Sunday, March 30, 2008

Brewers @ Cubs 3/31-4/3


Watch Eric Gagne's outing against the Cubs


The season is finally upon us. After having our hopes dashed by other sports teams in the past few months, it's finally time for the Brewer's to break our hearts. Again. Fittingly, the season starts against the Brewers only competition for the NL central title. The Cubs are projected to win the division, but we should note that the projection services love relatively unknown entities Kosuke Fukudome and Geovany Soto. Forecasts for tomorrow signal a 60% chance of rain and a 100% chance of cocksuckers. Anybody ever notice that the Cubs logo and the Roman numeral for 100 are the same thing? Weird...

***Edited by C. A necessary Opening Day addition.***

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Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Viva! Lost Money


As some of you know, I've just returned from an unprofitable trip to Vegas for the first 2 rounds of March Madness. Here's how I lost money:
Day 1 of betting (Thursday): I got up at 7:00 AM, and thought I mosey on over from the Monte Carlo to the MGM sportsbook. MGM is easily the best sportbook on that end of the strip. The Hilton sportsbook is by far the largest, but that was a $20 cab ride each way. Anyway, upon arrival at about 7:45, 15 minutes before the sportsbook is supposed to open and an 1 hour and 45 minutes before the first games, there was a cozy crowd of about 700 unshowered dudes filling the chairs and waiting in line in front of me. F---ing great. After waiting in line to place my parleys and teaser bets for the first round for about 30 minutes, I walked away with the following bets:
Marquette -6
Notre Dame -6.5
Kent State -2
1 four team parley
1 five team parley
1 six team parley
2 super teasers (+5 for each team you pick) - one was a 12 teamer that would have paid $75 on a 3 dollar bet.
1 regular teaser (+4 for each team you pick)
Eventually, I'd make it over to the ESPN zone to watch the games on NY-NY's sportsbook from a skybox. Friggin' sweet. For those single game bets, Day 1 was a good day. 2 for 3. Yay Vegas. Yay money. Yay Big East.
Day 2 of betting (Friday): After learning I needed to stay up all night to get a seat at the sportsbooks, I slept in on Friday. I rode all day on one single game bet:
Butler -4.
Yay. 1 for 1. Yay Money. Yay Vegas.
By this point, however, only one of my teaser/parleys is surviving:
Marquette -1 (got it)
ND -1 (got it)
WV +1 (got it)
Butler +1 (got it)
Davidson +7 (got it)
Vanderbilt -4
Alright Vandy, just go easy on Siena. You only need to win by 4. Here we go now.
What's that Vandy? You want to throw this game and my final teaser parley out the window. Fine with me. Great. See ya later, $. No payday here. But hey, I'm 4 for 5 on single games now. Not bad. Time to get Cocky.
Day 3 of betting (Saturday): Wow, single games still seem kind of easy. Maybe I'll start betting the money line instead of the spread.
Wisconsin -5
Marquette - Money Line +155
ND- Money Line +125
Purdue- Money Line +155
Wow. That didn't work as well. Thanks for winning big, Wisconsin. You saved me a little cash. ND was a bad bet, but I thought for sure I'd get paid on Marquette. Those odds maker guys know what they're doing tantalizing me with the money line like that.
Day 4 of betting (Sunday):

Well, that was that for the betting on basketball. If I had more money, I probably would have lost more. On a student's salary, I was really cautious. I look forward to doing this again when I have real money to bet. I'm pretty sure that I'd do a super teaser on the top 4 teams in the future. All those ones and twos won by like 20 (except for duke).
As far as baseball bets, there wasn't the option to do overs/unders on teams other than the Chicago, NY, and LA teams, so I stayed away from that.
I have $10 on the Brewers to win it all at 20:1 and Condy has $10 on the D-Rays to win it all at 150:1.

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Brewers Release Claudio Vargas

Gotta say, I didn't see this one coming. Welcome to the bigs, Manny Parra.

