Weekend Gambler: September 26-27
We're getting on things early this week as I'm making picks for a Thursday night game. Current Tallies are Bub at 6-6 and Condescendy at 6-5 (I'll give you the benefit of the doubt on USC and BYU).
Thursday, September 24
Mississippi @ South Carolina +3.5
Mississippi might be the most overrated team in the country, while South Carolina gets the benefit of a home field on a short week, 3.5 points, and tougher warmup games.
Friday, September 25
Missouri -7 @ Nevada
Nevada is godawful. They lost by 35 to Notre Dame and 15 at Colorado St. Missouri has actually looked decent so far, including a blowout of a BCS conference opponent.
Saturday, September 26
Wake Forest -2 @ Boston College
Boston College netted 54 total yards against their only BCS opponent this year, a middling Clemson team. They pounded two other opponents, but those opponents happen to be the absolute dregs of college football, Kent St. and Northeastern.
Sunday, September 27
Green Bay -6.5 @ St. Louis
St. Louis is worse than the Lions. I don't care how many eight year old girls are playing safety for the Packers, they just need to hold Stephen Jackson under 200 yards to win by three scores.
Tennessee +3 @ New York Jets
Everybody loves the Jets right now because they beat the Patriots, but they still have a rookie quarterback. The Titans struggle against the pass but excel against the run defensively. I also expect no fewer than two touchdowns of 40+ yards out of Chris Johnson.
San Francisco @ Minnesota -7
It pains me to say this, but Minnesota looks unstopable. Their first half offense is nothing special, but trying to tackle Adrian Peterson 35 times again is bound to wear any defense down.
Labels: Gambling
posted by Brew City Bub @ 8:32 AM
6 comments
6 Comments:
Some news and notes before I get going on my picks this week.
1) I would never pick college football games, so don't count my comments against me. I actually haven't watched more than 15 minutes of any college game this year and legitimately have no clue. Will that stop me from critiquing TB's picks? Absolutely not.
2) With his start last night, Chris Narveson has now been the second most valuable starter the Brewers have had this season. That feat would be more impressive if he wasn't the third most valuable starting pitcher before he even started a game. Jeff Suppan is the only pitcher who has "positive" value other than Narveson and Gallardo. Suppan has been worth approximately 0.06 wins more than a replacement pitcher. Everyone else has been worse than replacement. I (and pretty much everyone else) have given Narveson a lot of shit. First, his name sounds like one of those guys, you know? Like Obermueller, Winkelsas, Spurling, etc. Also, he's been minor league fodder, the definition of replacement level. But Narveson deserves some credit. He's done what no starting pitcher has done this season. Exceeded expectations. He deserves credit for being the only pleasant surprise starting pitcher above Double-A. I'm not joking. Actually, to be fair, Suppan has been a pleasant surprise. Not joking there, either, even though he is getting paid approximately $200,000,000 per win he produces above replacement level (also not a joke - I actually did the math).
3) The Packers cut Aaron Rouse and signed some Italian goon who previously played on the Colts to play safety. I am a fan of this. Nick Collins gets hurt in approximately half the games he plays, forcing Rouse to play. In those games he is forced to play, Aaron Rouse is injured 100% of the time. Aaron Rouse therefore is useless. New guy provides a buffer making Jarrett Bush less likely to play. That is a great thing. Of course, this begs the question, "why didn't they just cut Bush?" Having seen the special teams' play, particularly Bush's, I'm not receptive to the argument that Bush is vital to the special teams. I don't care that he's the captain of the special teams. This is really beginning to frustrate me and I'm sure most packers fans.
What's frustrating is that the Packers safeties are constantly hurt and in an attempt to fill a void at safety, the team cuts an experienced back up who started at least six games last year to make room for another safety who was cut by another team.
I read about Giordano being the best available option on Monday so I'm obviously happy they pulled the trigger on this deal. That being said, I'm still baffled as to why THREE full backs occupy spots on the 53 man roster. Unless we see pass formations with two FBs in the backfield on Sunday, I can't help but think cutting Rouse is a dumb move given the team's situation...and I don't particularly like the guy, either.
BCS would be proud.
Here are my picks. I'm giving an AFC special this week.
Pittsburgh (-4.0) over Cincinnati.
Pittsburgh lost to an underrated Bears team because it missed two chippy field goals in the last 10 minutes of the game. Cinci beat a Packers team that was without 2 offensive linemen and committed 17 penalties. Cinci is overrated and Pittsburgh is underrated. 4 points is not nearly enough here.
Jacksonville (+3.5) over Houston. These are essentially the same team in terms of talent. Houston is at home, but they'd have to win by more than a field goal to cover. I'm going with Jacksonville.
Cleveland (+13.0) over Baltimore.
I agree that Baltimore is really good. But 13 points is a lot of points, especially for a Baltimore team whose offense is still suspect in my opinion. Baltimore should completely dominate this game and win 12-0.
Jets (-3.0) over Tennessee.
I'm jumping on the Jets bandwagon. This was a good team last year before Favre dismantled them. Tennessee was better last year but has not looked good so far. The Jets should remember to cover Chris Johnson and thus stifle the Titans. Neither team has a q-back, so I'm going with the home team.
Denver (-1.0) over Oakland.
Denver has actually looked pretty decent this year, much to my surprise. I can't get over how bad Jamarcus Russell is.
Indianapolis (+2.5) over Arizona.
Indy had the ball for 14 minutes against Miami. They were dominated, right? No. They won the fucking game because their offense is really good. They looked bad because Miami was able to run the ball so effectively. Arizona is not that kind of team. As good as their offense looked last week, Indy's is better.
I like your picks (other than that foolish Jets pick). I thought a lot about Cleveland, but I figured the Ravens defense alone to be good enough for two touchdowns. I also like the Denver pick. Russell is terrible, and Denver's defense has looked pretty good under Mike Nolan.
I thought last night went well. I'm surprised LIFM didn't come here and tell me what a moron I was for betting SC.
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