Fearless Football Predictions '09

After a several year hiatus, I'm resurrecting this segment at the request of Condescendy. I've selected three games this weekend for which I like the betting lines. I will conduct this slightly differently than in years past as I will be picking either the Notre Dame game or the Green Bay game, but not both. I believe attempting to pick both had a negative impact on my record in the past. Here are the picks, along with brief justifications:

1. Florida International @ Alabama -34

Well no shit Alabama is going to win the game. However, Florida International was the only team in FBS that didn't play a game last weekend. For a college team to be a week behind, on the road, against a dominantly superior opponent is a death sentence. Lock of the weekend right here.

2. BYU @ Tulane +17.5

The old adage goes 'you're never as good as your last victory or as bad as your last loss'. BYU picked up a huge victory against Oklahoma to be sure, but gamblers tend to have short memories and bet based solely on the most recent performance, especially high-profile national upsets. Hangover effect is a factor as well. The one fact that concerns me here is that mormons don't gamble, and as a result, there isn't any home team bias being priced in on the Cougars' side.

3. Pittsburgh @ Buffalo +10.5

When in doubt, take the points. I'm not really in doubt, but I like what Turner Gill has done at Buffalo and I like getting double-digit points at home.

NFL

1. Chicago @ Green Bay -3.5

Obviously.

2. Redskins @ Giants -6.5

The Redskins are terrible, more terrible than people realize. Jason Campbell just isn't a good NFL quarterback.

3. San Francisco +6 @ Arizona

The lone road team I picked this weekend. Arizona struggled mightily in the preseason and may have to fight a superbowl hangover this year. I know little about San Francisco, but I think this is just a suckers' line.