Note: There will be no pictures this week. Pictures are for winners.
Did the Packers choke?
This was the question that my brother and I were debating throughout the game. The answer is yes, but it wasn't so until the final 43 seconds that this happened. Yes, the Packers have a history of choking in big games under McCarthy. The two Vikings games last year, the Giants in 07, the Cardinals game last year (kinda), the Bears game this year, but they hung in, punch for punch, with the co-best team in the NFC at their place where they are incredibly hard to beat for 59:17 yesterday.
It's a game that should not have been in doubt, were it not for 1. a fluky fumble at the goal line that turned into a 14 point swing, 2. the challenge that wasn't on a critical 21 yard 4th down gain, wherein McCarthy repeatedly said his information came in too late and 3. Atlanta having the ball with 1:55 on the clock inside their own 5, and GB elected not to use either of its remaining timeouts. These are critical and disconcerting errors, but aren't evidence of an out and out choke job. Especially in light of the following:
Series 1
- 1st-1, GB1 0:40 J. Snelling rushed to the left for no gain
- 2nd-1, GB1 0:00 M. Turner rushed to the left for no gain
4th Quarter
- Atlanta continued
- 3rd-1, GB1 14:54 M. Ryan passed to T. Gonzalez to the right for no gain
- 4th-1, GB1 14:24 M. Turner rushed to the left for 1 yard touchdown. M. Bryant made PAT
Yes, Atlanta scored a touchdown. However, the Defense picked up their gigantic sacks and gave it everything they had against enormous runningbacks and a talented receiving core. And if you watched the fourth down play, the DLine had enough push up the middle to force the play outside. Against that line and those backs, that's an accomplishment in and of itself, even if the result was undesirable (farts in the general direction of the linebacker/corner/safety failing to keep contain). The jumbo d-line package is so much nicer than having to play TJ lang in goal line situations. Again, the outcome wasn't desirable, but the execution was absolutely cause for optimism. You'll forget that Atlanta is the Co-best team in the NFC. You would expect that team to score from the 1 yard line given four plays against any defense (I think this is the point that the "choker" group forgets. Atlanta is really fucking good and sometimes things that don't go Green Bay's way are because Atlanta is really fucking good, not because Green Bay choked).
The second piece of contrary evidence should already be apparent. I will break it down in appropriate segments below and explain why it gives me such tremendous hope.
- 1st-10, GB10 5:54 B. Jackson rushed to the left for 5 yard gain
- 2nd-5, GB15 5:30 A. Rodgers passed to A. Quarless to the left for 11 yard gain
The drive starts off with a nice 5 yard run that nobody was expecting. The run hadn't been there all day and is obviously cause for concern, although everybody knew coming into the game that Atlanta's defense was incredibly stout against the run, while Green Bay's running game was feeble, at best. Rodgers followed this up with a pass to Quarless for a first down.
- 1st-10, GB26 5:07 A. Rodgers passed to B. Jackson to the left for no gain
- 2nd-10, GB26 4:31 Green Bay committed 5 yard penalty
People point to the false starts as chokes. You're on the road in a dome. It is going to happen, no matter how much you prepare for it. Fuck, even Rodgers fucked up a snap, maybe even the play before (I don't remember where in the sequence it happened, I just recall that he threw to Jackson in an awful hurry).
- 2nd-15, GB21 4:26 A. Rodgers passed to A. Quarless down the middle for 19 yard gain
Another first down pass to Quarless. I cannot emphasize enough how incredibly important it is that Quarless continues to develop as a reliable receiving option. With Finley out and Driver hurt, teams are going to turn a *ton* of attention to Jennings. Having a TE that can consistently get open and make great catches really opens up the offense for a team that can barely run out of the tunnel.
- 1st-10, GB40 3:45 B. Jackson rushed to the left for 8 yard gain
- 2nd-2, GB48 3:17 A. Rodgers rushed to the right for 7 yard gain
Rodgers is a stone cold killer. After a nice running play call to Jackson, which again only happens when you're passing so effectively nobody pays attention to the run, Rodgers moves in the pocket to keep the play going, and ultimately runs for a first down. I don't remember seeing a white quarterback with as much pocket presence as Rodgers has since Elway and Young.
