2009 Brewers Top Prospects

I'm going to follow the format I had last year and rank the prospects based on a percentage formula. The best prospct in baseball would be a 100% and the worst 0%.

1) Jeremy Jeffress – 84%
2) Mat Gamel – 83%
3) Angel Salome – 81%
4) Alcides Escobar – 80%
5) Brett Lawrie – 79%
6) Cole Gillespie – 75%
7) Taylor Green – 68%
8) Jon Lucroy – 68%
9) Cody Scarpetta – 67%
10) Lorenzo Cain – 67%

The system is certainly down from where it was over the past several years. While the Brewers have some depth of mid-level prospects, they don’t have any surefire star prospects. Last year, they had Parra and LaPorta, who both ranked higher than anyone this year. Had LaPorta stayed, he would have been the top prospect and ranked 94%. With him the Brewers would have had one of the better systems in baseball. Also, I would have rated Michael Brantley at 77%. The Brewers system really took a dent from the Sabathia trade.

It may surprise some people that I ranked Jeffress as the top prospect. After all, I’ve always been down on the guy, mostly because I hate when the Brewers use a first round pick on a “live high school arm.” Prospectus, Baseball America and John Sickels all ranked him as the fourth best prospect in the system. Jeffress didn’t have a great 2008 season. He sat out the first two months thanks to hitting the bong. He then posted a 4.08 ERA in 79.1 innings in High-A and a 5.52 ERA in 14.2 innings in Double-A. But, he did have a combined 115/52 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s obviously got the stuff to strike people out. I don’t know if he will ever develop enough control or a third pitch to compliment his fastball and curveball, but the potential is there. The thing I like, and the reason I advanced him in the rankings, is because his elbow hasn’t blown up. I hate seeing high school pitchers drafted mainly because of the injury risk. Jeffress has avoided the career threatening injury so far and is getting to the age and minor league level where the risk is becoming less of a concern. The other reason I ranked him highest is because he’s a starting pitcher or at worst a closer. He isn’t blocked at the major league level by any means. There is a premium on pitching prospects, despite their burnout rate, and especially on a team like the Brewers. He’ll spend the season in Double-A and I anticipate he’ll be the top prospect in the system at the end of the season.

Gamel is a good hitter, but he has a number of question marks. First is his defense and position. He’s shown some progress at third base, but that’s not saying much. If he played third for the Brewers in 2009, his glove would cost the team 20+ runs. He’s a good hitter, but not good enough to make up for that like Braun was able to do. The second question is whether last year’s explosive first half performance, where he had about an 1.100 OPS in Double-A, was a fluke. His second half wasn’t very good, and his last 100 AB’s were downright bad. Let’s hope he just ran out of gas. He can’t play third and has never played another corner, where he’d be blocked in the majors anyway. Expect a full season at Triple-A, a September call-up and the Brewers reevaluating his position at the end of the season.

Angel Salome was probably the most pleasant surprise of 2008, batting .360 with a .973 OPS in a full season at Double-A Huntsville. For a catcher, that’s phenomenal. The issue again is defense, and Salome's is a huge question mark. His body doesn’t do him any favors, as he’s basically Prince Fielder version 2.0, but without as much muscle. But you never know. Tony Eusebio and Mike “Spanky” Lavalliere both had memorable major league careers. Salome is the best hitting catcher in the organization and should be on the roster should anything happen to KenDoll or Rivera.

Alcides Escobar is ranked as the top prospect by Prospectus and Baseball America. While he showed great improvement in 2008, I’m still not sold. I just don’t think he’ll ever hit. Yeah, he hit .328 in Huntsville, showing very good defense per usual. But his OPS was .797. He’ll make the majors and probably have a career, but there are a lot of defense-first shortstops floating around. It’s the ones who can hit that become all-stars, and I just don’t see Escobar hitting. There’s a lot of talk about Hardy being traded or moved and making room for Escobar immediately. That would be a huge mistake and detrimental to Escobar’s development.

Lawrie’s stock actually improved in my book when he moved to second base from catcher before ever playing a minor league game for the Brewers. It’s hard to grade someone who never played, but I liked his selection in last year’s draft.

Cole Gillespie has remained the most consistent and overlooked player in the minors. He’s probably the most patient hitter in the system, walking 75 times and striking out 102 times last year. As a corner outfielder, he’s blocked, and he doesn’t have the flashy tools to draw attention. He’s also a bit old for his position – he’ll be 24/25 in 2009. But he posted an .858 OPS in Huntsville last year, stole 17 bases, only being caught once, and hit 14 home runs. If Corey Hart had Gillespie’s approach, he’d be the best right fielder in baseball.

