After a several year hiatus, I'm resurrecting this segment at the request of Condescendy
. I've selected three games this weekend for which I like the betting lines. I will conduct this slightly differently than in years past as I will be picking either the Notre
Dame game or the Green Bay game, but not both. I believe attempting to pick both had a negative impact on my record in the past. Here are the picks, along with brief justifications:
1. Florida International
@ Alabama -34
Well no shit Alabama is going to win the game. However, Florida International was the only team in FBS
that didn't play a game last weekend. For a college team to be a week behind, on the road, against a dominantly
superior opponent is a death sentence. Lock of the weekend right here.
@ Tulane +17.5
The old adage
goes 'you're never as good as your last victory or as bad as your last loss'. BYU
picked up a huge victory against Oklahoma to be sure, but gamblers tend to have short memories and bet based solely on the most recent performance, especially high-profile national upsets. Hangover effect is a factor as well. The one fact that concerns me here
is that mormons
don't gamble, and as a result, there isn't any home team bias being priced in on the Cougars' side.
3. Pittsburgh @ Buffalo +10.5
When in doubt, take the points. I'm not really in doubt, but I like what Turner Gill has done at Buffalo and I like getting double-digit points at home.
1. Chicago @ Green Bay -3.5
2. Redskins @ Giants -6.5
The Redskins are terrible, more terrible than people realize. Jason Campbell just isn't a good NFL quarterback.
3. San Francisco +6
The lone road team I picked this weekend. Arizona struggled mightily in the preseason and may have to fight a superbowl
hangover this year. I know little about San Francisco, but I think this is just a suckers' line.