After what was nearly an absurdly successful but nevertheless a very entertaining 2008 baseball gambling adventure, the anticipation is high for the discussion to begin this year. Abandoning my and BC Bub's plan to do an in-depth review of each team because we don't have the time or energy, we will focus on a few teams and bets that we believe are the best.
I struggled with the organization and timing of the gabling discussion because, as you'll soon see, there is a related issue to this post that I'd like to discuss separately. The timing here corresponds well with the start of the spring training schedule tomorrow.
I like to start at the top and work down. Rather than looking at which teams stand the best chance to win their divisions or beat their over/unders, I like to find the best odds for the World Series champion. So, let's take a look (warning, the result will surprise you).
Which team currently is the most underrated and offers the best return/chance of making the postseason with a 1/8 chance of winning the World Series? In my opinion, it is the Milwaukee Brewers. Sportsbook.com currently has the Brewers at 50:1 to win it all. No, that's not as good as the Rays last year, but we're never going to see something like that again. The Brewers are the best bet out there. Let's take a look at why and some of the other options if you don't like the Brewers.
This is a two-step process. First, we need to step outside of our typical reasoning and acquaint ourselves with what the national perception is of each team. Then, we have to determine how good each team is, playing close attention to breakout potential and the strength of inter-divisional and league competition. As always, while I believe Vegas lines are generally very good, I think they're greatly skewed when it comes to baseball futures. The number one reason is still the misunderstanding of the postseason. The postseason is a complete crapshoot. Every team that makes the postseason has a 1/8 shot of winning the World Series. So, our analysis focuses solely on how likely a team is to make the postseason and what odds is it getting.
So, why the Brewers? The first step: the country cannot get over the loss of Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia. Plain and simple. Well, that and the national obsession with the Cubs, Mets and Phillies. The thought is that the Brewers barely made the playoffs with those two guys, so how can they make it without them? They're big losses, no doubt, but can the Brewers overcome them? The answer is yes.
The second step: the Brewers are still a decent team which has substantial breakout potential. The return of Yovani Gallardo, who I called the most valuable player on the team before last year's opener, is huge. His potential is enormous and his likelihood of succeeding this year is very high. The Brewers signed Bradon Looper. That helps. The Brewers have a lot of young players. Young players progress more than they regress, and the star potential is still there for at least 5 young hitters and two starting pitchers - Parra and Gallardo.
But the Brewers also have the opportunity for extreme additions by subtraction at at least two, possibly three positions. At third base, the potential is there for the Brewers if Mat Gamel (top-100 overall prospect) breaks out and can play defense. But, even if he doesn't and the Brewers play anyone other than Bill Hall, there's a substantial improvement. At pitcher, if Jeff Suppan is released, the Brewers improve dramatically by starting, well, anyone else. And perhaps even at catcher, where Mike Rivera or another top-100 prospect, Angel Salome, could surprise. We just don't know what to expect from those guys. But, when you're taking a chance on an underdog, you have to bet on a team that has the potential to be very good, not one that you know will be .500. The wildcard here: Ken Macha. Does he recognize sunk costs? There's a good chance he does. Let's not forget that there was a drastic change in managers.
One last item of concern. The Brewers' bullpen. Is it good? I don't know. Bullpens are wildly underpredictable for every team every season. The reason the Rays went to the World Series is because they went from the worst bullpen in the league to the best in one season. Can the Brewers bullpen jump dramatically? The whole thing is revamped, and there are a ton of high ceiling pitchers in there. If the Brewers bullpen excells, I would bet on them making the postseason. The potential is there.
Now, let's be realistic. Do I think the Brewers will win the World Series? No. But I do think they're the second best team in their division and probably the 5th or 6th best team in the NL. I think their ceiling is almost as high as any other team in the NL. So, the reason I'm taking them is because they've got 50:1 odds.
Baseball Prospectus predicts that the Brewers have a 33.3% chance of making the playoffs. So, with those odds, they have a 1/24 chance of winning the World Series. 50:1 is clearly a bargain.
There are a couple other bets out there that I can throw on to the table for discussion, but none that I like as much as the Brewers (all lines are according to Sportsbook.com):
1) Arizona Diamondbacks at 20:1. The favorite in the NL West. A team that may have 3 of the top 10 pitchers in the NL and a young lineup which could explode.