- 1st-10, ATL45 3:13 A. Rodgers incomplete pass to the right
- 2nd-10, ATL45 3:08 A. Rodgers passed to G. Jennings to the right for 15 yard gain
Greg Jennings runs after the catch. Remember when he used to do that a few years ago? This play was anti-choke, although not as much as the upcoming 4th down.
- 1st-10, ATL30 2:45 A. Rodgers passed to B. Jackson down the middle for 9 yard gain
- 2nd-1, ATL21 2:14 A. Rodgers incomplete pass to the left
- 3rd-1, ATL21 2:11 A. Rodgers incomplete pass to the left
- 4th-1, ATL21 2:03 A. Rodgers passed to J. Jones down the middle for 18 yard gain
Aaron Rodgers is a stone cold killer. I mentioned it to E earlier in the game, that Rodgers has that ice-water-running-through-his-veins look, almost to the point of being catatonic, definitely to the point of looking indifferent like Jay Cutler. However, you could see on Rodgers' touchdown run that, unlike Cutler, he gives a flying fuck about scoring and winning, he just knows that getting nervous and worked up works against you in pressure situations. This play was the most un-choke play Rodgers could have possibly designed. It was Favrian. Rodgers flashed that elite pocket presence again dodging two certain sacks, made the only throw he could to a receiver that had broken off his route, and kept the drive alive. I watched the rest of the game proudly sporting a hardon.
- 1st-3, ATL3 1:54 A. Rodgers sacked by J. Abraham. A. Rodgers fumbled. A. Rodgers recovered fumble
- Fuck. That's right. Atlanta's actually a good team. You can't always just score at will against good teams. Oh well, there are still three plays left and the Packers still have Aaron Rodgers.
- 2nd-6, ATL6 1:52 A. Rodgers incomplete pass to the right
- 3rd-6, ATL6 1:45 A. Rodgers passed to B. Jackson to the right for 1 yard gain
- 4th-5, ATL5 1:06 Green Bay committed 5 yard penalty
- Another false start. The crowd noise is clearly affecting the offense. However, as the announcers astutely point out, this opens up some lanes that wouldn't otherwise be there.You end up with 33% more field to work with.
- 4th-10, ATL10 0:56 A. Rodgers passed to J. Nelson to the left for 10 yard touchdown. M. Crosby made PAT
Both lines are gassed. There are about 24 fat guys laying on the ground at the line of scrimmage, and Rodgers backs to his left, fires a rocket toward the sidelines (cue Jim Rome rocket noises) and completes a pass with very little room to work with. 16 plays, 5:54 off the clock. The drive wasn't flawless, but it was magnificent in its execution in the drive's most high leverage situations. It was as clutch as clutch can clutch. Fuck, even Crosby made his kick.
Then, the inevitable. Special teams goes and fucks it all up
Green Bay kicked off, E. Weems returned kickoff for 40 yards. Green Bay committed 15 yard penalty
The return to the 35 was bad enough, inexcusable even. A larger choke than the facemasking, to be sure. Decent coverage wouldn't have necessitated a tackle-Weems-at-all-costs approach, and would have left Atlanta at least 25 yards further from FG distance, which was difficult for them to approach in the first place. So yes, in short, the Packers choked, but it wasn't the offense, or defense. It was special teams, which, as I note in the observations section, is effectively culpable in all four of the Packers' losses to date. I have more thoughts on the game, but I've outlined them below in observations.
Observations
- The Packers demonstrated that they and the Falcons are effectively the Co-best teams in the NFC. Atlanta has the best record and GB has the best point differential (and the best scoring defense in the NFL). With 5 to play, it will be essentially impossible for the Packers to get home field advantage. They're 1.5 back of Atlanta. However, as long as they take care of business, which means beating everybody but NE on the road, the Packers should end up with the 2 seed. That may very well mean a trip back to Atlanta for a potential NFC championship game, but I think this game was evidence that, at the very least, the Packers can hang with them punch for punch. Arguments to the contrary are grounds for institutionalization.
