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17 comments:
Good post.
I don't think anyone on this board would disagree. Here's the reality. The Brewers are now a game under .500. Baseball Prospectus gives the Brewers between a 4-7% chance of making the playoffs. The Brewers have fallen 4 games behind the Cubs, who are a vastly more talented team. The Cubs started this year more than 10 games favored over the Brewers. Despite numerous disappointing seasons by cubs players, they're still well ahead of the Brewers. When those players progress towards their means, the cubs should find themselves over 10 games ahead of the Brewers at season's end.
The Brewers find themselves in an extreme sellers' market. All but 10 teams believe they have a chance to compete this season, and most of those teams are actively looking to upgrade at the deadline. Several of those teams, the Orioles, Padres, Reds and Royals, have virtually nothing to trade or have only young players who they will not trade.
The Brewers have many players they can trade: Looper, Suppan (though no one would want him . . . or would they?), Hoffman, Cameron, Counsell, Lopez, Bush, and even Hardy. Returns on those players will far exceed their value to the Brewers (in Suppan's case, the Brewers may be able to settle a liability by paying only half or 3/4 of the debt).
This year figured to be a rebuilding year, and it has been just that. Manny Parra shit the bed, Hart didn't rebound and Hardy fell apart. Though Hall's performance has exceeded expectations, his production could be easily replicated next year by any pitcher on the roster or any minor league position player. What's disappointing is that the Brewers lose a couple useful players next year (Cameron and Hoffman) and have absolutely no one to replace them in the minors. Of course, next year offers addition by substraction. The Brewers will rid themselves of KenDoll and cut Hall, but they still owe Suppan and Hall over $20 million in 2010. This will likely prohibit any major free agent deals. It's therefore hard to imagine the Brewers taking the next step forward in 2010 without some help in the way of cheap, young talent.
However, major league ready young talent is basically impossible to find these days. Teams finally value their MLB-ready prospects accurately. It'd be great if the Brewers could package some guys and at least get a middle-level starting pitching prospect who could produce in 2010. If nothing else, get some prospects that may be trading chips in the offseason or ready by 2011.
The Brewers' window is not closed in 2009, but it would be dramatically imprudent for the Crew to acquire rental players at the expense of any more farmhands this season. Again, with a 4-7% chance of making the playoffs, the Brewers need a reality check. I do not anticipate Melvin to sell because of the fan backlash. Fans truly believe the Brewers are "a pitcher away." This is not 2008, and C.C. Sabathia is not there for the Brewers. Melvin would commit PR suicide if he started trading away players. Though I really want to see him do that, I'd be content if he just doesn't trade away any prospects.
"Favre always did have a good arm. I wonder if he could pitch?" ---My buddy Al
I'm on board. Sell.
Condy, you make some excellent points here, the most understated of which is that this is an extreme sellers market right now. There's real value for a shitbird like Braden Looper in a market like this. I would love to see the Brewers take a Neal Huntington approach (how about that fuckin trade today) and sell everything that's not tied down, but they can't afford to do that from a PR standpoint. Hoffman could easily go, as could Lopez, Counsell, and Kendall. Bags of balls or whatever, sell them for their market price.
They just can't afford to get rid of Cameron or any of their starting pitching right now. Cameron admittedly has a fair amount of value, probably second-most of any of the Brewers tradeable pieces after Hoffman. However, it'd just create a gap in center next year as the Brewers have a realistic opportunity to re-sign Cameron and extend what has been a mutually beneficial relationship to date. If they ship him out of town, any and all goodwill goes with him, and we're likely stuck with an unacceptably subpar centerfielder next season.
Neither can the Brewers afford to dish Looper, because losing another starter could cause things to get really ugly, really quickly. If the Brewers collapse down the stretch UHHHGAIN, especially as a result of calculated organizational moves, people, namely casual fans, are gonna get pissed. Mark Attanasio can't afford that right now.
The Brewers have probably gotten lucky to have lost the last two games in the fashion that they did. This was a major wakeup call to fans. The Brewers' record has been much better than their performance all season long. They're 4.5 games above where they should be, meaning they've been very lucky to date. They should be 44-55, 10 games behind the Cardinals right now. Fans definitely did not understand this, but losing 2 games brutally to the Nationals has caused fans to get cynical and give up on this year. While that hurts revenues in the short term, this realization was inevitable. It is better to have fans figure that out now and the Brewers not acquire Washburn or any other middling pitcher. Reading the rumors today, there is speculation that Melvin has ceased all acquisition efforts and may be scrapping the season.
So I'm hesitant to say any more that this would be PR suicide. Losing to the Nationals by 20 runs was the PR suicide. And I believe Melvin & Co. recognize this.
With that in mind, I think there is a possibility, albeit a slight one, that the Brewers trade Cameron, Looper, Hoffman or others. Trading Cameron would not preclude him from signing with the Brewers if he wanted to be traded to a contender. It would preclude the Brewers from offering arbitration and getting him at a potentially reduced price than he'd get on the market, and I agree that it may not be the right move if they wanted him in 2010. Unfortunately, I can't think of a better option in 2010. If the outfield market is like it was this last offseason, though, there will be plenty of cheap outfield talent for the taking.
