right now. Awesome trade.
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