2) Kansas City Royals at 100:1. Young team in a division with absolutely no runaway winner. Basically the same idea as the 1987 and 1991 Twins. It doesn't matter that there are 5 better teams in the AL East. Those aren't in the Central.
3) Texas Rangers at 60:1. My initial instinct was the A's, but their line has moved all the way to 25:1. The Angels are awfully overrated, and the Rangers have probably the best farm system in baseball. While I think they're a year or more away, you never know with prospects. And like the AL Central, the AL West is weak.
4) Toronto Blue Jays at 75:1. This is a good team stuck in a bad place. But 75:1 seems awfully high.
Sorry for the long post, but I've been very quiet lately.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
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5 comments:
Am I going nuts? Don't quote me as being optimistic, please. This is analysis, that's all. Just because I'm cynical doesn't mean I can't see that the Brewers are underrated.
Of course, I wouldn't actually bet on Brewers because it's the sports gambling version of going all-in. That is betting on the team that you would want to win it all anyway regardless of any bets. If the Brewers did win, I would care at all about a 5000% return on my investment because I'd only care about the World Series. You can always hedge the bet during the playoffs, but I'm more inclined to find a mystery team to bet on.
Even though the odds aren't nearly as sexy, I think the Diamondbacks are the best other bet out there.
Condy, when the BP projections first came out, the Brewers were the first mispricing I saw as well. Not to win the WS, however, but to win the NL. At the time, they were 60:1 to win the World Series and 40:1 to win the NL. 40:1! I'm at work right now and don't want to go to a gambling site to determine the current line, but that strikes me as a sound bet for a team that is projected for a four-way wild-card tie. A 33% chance to make the playoffs should yield 11:1 odds to win the NL.
Another team I kind of like is Atlanta. They've overhauled the rotation and may actually have some health at the back end of the bullpen. Their offense showcases some of the most underrated infielders in the league (Kelly Johnson and Larry Jones), and one of the shittiest outfields I've ever seen. However, like the rangers, they've got some serious talent in the minors, especially in the outfield, that could have a positive impact through midseason callups - Jordan Shafer for sure, and potentially Jason Hayward for a stretch run. The team also has the potential to add Tommy Hanson to the bullpen should injuries arise. They're currently listed with a 34% chance to make the playoffs and 30:1 odds to win the world series in sportsbooks.
Sometime later in the week we'll talk about division bets (Cubs, I'm looking at you) and over/unders for season win totals.
I looked at the same thing for the Brewers, and they were 17:1 to win the NL. Obviously you'd take the World Series bet there. But that also tells me that we may see the line fall towards 34:1 as the spring moves on. That's a bet that probably needs to be made sooner.
The Braves are a pretty good team, and it will be perhaps the best team in the NL if the young outfielders can replace what is otherwise one of the least impressive outfields in baseball. If I could buy for 2011, I'd take the Braves. Unfortunately, those outfielders most likely will not impact the team in 2009. Heyward is too far away and Schafer isn't ready either, nor does he have Heyward's ceiling. Hanson should be the No. 1 or 2 starter all year. Unfortunately, I think he will have to waste some time in Triple-A, which could cost the Braves the game or two necessary to beat out the Phillies and Mets in what should be a great race.
What really hurts the Braves is having so many injury-prone players that need to produce - Chipper Jones and the entire bullpen, for instance.
I like the Braves, but not any more than the Brewers, and they're getting much less sexy odds. Still, it's not a bad bet if you refuse to bet on the Brewers or are looking to diversify.
I strongly believe that the best bet in sports is to be on one of the underdog teams at the World Baseball Classic. They play what 8 total games per team? Anything can happen in 8 games. In any single game, the Lakeland Tigers can beat the Detroit Tigers or the Red Sox lose to Boston College. All the players on the good teams are nowhere near midseason form and nowhere near trying very hard. The top pitchers on the good teams simply won't stress themselves. And there is very little scouting info or effort put into scouting players on the worse teams.
Yet, teams like the Dominican Rep. and USA are going off close to 1:1. Australia, Cuba, Japan, China are all good bets. Teams like South Africa, well, they have no chance, but their odds are probably ridiculously high.
WBC? What a waste.
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