While Gillespie is the most patient hitter in the system, Green has the best plate discipline, walking 61 times and striking out only 59 times. He also can actually play third base. If he develops some more power, he’ll be a very good prospect. Unfortunately, his 2009 season may be disappointing in that he’s got a broken wrist and will be out until May at the earliest. And wrist injuries can warp an entire season’s numbers.

Lucroy is a solid catching prospect. He’s got just enough power, a good enough plate approach and decent enough defensive skills to have a major league career. He should see most of his time in Double-A this year, which will be a very telling jump.

Scarpetta is my breakout pick for 2009. He’s big and has a very lively arm. The 20-year-old had a 58/16 K:BB in 36.1 innings in rookie ball. He’ll be the pitcher I most want to see when I attend Timber Rattlers games this summer.

It was a close call between Lorenzo Cain and Omar Aguilar, but I went with Cain at 10. Cain has the defense and toolset to make him loved by viewers and scouts. Unfortunately, he is still pretty raw and the power potential is just that, potential. He’s done enough to progress and should be starting in Triple-A at age 23 this year. His ranking takes a sizeable hit because I’m not sure if he can play center field.

Omar Aguilar is the runner up. Though he’s not in my top-10, he may be the prospect most likely to contribute to the Brewers in 2009. He has the stuff to close and will be pitching most likely in Triple-A. In all likelihood, he will be better than several of the pitchers the Brewers throw this year. I think we will see him at some point in the season, and if he really develops could be the closer in 2010.

The other “prospect” who, like Aguilar, could contribute meaningfully is Brad Nelson. Nelson was the comeback prospect of the year last year, and I love his 73/77 BB:K ratio. I don’t ever see him being a starter on the Brewers, but he could be the best pinch hitter available on the team.

Hi Guys!

Anybody want to party with me on Opening Day?

Hope Springs More Poor Draft Picks

The draft is less than 2 days away, and I am very excited to see some of the poorly made draft choices that are sure to made — many by myself, of course.

By the way, kudos to the Dallas police department. Jesse and Rev. Sharpton are en route to make personal appearances. Enjoy!

I just heard to comingled phrases of "Yankee season tickets" and "moderately priced" by Buster on ESPN. Anyone else find that ironic?

How about the "leaked" images of the new Lions logo and script? Where is the Kiper analysis on that? That. alone, must be worth a couple of wins next year. Right?

Fantasy Baseball 2009 - Outfield

Here is the final offensive installment of my rankings. You'll notice hometown slugger Ryan Brown atop the list, which makes sense given his age and his production to date. The only thing that will prevent him from being a top-5 fantasy baseball player this year is his intercostal injury. As far as over- and under-rated players, I think the names that jump out immediately are Beltran, Kemp, and sHart on the underrated side and Hamilton, Holiday, and Soriano on the overrated side. Beltran is the type of player that could make your team into a championship team if you can snag him in round two. Likewise, taking a chance on Josh Hamilton in the top ten picks could end up costing you in the long run. However, Hamilton, like Hardy, suffers from his complete lack of speed, so if you plan to load up on speedsters, he moves up the board here a spot or two. Finally, below you'll find the first round based on my projections (I don't see any pitchers worth using a first-round pick on at this juncture).

1. Reyes
2. Ramirez
3. Wright
4. Pujols
5. Braun
6. Beltran
7. Sizemore
8. Berkman
9. Kinsler
10. McClouth
11. Kemp
12 Rodriguez

Look different from popular opinion? Good.

Outfield

Fantasy Baseball 2009 - Catchers

Another controversial one. If you've been paying attention to the fantasy baseball presses this offseason, you may have noticed a lot of discussion over whether Matt Wieters is worth his draft position. You may have also noticed that PECOTA rated him very highly as well. Unsurprisingly, here you'll see his upside-adjusted total to be on par with that of position-co-leader Russell Martin, and his Raw Total on par with catcher staples Brian McCann and Joe Mauer. And this is for a guy that may not make the team out of spring training (really the only reason his upside is *only* a 5 right now). Aside from Wieters' name at the top, the only other remarkable thing about catchers is how utterly unremarkable they are as a group. If you don't end up with one of the top five guys (and Joe Mauer's health jeopardizes his standing in the top-five), you're really best off waiting until you can land a high-upside guy like Sandoval, Iannetta, Clement, Napoli or Towles in the late, late rounds. FYI, there's a post to discuss Marquette basketball below somewhere.