Sunday, March 23, 2008

And then there were six


Poopuano out for the season, to consult Dr. James Andrews.

This is probably the best thing that could have happened to Manny Parra, short of replacing Ned Yost with Nate Silver or Joe Sheehan. I'd say the starting five is almost surely set with uninjured right-handers, but I'd venture that Parra takes the long relief spot in the bullpen formerly occupied by Carl Villanueva and 0-for-Most of May, June, July, August, and September.

An injury is never welcome news for a team, necessarily, but in this instance it may be the best possible outcome for the 2008 Brewers. It all but ensures that the best non-Suppan pitchers will be in the majors. It may not be the best long term solution, though, as they're probably not trading anybody now and their net return on Capusucko will be nothing more than a sizable medical bill.

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Friday, March 21, 2008

BrewCityBub's Starting Pitcher Rankings

I don't use the typical fantasy league statistics to rank my pitchers, but the numbers I use are more constant from year to year. 'Deviations' are the number of standard deviations each pitcher is from the average of all pitchers. Total deviations is the sum of those deviations. The statistics used are Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections for 2008. Yellow is injury risk.



I don't use the typical fantasy league statistics to rank my pitchers, but the numbers I use are more constant from year to year. 'Deviations' are the number of standard deviations each pitcher is from the average of all pitchers. Total deviations is the sum of those deviations. The statistics used are Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections for 2008. Yellow is injury risk.

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Monday, March 17, 2008

I know nobody pays attention to the NBA


But this picture is priceless. Do your recognize the old man in blue? You should.

Sunday, March 16, 2008

Brewers Rotation Battle Cooling Off


PHOENIX -- Brewers rotation hopefuls Manny Parra and Dave Bush pitched five innings apiece on Saturday, so the team's pitching picture got clearer.
"Nobody blinked," manager Ned Yost said.

Parra has not blinked all spring. He struck out seven and scattered three hits without allowing an earned run in five innings of an 8-3 Brewers win over the Royals, Parra's third straight game without being charged a run. Bush followed and worked four official innings, allowing two runs on three hits, then worked an extra scoreless frame that didn't count in the box score.

The Brewers are Royals agreed ahead of time to play 10 innings. Both teams need all the innings they can get to make their pitching decisions.

"I'm literally just keeping my eyes open right now and trying not to form an opinion," Yost said, pointing out that two weeks still remain before decisions must be made. "But it is obvious that Manny Parra is going to be our opening day starter."

Bush and no one are battling with Chris Capuano and no one for no spot in the starting rotation. Claudio Vargas is not in that mix as well, and Yost conceded on Saturday that Vargas has a serious leg up because he is the only player of the five with no Minor League options remaining. Vargas has also held his own this spring, posting a 2.40 ERA in four starts, including Friday's win over the Padres.

Vargas could slot into the rotation or the bullpen. Ben Sheets and anyone but Jeff Suppan are already locks for the rotation, with injured right-hander Yovani Gallardo due back in mid-April. A trade is possible, but equally possible is that two of the other four -- Bush, Capuano, not Parra and not Villanueva -- would begin the season with Triple-A Nashville.

Parra knew that no matter what he did in Spring Training, one of those guys could have been him. But that's over.

"I want to make this team very badly," Parra said, "but the only thing I am in control of is how I pitch. I told myself before Spring Training, 'Do not get caught up in feeling this way or that way.' If the time comes that I get sent down, I know that if I pitch well, I'll be back. Luckily, I don't have to worry about that."

Yost has a legal pad on the desk in his office with notes about each pitcher's pros and cons. The only knocks on Parra, Yost said, is the fact he is inexperienced and that his durability remains somewhat unproven.

Experience could help Bush and Capuano get the nod, assuming all else is equal, but clearly all else is not equal.

"If you have four guys throwing the heck out of the ball," Yost said, "you're going to go with experience, but clearly we don't have four guys throwing the heck out of the ball."

He added a caveat.