- It's finally time for Shawn Slocum to take a long walk off a short pier. The special teams killed GB in two games against Minnesota last year and have killed them in ALL FOUR losses this year. TD return by Hester, missed FG as time expired against Washington, a *critical* lined up over the center penalty against Miami, and that pitiful kick coverage at the end of the game today. By all measures, both Green Bay's offense and defense have been above average-to-excellent in the last two seasons while the special teams have been abysmal, among the worst in the league.
- Aaron Rodgers is a "championship" QB that doesn't have a championship yet. He has all the fucking swagger you could ever ask for. There are certain very good-to-excellent QBs that crumble when they know the pressure is on. We watched Favre do this for years in GB. Rodgers has begun to prove that he will not make those same mistakes when his back is against the wall. Incompletions are fine, turnovers are unacceptable, and he didn't make any quarterback turnovers yesterday (the fumble at the goalline is not a quarterback turnover). This gives me great hope that he can overcome #4
- I still have doubts whether McCarthy is a championship coach. They continue to be in games in spite of themselves. Letting the clock expire in the first half is inexcusable. Time management at the end of the Bears game was inexcusable. The special teams are inexcusable. They've lost four games this year, all by a field goal. Those little things are what makes the difference between wins and losses in 3 point games. You don't get to face Dallas and Minnesota every week in the playoffs, and if your ultimate goal is to win the Super Bowl, you're going to have to win those close games. I would have lost all hope that McCarthy was ever going to improve those deficiencies, but they have significantly cut down on penalties in recent weeks, meaning there's a chance that he could improve in other areas as well.
- All three goal line situations the Packers found themselves in yesterday emphasized how much they miss Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant. They can't run the ball, especially in short yardage situations. Grant wasn't great, but he was 6'1 225 and could pick up a yard on 3 plays if he needed to. Obviously Finley was a prototypical mismatch that could be relied upon in 3rd and 4th and goal situations. The team has done a lot to overcome those injuries and deserves a ton of credit, but there are times where their absence is definitely apparent.
- Roddy White was nowhere to be found yesterday. Obviously on a team with as much talent as Atlanta has, you're not going to be able to neutralize everybody, but the Packers held a guy averaging 8 catches and 100 yards per game to 5 and 49. A definite victory for the secondary.
- AJ Hawk sucks. He blew several tackles in key situations and I want to say he was responsible for not maintaining the defensive right side on Turner's 4th down TD. Another area where GB really misses the injured starter.
- The Bears are a legitimate threat, but their victory yesterday was the preferable outcome. As I mentioned in point 1, winning home field will be tough being 1.5 games behind Atlanta, but getting a playoff bye is just as important as winning home field. Obviously nobody out west will be earning a bye, so the 2 seed will come down to the winner of the east and north. Green Bay already holds a tiebreaker against philly thanks to a head-to-head victory, and still plays the Giants at home the day after Christmas, a game the Packers should win. As long as the Packers can take the north with at least 11 wins, they should secure the #2 seed. The issue then becomes winning the north. Chicago is 1.5 games ahead of Green Bay right now (how did that happen?) with road games against the three division opponents and home games against New England and NYJ. The Bears need to win out to win the division. Losses in any of those games, *especially* if GB beats NE and Detroit, will be devastating to tie-breakers for the bears. Assuming GB can beat Chicago at home on Jan 2, that would put them even, ceteris paribus. First tiebreaker is record within the division, which would be 5-1, assuming both teams win out. Then it comes down to common games. Chicago's remaining games are all common and/or within the division, so losses become critical.
- Point is, yesterday's loss hurt because it didn't have to be a loss, but it didn't hurt the overall picture for the Packers. If they keep it together and take care of business, 11-5 and a 2 seed should be well within their grasp. They proved yesterday that they can go into Atlanta and hang with the Falcons, so a trip to the Super Bowl at this juncture isn't totally out of the question
That's a lot of typing. I think it makes sense. Let me know your thoughts in the comments.
Labels: Packers, Swagger