Catcher

Fantasy Baseball 2009 - Shortstop

Wellllll, this one is going to be controversial. Naturally, the first thing you're going to notice is that Jose Reyes scored a 17 on a 10 point scale for stolen bases. I understand that seems truly bizahwr, but PECOTA projects him to post 26 more stolen bases than anybody else in the league this year, and 40 more than the 11th best base-stealer. Further, three of the top ten drag you down in the other four categories - Pierre, Bourne, and Taveras, and a fourth, Ellsbury, isn't doing a whole lot to carry his weight, either. Reyes can single-handedly win you this category, or at least keep you competitive, and considering that 20% of your offensive points come from stolen bases, he's worth every one of those 17 points.

Secondly, you'll notice that a player like JJ Hardy becomes much more valuable when you ignore steals. Say, for argument's sake, you're able to nab Brian Roberts and BJ Upton at 2nd and OF. Your steals are more or less set for the season, so you don't need to rely on your shortstop for steals. A guy like Hardy is suddenly almost as valuable as Reyes and Ramirez to you (four category total of 28 compared to 32 and 38, respectively) than he is when taking into account steals. Steals still matter, but what does an extra 40 stolen bases matter when you've already got the category won? I think this explains Condescendy's approach to the ratings in the past. Be wise to taking this into consideration when approaching your upcoming draft. Also, if you have any thoughts on how to evenly incorporate the results of skewed distribution with the results of four normal distributions, I'm all ears.

Shortstop

Fantasy Baseball 2009 - Third Base

Sorry for the delay on this one. I spent all last week traveling for work and watching NCAA basketball games projected on my ceiling. I should be able to finish the position players this week, but would love some help with starting and relief pitching if anybody is willing. With third base, you notice there's David Wright, and then everybody else. He obviously benefits from his marginal stolen bases over Miguel Cabrera and health over Alex Rodriguez. He actually grades out higher than Albert Pujols, again because of the stolen bases. Given the scarcity at the position, Wright is a pretty damn good option after Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez in your drafts this year. As for sleepers, Mark Reynolds grades out pretty well on his power numbers alone, but anybody that drafts him will have to worry about 1. AVG and 2. Playing Time. Larry Jones will once again provide superior AVG and roughly 400 PA's this season.

Third Base

Not the way any of us saw this ending, I'm sure

And I can't remember the last time I was more impressed with two outgoing players as I was McNeal and Matthews on Sunday.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Second Base

Unlike first basemen, there's not a lot of valuable talent past the first few players here. The top six or seven guys are all definitely assets to your team, but the rest will be drafted simply because 1. you need stolen bases or 2. you need to fill the 2B spot somehow. The list also exposes Chone figgins as a complete and total fraud. His ranking alone shows the dangers of drafting players exclusively for one stat category. He'll just kill you in the other categories. If you're looking for a sleeper, I think it's Kelly Johnson. He's not that much less valuable than Dan Uggla but can be found rounds later.

Second Base

2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - First Base

With Condescendy too busy carousing in Europe to make the rankings this year, the responsibility has fallen to me, 9th place finisher in last years BCS league. Caveat emptor.

I handle my ratings a little different from Condescendy, though the format and totals should be very similar. I use BaseballProspectus' PECOTA projections for the player-dependent stats (HR, AVG, SB) and last year's totals for R and RBI. I am also tougher on players in the player-dependent categories. You'll see there aren't many 9's and 10's in those categories, mostly because it's hard to separate oneself from the pack. A team full of 7's in any one player-dependent category should come close to winning that category.

As for the Runs and RBI, I expect more unpredictability and choose to attribute less to each player than I do to team and lineup spot. You'll notice more 9's and 10's, and overall less separation between players. A 10 in RBI is clearly not the same as a 10 in Home Runs, so they should not be compared, but I think you'll find the overall comparative value between players to be pretty accurate. These categories are easier to make up by just playing guys who play in run-scoring or producing spots in the lineup.

I used the old 'upside' category as a catchall for three different variables: Age/talent (self explanatory), team change (self explanatory) and lack of comparable players. Guys like Gary Sheffield trick the PECOTA model some because there haven't been many players like him before and they tend to undervalue him. I mention Sheff specifically because PECOTA has been WAY low on him the last two years.

Finally, I didn't list any prospects at 1B because the only ML ready prospects with legitimate potential, Justin Smoak and Lars Anderson, are essentially blocked at the ML level. On to the rankings . . .

First Base Rankings

One final observation - You'll notice some totals go up to 11 (and 12). These players are heads and shoulders above the rest of the major leagues in these categories and are ranked as such. I'm fairly certain Jose Reyes is going to rank as a 15 or 16 in SB, just FYI.