Look at this fucken guy
I'm still trying to alleviate the sting from yesterday's game, and I gotta be honest, JJ Hardy is helping the cause. Not helping the cause? Bill Hall hitting 2 run home runs in 8 run games. Did anybody see that error at third today? Disgraceful. Also, if anybody is interested, use the comments to discuss the recent LaPorta-for-Sabathia rumors.
Labels: Esoteric Hyperbole, JJ Hottie, Outlandish Similitude
posted by Brew City Bub @ 4:09 PM
25 comments
25 Comments:
Love the picture. I was actually about to post Hardy's head on Kapler's body when I noticed your picture. Everyone can thank the Bub for avoiding another mess like that.
The LaPorta (+others) for Sabathia (+ maybe others) seems serious. I really don't like the idea. That's 6+ years of someone who figures to be an above average hitter for 2 months of a very good pitcher, and excellent hitting pitcher for what that's worth. While Sabathia would help for the playoff run, there is still probably less than a 50% chance that they'd make the playoffs. People forget that even without Sabathia, there is a chance the Brewers make the playoffs.
It's hard to be patient, but the most valuable assets in MLB are young, talented prospects. The Brewers would get probably two draft picks between 25-32 next year, under the good assumption that the Red Sox, Cubs or Yankees will sign Sabathia after this season. Those are nice, but I'd rather have LaPorta.
What really worries me is the talk of other prospects being included in the deal. If the Brewers are going to add more 6+ years of cheap talent, they better get some really good bullpen help with the deal.
The latest rumor has LaPorta, Taylor Green and Lorenzo Cain to the Indians for C.C. Sabathia. Let's take a closer look at this.
LaPorta is obviously the jewel of the deal. Currently, he has a .291/.405/.582 line with 20 HR and a 45/62 BB:K in 299 AB in Huntsville. Those are fantastic numbers, and he's only 23 years old. His defense in right field is never going to be spectacular, but it's right field. His defense at first base in as little as two years from now would be fine. The Brewers have no chance of signing Prince Fielder past his arbi years. LaPorta is as close to a sure-thing hitter as you're ever going to see in the minors. He's hit everywhere. He hits righties. He hits lefties. He hits late in the count and still doesn't strike out all that much. He has power and the size to match it. All in all, the Brewers lose 6+ years of this guy, where he'd be playing at a major discounted price. And, it's worth mentioning, but the Brewers lose a key bat in September this season.
Given my above desciption, it probably goes without saying that I think it's nuts for the Brewers to be adding additional prospects into the deal. But, what are the Brewers really getting back?
Sabathia is a great pitcher, no doubt. What's a reasonable expectation of him in the NL? I'd say about a 2.90 ERA over the season's final two months. He would make approximately 11 starts over that time, replacing Dave Bush or someone worse in the rotation. That's the difference of about 1.5-2 runs per start and an inning or two more per start. I'd say he's worth about 20 runs over that time, maybe 22-25 considering his hitting and the collateral concept of "saving the bullpen." (I will note that saving the bullpen loses a lot of its value with 20-man pitching staffs in September, and I'll ignore the impact LaPorta could have in Septemer). That's pretty good. That's about 2 more wins.
Now, we obviously cannot compare wins straight up. LaPorta could be worth well over 40 wins over the next 6+ seasons. But, the real question is whether those two wins worth are so much this season (i.e. making the playoffs) that it justifies losing LaPorta. Historically, I would say the answer to that question has typically been no for teams in contention. But, there is a chance here that it's worth it. Should the Brewers make the playoffs by 1 or 2 games, it most certainly was worth it. The playoffs are a huge revenue boost and give a team a 1/8 chance of winning the world series. That's obviously the entire purpose of the game, to give yourself those odds.
But, what if the Brewers miss the playoffs? Or, what if they make the playoffs by 5 games? It most certainly was a waste then. Let's look at the standings, courtesy of BP. The Cubs are 4.5 games up on the Brewers and a much better team at this point. According to the adjusted standings, the Cubs should be 6.5 games up. Sabathia or not, they will not be caught. This puts the Brewers in competition with the rest of the National League for one playoff spot. The Phillies, