Okay, we've all uttered those words tonight. Let's take a look at this situation. The Brewers essentially have two options with Suppan: (1) send him to the DL and say that he's got "deadarm" or some other made up ailment or (2) release him.
Good general managers will release a guy like Suppan, even if it's "throwing away" $20 million. Even the Tigers knew well enough to release Damian Easley and, more recently, Gary Sheffield. Suppan is the definition of a sunk cost. Why go with option (1)? Is there ever going to be a time he'd be a better option to start than someone pitching in triple-a?
I've been a Brewers fan my whole life. I've seen some of the worst pitchers in baseball history. Suppan is worse than Jimmy Haynes. Than Wayne Franklin. Than Wes Obermueller. Matt Kinney. Later version of Jamie Navarro probably even. No, he's notas bad as Ben Hendrickson, but if he's the only pitcher in franchise history who I can think of who is definately worse than Suppan, then what are we waiting for here . . .
When do we think Suppan gets released? I honestly think there's about a 75% chance he's gone before the year is over, ending what is probably the worst contract this team has ever handed out.
49 comments:
Can the Brewers just do with Suppan what The Bub did with Moyer and cut him in the middle of a start???
Suppan already only usually delivers half of a start. Cutting him halfway through that would create some sort of fraction of a start that I don't think an of us are capable of calculating.
Was anyone else watching when Joe Morgan and Co. discussed OPS tonight? I may be wrong, but I think I actually heard Bill Fremp's voice in the background when Morgan promoted OPS and stated that his only objection with the stat, [paraphrased], is that it undervalues really good OBP guys, which is the same objection I have with the stat. Now how in the hell did Joe Morgan come up with that? Unless Michael Winslow, or some other brilliant voiceman is employed by ESPN, Morgan is literally just repeating what Bill Framp tells him.
I think contract value is affecting our perspective some. For instance, I'm fairly certain the Ford twins sucked harder than Suppan. However, as they weren't making any more than Jake Taylor we don't recall them as spitefully. Further, I suspect there's a smaller than 20% chance he gets cut this year. Sports execs are egotistical individuals and you will very infrequently see them admit a mistake like that by cutting a guy before his final year. Melvin is even less likely to drop Suppan if Jorge Julio has his ear as Suppan is the only dick preventing George from running away with HIAWDA April and the 2009 Hendy.
Believe it or not, I am capable of detaching emotions from analysis, even as I watch Suppan walk 4 batters in a row against the cubs. So I didn't make my statements out of pure emotion.
I do recognize the possibility that our views are clouded by the contract that he has. But I overcame that potential conflict in my analysis. If you're looking at value/$, there's no doubt Suppan is the worst pitcher in franchise history.
I fully admit I'm not a baseball scout, but on a "pure stuff" basis, Suppan is the second worst pitcher I've ever seen pitch for the Brewers. He tops out at 88mph. His breaking ball is absolute garbage. I don't even know if he throws a changeup. He has amazingly little movement on his pitches considering how slow he throws. And his control is not good. At least Jamie Navarro Version II had some offspeed garbage he hurled at the plate. Ben Ford had a sinker. Matt Ford was a lefty who threw harder and had offspeed pitches and a cutter.
On a stats basis, Suppan also is remarkably bad. His ERA has gotten worse for 5 consecutive years, evidencing a certain decline in his abilities. Considering that even at his peak he was no better than average, we're talking about a very washed up, very bad pitcher. Despite what a lot of people say, he is in no way a "ground ball pitcher." He's never had a ration of G/F better than 0.96, and his average with the Brewers has been 0.88. Last year he had 90K, 67BB and, remarkably, 30HR allowed in 177.2 innings. His 4.96 ERA was held largely by luck and a pretty good outfield defense.
People forget how overrated Suppan was in St. Louis. For 3 seasons, his batting average on balls in play was saved by one of the best defenses in the league.
I've watching Suppan to start this year. I honestly don't know how he'll keep his ERA under 5.5, and I'm guessing it will be over 6.
That said, I agree that GMs are, not as much arrogant, as they are savvy. Cutting Suppan admits a mistake. Keeping Suppan on having him fail makes the media and fans focus more on Suppan. Melvin does not want to admit a mistake. Moreover, he does not want to become the focus of the blame. However, at some point a pitcher becomes so fucking bad that there's no way you can keep him around - at least not in the national league where full rosters actually matter.
Wow. I contemplated this entire post before even clicking over to the blog.
I prophesized on Friday that Suppan would be gone by the end of the year. This last start seals the deal. Here's what's going to happen:
-Brewers place Suppan on the DL with shoulder stiffness, arm fatigue, or some other b.s. ailment.
-Suppan sits for a few days, then throws some "rehab" starts in the minors.
-Suppan and his 86 MPH fastball make a few more starts for the Brewers in June/July. If the Brewers are anywhere near .500, they'll cut him. If they're already out of reasonable contention, he'll finish the year as a 5th/6th starter. In that scenario, they'll cut him in the offseason.
Suppan's output is clearly under replacement value, and has been pretty much since they signed him.
Suppan, you're fucking out. McClung, you're fucking in.
Would you rather have Suppan or "mentally-challenged" Dontrelle Willis? It could be said that Willis' contract extension in Detroit for 3 yrs/$29 mil could be the worst contract in baseball history, considering I think he made 2 or 3 starts last year before heading to single-A, then this year is on the DL for stress.
Here's the thing though, I guess I'd rather have Willis because he's not getting pitched every 5 games, screwing over his team. He's out of the way and his suckedness made room for Porcello to show what he's got. Personally, I almost would rather Bonderman stay gone too, he's looked like poo when he's been healthy over the last 2 seasons.
Does anyone want Milton Bradley in our fantasy league? I'm looking to deal him for a mid-to-high level starter.
I think Slash is exactly right and came here to post damn near verbatim what he posted above.
I honestly don't think anything in Condy's analysis is a reach or exagerration. There are literally many amateur City League and Land O Lakes pitchers throughout the state of Wisconsin with equal or better stuff than Jeff Suppan. I can guarantee you that. His fastball literally tops out at 84 at this point, and his breaking stuff is getting to a point where it doesn't even fucking break and is just about the same speed. He needs to hit every corner to survive, and even then he is an inevitable walk or 2 away from a 5 run inning.
Condy is right: good GMs cut bait on this type of situation sooner than later. There is absolutely zero chance that Suppan improves and is able to "rediscover" his mediocre St. Louis days and keep us in a ballgame.
Actually, Suppan provides 0 chance of single-handedly winning us a ballgame. He provides a 65% chance of losing us the ballgame. Chase Wright, Nick Green, Tim Dillard, Seth McClung, and probably Lindsay Gulin are all capable of much more than Suppan. I will say a DL stint is evident and he is off the 40 man by late June.
After thinking about this more, I'm guessing the Brewers do Option (1) and put him on the DL. Suppan will sit on there all year if he has to to "work out his arm issues." In reality, he has no injury but will spend the time trying to build whatever he can to compete. Inevitably, he won't do that and will be released. That could be during the season or after.
The reason I believe he's headed to the DL rather than released, like I said before, is a way for Melvin & Co. to pin the focus on Suppan rather than admitting that it was a terrible signing. He can play it off as "Jeff [Suppan] couldn't stay healthy and that. We weren't expecting that, and that."
Have you all noticed that as we continue our analysis, Suppan continues to lose velocity on his fastball?
I said 88mph. Slash said 86. OHR said 84.
That may seem like an emotional reaction, but I assure you that since last night Suppan has indeed lost 4 more mphs off of his fastball. It's a natural decline, folks.
Guys, you're forgetting that Suppan is an inning eater, not a numbers guys.
There is no need for me to comment on Suppan... it's simply a waste of time that I don't have.
Bub or Bub's brother, could you send me the "Come See What's Brewin" song by chance? my e-mail is riebe.jose@students.uwlax.edu.
Baker is wearing F***ING batting gloves!
Baker is bringing in Arthur Rhodes to F***ING face 8 consecutive F***ING right handed hitters!
LED是未來科技的驅勢。
Corey Hart has 5 walks in 26 AB. Therefore, he has a .308/.419/.769 line. Let's monitor this throughout the year.
I can't imagine him keeping that OBP pace up and I think we all know the SLG has no chance of holding above .650.
If he figures it out and gets to the Braun/Fielder level, look out for the crew!
Somebody go tell the slants to post on an Indians or Mariners blog.
Thx.
PS: Suppan is now down to 83. Give him another week and he'll be throwin' same cheese as me.
Blunty, if Suppan = you, does that mean he'll be the best Curling sweeper in our group? :)
That would be correct. For all of Suppan's faults, I haven't seen him fall down...lol
**Imminent, not evident.
Great article today on BCB about Suppan's absolute inability to miss a bat.
The Nationals already sent Lastings Milledge to AAA for poor behavior. Despite losing his spot to Elijah Dukes, it appears as though he did beat out Dukes for the Ron Artest/Steven Jackson memorial "Only Jim Bowden would be retarded enough to put us on the same team" Grand Prize. "Only Jim Bowden would be retarded enough to put us on the same team" First Runner-Up Elijah Dukes celebrated by sending a picture message of a loaded glock to oldhossradbourn. Tough luck, OHR.
Also, down on the farm, Mat Gamel is hitting .556/.625/1.056 with 2 HR, 3 2B, and, predictably, 3 errors through five games. I think I speak for all of BCS when I wish JJ Hardy the very best of luck playing third-stop in 2010 while Alcides Escobar mans second base and Gamel, Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, and Corey Hart patrol the two corner outfield spots.
The Bub, until you win something, go fuck yourself. I don't need Dukes - I can wallow in my Marquette basketball when I need my "swarming" and thug fix.
Elijah Dukes for Utley?
. . . You sure you don't need pitching? I've seen healthier ICU's.
Speaking of hot down in triple-a, Derrick Turnbow is sizzling hot for triple-a Oklahoma City (Rangers), having allowed 8 baserunners in 0.2 innings.
I need pitching like a West Allis Mexican needs a GPS
I need A-Rod to get healthy and Milton Bradley to figure out whether or not he actually wants to hit this year...not like Wrigley is much less of a hitter's park than Ballpark @ Arlington.
Chuck Villanueva is such a screw up...what a yutz.
Bub = the Cubs of this league. He'll never win. The closest he'll ever come to the green jacket was when he tainted it by trying it on the weekend of Jammers' nuptials.
Strong start, yes. But we all know his history of finishing things.
I have a problem with the Jackie Robinson obsession in baseball. I think people mistake who Jackie Robinson was with what he stands for. Jackie Robinson was a good player and deserves a great amount of respect for what he accomplished. But MLB has basically designated Robinson as the icon to which all praise must be addressed. It's annoying and cheap.
People forget that there were black players playing non-segregated professional baseball over a half century prior to Robinson. They also forget that Larry Doby entered the league mere months after Robinson. Doby had a great career, too. And they largely ignore Branch Rickey and the Dodger organization that took the risk of signing him.
How many times do you hear interviews from players saying, "I wouldn't be here if it weren't for Jackie Robinso?" That's simply not true. While the breaking of the color barrier was remarkable, would it never have happened without Robinson? Would Larry Doby not be called up to the Indians? Would Branch Rickey have never signed another non-white player? In 2009 would we really, fuck, you've got to be kidding me.
I understand it's easiest for MLB to sell the whole story as "Robinson the Glorious Lone Hero," but that's annoying and in understates the significance of the other 50,000 factors involved in breaking the color barrier.
MU fans, have you all seen this?:
2009 MU #1 Recruiting ClassPretty exciting, but to temper the enthusiasm, I should mention that the other 2 or 3 scouting sites have MU closer to #15. There's obviously a lot of opinion and discretion involved in the ranking, but it's good to know that some analysts are impressed by MU's class.
健身中心是運動減肥的好地方。
Anonymous is a very welcome contributor to our blog, if I may say so myself.
It's nice to see R.J. Swindle called up to the majors. As we have seen thus far, the value of every Brewers reliever is inversely proportional to the reliever's velocity. So, the Brewers bullpen ranks now go:
1) Swindle
2) DiFelice
3) Stetter
4) Villanueva
5) Coffey
6) McHung
7) Julio
Obviously this formula will be detroyed if Suppan ends up in the pen.
Looks like Zoolander is coming back for another year.
Is it just me and my boy Anon on here these days? What the hell?
I'm too busy having a shit fit that my hitters in fantasy have decided to crap themselves to start the season. Not to mention last night was the start of a wonderful couple months of playoff hockey.
Anonymous is a chooch and needs a swift kick in the cyber balls.
I checked hoopscoop and saw MU @ the #2 ranking (still amazing) but I can't believe this class will go down in the top 10 nationally, though I could be wrong.
We have some real athletes (read "swarmers") in this class, then there's tall whitey Roseboro...what a waste of a scholarship...
Hey there Anon, do any cool math lately? I'm just kidding, I actually love Japanese culture. I once drafted Ichiro in fantasy.
YOUR team is off to a slow start? Have you seen my squad of hapless weiners? Fire sale in T minus 2 weeks.
I meant to say hapless, injured, won't-play-in-cool-weather pussies.
Knights of Columbus, Marquette is going to swarm like no other next year.
http://www.kake.com/college/headlines/43074727.html
New nickname for the Bradley Center:
a.) The hive
2.) The crib
r.) Freaknik
11.) Fort Swarmter
5.) The dunk tank
Thanks for the pix message, James. I nearly drove off the rode when I saw it.
Man, I'm hammered. I just typed "rode."
大中當舖借錢，汽車借款的好地方！
No thanks, I have plenty of tea.
Anyway, with the April HIAWDA rapidly approaching, is there anyone that is going to give Jeff "Mercy Rule" Suppan a run for his money?
Early sleepers are Ryan Braun, JJ Hardy, Carlos Villanueva, and Mitch Stetter. Some solid competition for Soup include Jason "can't slug my weight" Kendall and Jorge "I used to throw hard at one point in the majors but am now nothing but AAA fodder" Julio.
Villanueva has been a real disappointment...Draft mistake #3092
There's no competition for #1. It's Suppan's award. His latest outing, where he was "brilliant" with his 3.00 ERA in 6 innings, which would have been a 9 ERA with Miller Park's fence distances, pissed me off as much as either of his first two starts. Well, maybe not as much, but it pissed me off a lot.
No folks, Suppan didn't suddenly "refind himself" or "become good" because he decided to "throw through the catcher, not to the catcher." He's every bit as likely to surrender 6 runs in 3 innings next time out as he was before the last start. One average start does not redeem you, Jeff.
The race is for #2, which is a pretty high honor considering who #1 is. Julio has been Turnbow Version 2.0. But Kendall has been Jason Kendall. Not only has he been literally the worst hitter in the NL to date, but (1) he's taking 86% of the pitches at catcher, reducing Mike Rivera's role to insignificance, (2) he's getting paid a lot, (3) his defense, his one saving grace last year, has been terrible and (4) his ERA is over 6. Remember that, according to announcers, catchers are 100% responsible for team ERA when things are going well, so, consequently, they are responsible here on BCB for bad pitching.
"Hey Wes, I'm a lifelong Brewers fan, and I just wanted to thank you for the home run you hit against the Mets in the last game of the season last year"
He didn't acknowledge me, but there's no way he didn't hear me. I couldn't have been more than five feet away.
That has to be the last pitch Julio throws as a Brewer. THoff is coming back this weekend and someone has to go. Assuming Swindle pretty much is going to fuck the Phillies up here, I would doubt he's going back to triple-a.
Manny Fucking Parra. Jorge fucking Julio. Jesus Christ we've become the 2002 Brewers.
While I'm on Parra, he's really pissing me off. Normally I would tell myself that he's young and young pitchers take a while to adapt and trust their stuff; the important thing is he has great stuff and a high ceiling.
Well, Parra isn't that young. Quite frankly, his fastball doesn't move at all so he has to locate it to be effective. Well he's done nothing but throw head high or down the cock fastballs all year. When are you going to his a fucking spot and keep the ball down? Seriously, is your control that bad? Are you a mential vagina? Do you need Telly Hughes to go Hood on you?
Parra looks like a lost little girl on the bump. I'm getting really fucking sick of him. Wake up dude and flash some of that potential. You are embarassing lefties statewide.
Lefties are the worst.
Related: Ditch your residence, OHR. Move back to the land of Oz, I need a roomate. And somebody to make my bitch.
I'm good at grammar, and punctuation
Post a Comment