And I'd like to disagree about Looper, who has a 4.8 ERA and has surrendered the most home runs in baseball. How can the Brewers not have someone who can at least closely resemble that? Sadly, I don't know if they have anyone. With Suppan headed to the DL, he won't be traded, which is also disappointing. I know Mike Burns struggled, but he can't be that much worse than Looper in the long term, can he? But neither Suppan nor Looper are worth anything to this team if you are only concerned with making the postseason. Looper won't be here next year, and they aren't competing this year. So trade his ass.
Hoffman offers the most possible in return. As much as I enjoy his presense, he should be traded immediately.
I also think that the Brewers could do more of a creative trade for a player who could help both this year and next. I suppose I wouldn't object to getting a pitcher with a higher price tag, like Washburn, if the Brewers gave up players like Cameron or Counsell, as long as no prospects are exchanged.
If nothing else, the Brewers should dump salary as soon as possible to sign 2009 draft picks and Ben Sheets in the offseason.
Holy crap, the Pirates follow that one up by trading Freddy Sanchez for Tim Alderson. I want to be a Pirates fan, this is fun to watch!
Brew Crew Ball linked us again - they must really like you BCB. Anyways, I've never been more embarassed to be a Brewers fan than the last week. Condy is right that we were playing quite a bit above our run differential for some time and our luck was probably going to end. But could anyone predict this kind of shit-down-your-leg meltown by the entire rotation? That is some stinky poo.
It actually gets me kind of angry at Jack Z for nailing so many decent hitting prospects and 2 complete monsters but totally munching balls on just about every pitching prospect he drafted. If you are going to be one-sided, we all know damn well what side you want to be strong on. Just look at the Giants and Twins.
Sweet. Just did a search of their site - they picked up this little nugget, too. We're famous! http://www.brewcrewball.com/2009/4/13/832925/mondays-frosty-mug
Did anyone ever think we would miss Dave Bush this much?
Yes, actually. We knew coming into the season that the Brewers had absolutely no pitching depth, so any loss was bound to hurt the team.
Also, Dave Bush is clearly a better major league pitcher than Jon Lester, so . . . there's that, too.
You've got to love that he's at least sticking to his guns on the Bush-Lester issue.
Um, wow. Fucking wow. Alderson for the Man With The Magic Wand?! If that's the going rate for .750 OPSing second basemen, the Brewers should trade Lopez, McGehee and Counsell pretty much now.
The Giants need a CF. Maybe the Brewers can get Bumgartner, Cain and Lincecum for Cameron. Hell, throw in Buster Posey. Just when you're ready to give credit to Brian Sabean, the worst GM in modern memory, he pulls some shit like this. The going rate for a top pitching prospect is a major league star, not Freddy Sanchez. Not even close.
Jesus, Sabean just tosses out really promising AA pitching prospects for absolute feces. The fucking Pirates would have given us Sanchez for Roque Mercedes. How clueless do you really have to be? I am at work so cannot verify my allegations but I'm pretty sure he is a top 30 prospect in ALL OF BASEBALL. The main reason he's not rated higher than Drew Baumgartner is that he doesn't throw 98mph (at least I don't think so).
If I was the Giant's scouting director, I would look for a new gig. Do you know how absolutely enraged I'd be if he gave up one of my recent premier pitching draftees for Magic Wand Sanchez? Unbelievable.
C'mon now Slash, you know I don't half ass things . . .
As for Alderson, I smell a bit of a Jose Capellan situation here. If he's as good as we all think he is, there's no way the Giants give him up for Freddy Sanchez. They're just not that dumb. Keith Law said that Alderson's velocity is down in the last two years, and as a result his star has fallen some. He's got outstanding control, especially for a kid at least a year (and probably two) young for AA ball, but his ceiling may not be what it was once perceived to be. It's still a king's ransom for Freddy Sanchez, but perhaps not Larry Anderson-for-Jeff Bagwell.
I saw that by Keith Law, too. Sure, Alderson's velocity may be down, but it's down from the high 90's. Alderson is also just 20 years old and pitching in Double-A. He's holding his own there. He doesn't have an injury history. He's 6'6". Unlike Capellan, he has good control and much more projectable offspeed pitches. He will be under team control until at least the end of the 2016 season. If his velocity is down, it may be the result of being tired. He's lanky and really young. It's a long season.
Freddy Sanchez is a net negative value. His salary is higher than his worth. He was traded for a pitching prospect worth many many millions of dollars.
Sure, Alderson probably won't be a Cy Young winner. Very few pitchers are. Like less than 1%. So I always have a problem with that argument about a pitcher's ceiling. Alderson's ceiling is as a really good starting pitcher. He could be dominant. Last time I checked, there's not a team in baseball over the past 80 years that couldn't have used someone like Alderson when he makes the majors.
There is no justification about this trade. Saying the Giants are down on Alderson, though perhaps true, demonstrates the Giants' ignorance about the value of young pitching. Much more likely, the Giants were just high on Sanchez and unable to determine what the market for him actually was. A .300 batting average looks great from a second baseman, and that's all the Giants could digest from this situation.
Here's a real quote for Sabean regarding Sanchez:
"A kid that has distinguished himself as an All-Star three out of the last four years and a batting champ within that time frame. The timing's great."
First of all, he's turning 32 in a couple of months. He's not a kid, even though he's built like one. Second, what kind of GM bases a major trade decision on all-star appearances? Finally, he won the batting crown 4 years ago. A great accomplishment, sure, but not considering his career .336 OBP and .756 OPS.
I know I'm preaching to the choir, but Freddy Sanchez an average major league player.
I think you missed my statement "It's still a king's ransom for Freddy Sanchez"
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