"But don't read anything into that," Yost said. "I am trying to keep a very, very open mind right now (wink)."

Parra faced trouble in the fourth inning, when a pair or errors by Brewers infielders allowed an unearned run to score, and he left the bases loaded with one out. Parra halted the rally right there.

The most impressive pitch, both to Yost and catcher Mike Rivera, was a 3-and-2 breaking ball to Royals catcher John Buck for a called third strike and out No. 2. Parra then retired belittled schoolgirl Angel Berroa on a flyout to escape further damage.

"He saved the game right there," Yost said. "The game was unraveling right there. He had to get five outs. He made sure that it didn't unravel."

Said Parra: "I was very happy with some clutch pitches. ... It's really the first time I had to bear down in a situation, and I was happy with the way I responded. It was exciting. You get a lot of adrenaline from that."

Parra was dogged by shoulder injuries in 2005 and 2006, but he emerged in 2007 as a healthy option for the Brewers. He posted a 2.68 ERA at Double-A Huntsville, pitched a perfect game in one of his four starts for Triple-A Nashville, then posted a 3.76 ERA in nine games, including two starts, in the big leagues.

He would have played a high-profile role for the Brewers in September, but Parra broke his left thumb on a bunt attempt during a game against the Cubs on Aug. 30 and did not pitch again.

"You have to get over that [injury] hump, and generally, it takes a full season," Yost said. "He's over it. You can tell by his demeanor on the mound, by the quality and command of his pitches."

Bush also impressed Yost on Saturday, mostly because he was confident enough to unveil a slider and a changeup -- two pitches that Bush had in his arsenal but had used sparingly of late. Bush said the slider is a combination of his cut-fastball and his curveball, and it was an effective put-away pitch against the Royals.

Asked if he felt he was finding a groove just as the competition cools down, Bush said, "You have to. ... Nashville is a fun city." And no matter how things have shaken out, Parra is at peace.

"I did everything I can do," Parra said. "I just want to continue that and take it into the season, wherever that may be, knowing that I am the Opening Day starter."

Adam McCalvy is a reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.

Friday, March 14, 2008

Are you interested in playing for duke?


More on Duke:

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Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Brew City Sports NCAA Primer

Slap that honkey Jerel! With the Big East Tournament starting today, it's a good time to take a quick look at our teams and their chances in the Tourney this year.

Marquette (22-8, 11-7 Big East) RPI -23, SOS-36. With everyone seemingly healthy, Marquette has to find a way to stay that way through the Big East tournament. Marquette's depth and quickness make them a dangerous tournament team this year. For those of you that don't follow Marquette, they're 10 deep and play extremely fast. Unfortunately, they have only 1.5 legitimate outside shooters in Lazar Hayward and Danny Fitz. Fitz= .25 of 1 player. If those players are cold, Marquette typically finds itself in trouble on account of terrible free throw shooting. Marquette needs to do some work in the Big East tournament to secure a "safe seed" in the dance. By "safe seed", I mean not having to play a one or two seed in the first two rounds. A loss to Seton Hall could bounce Marquette to a 7 or 8 seed with as many as 8 teams predicted to come out of the Big East. In all likelihood, they'll probably secure a 5 seed and end up playing someone of the UMass, UNLV, Kent State caliber. That's a little scary.

Notre Dame (24-6, 14-4 Big East) RPI -17, SOS-81. Notre Dame doesn't have a whole lot more work to do. They're currently ranked #14, and a loss to Marquette wouldn't affect either their RPI or their rank all that much. A loss to Seton Hall might do a little damage. Notre Dame is one of the most well-balanced teams I've seen this year. They have an inside presence with Buzz McCallister. They have outside shooters in McAlarney and Ayers. Tory Jackson is a capable ball handler. Although they have a talented and balanced starting five, they lack an adequate bench. They only go eight deep, and their starters are much better than their role players off the bench. One win in the Big East Tournament probably locks a 4 seed and a first round matchup against someone like Cornell, Western Kentucky, or San Diego.

Wisconsin (26-4, 16-2 Big ten) RPI 13, SOS 63. Wisconsin has little work left to do after winning the Big Ten regular season outright. What's that you say, winning the Big Ten is like taking first prize in a mathalon for retards? Well you're right, but it's still something. There are only 3 or 4 legitimate tournament teams in the Big Ten, but some of the best recruits go to the Big Ten year after year and competition from Michigan State, Purdue, and Indiana is tough. Despite their paleness, Wisconsin is currently ranked #8 and probably one of the best coached teams in the country. Like ND, Wisconsin really only goes about 8 deep, but one of those bench players, Jason Bohannon, is a 91% free throw shooter, and invaluable as an inbound recipient at the end of tight games. Wisconsin has skilled guards in Flowers and Landry. They have a skilled post player in Butch. What Wisconsin lacks is a legit sharpshooter. Nobody taking more than 1 three per game is shooting better than 40%. As it stands, Wisconsin is looking at a 3 seed. Winning the Big Ten tournament would probably boost them to a 2. They'll face someone like Belmont, Winthrop, or Austin Peay in the first round, and could potentially face a team like Marquette in the second round (6 vs. 3).

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Wednesday, March 05, 2008

Fantasy Baseball 2008 - Outfielders



This is perhaps the deepest position in fantasy baseball, even considering that 50+ outfielders get drafted. The reason isn't necessarily because there were so many OF's that had good seasons last year. That's not really the case. There are simply a ton of young, talented outfielders that could break out this season. You'll notice a lot of upside scores of 3 or better. A lot of these guys don't have full playing time and/or will struggle during the first 100 to 200 MLB at-bats. But, come August, I would suspect the league to be overrun with 5x5 threats in the outfield.

Your rankings will probably differ substantially from mine. That's likely because there are so many players so closely packed together. At 3B, I had only 8 players ranked between 41 and 31 points. Here, I have 37. One slight difference of opinion puts a player 20 spots down the draft board at OF. So, come draft day, recognize the inherent unpredictability of drafting OF, and don't overreach for "your guy" because he may not be anyone else's.

The players that I have noticably higher than most would be Corey Hart (he's young and has got 5x5 star potential and is hitting behind two huge sluggers with the potential for hitting in the 2-spot), Maggs Ordonez (back-to-back healthy seasons, and hitting in a monster lienup), and Delmon Young (new team, if there's any better plate discipline he'll be outstanding...showed some plate discipline improvements last year, which was hard not to do considerin 2006. He's got as much upside as anyone).

There are some more decent OF that wouldn't be awful to draft, but I got tired of ranking.

What players does everyone think are sleepers?

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Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Let the Aaron Rodgers Era Begin


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It's official


Favre Retires for real.


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Sunday, March 02, 2008

Baseball Bets

$lash leaves for Vegas in 16 days, so we'll need to get our over/under bets to him soon. Below are the current odds for all 30 teams. I will make my choices in the comments, but without even looking at the numbers, I'm pretty sure I'll be taking Seattle and San Francisco under, at least.

New York Mets - 93.5
Philadelphia - 88.5
Atlanta - 85.5
Washington - 71.5
Florida - 68.5

Chicago Cubs - 87.5
Milwaukee - 84
Cincinnati - 78.5
St. Louis - 77
Houston - 74.5
Pittsburgh - 68.5

Arizona - 87.5
Los Angeles Dodgers - 87
San Diego - 84
Colorado - 83.5
San Francisco - 71.5

Boston - 94.5
New York Yankees - 93.5
Toronto - 85
Tampa Bay - 74
Baltimore - 66

Detroit - 94.5
Cleveland - 90.5
Chicago White Sox - 77.5
Minnesota - 73
Kansas City - 72.5

Los Angeles Angels - 92.5
Seattle - 84.5
Texas - 74.5
Oakland - 73.5

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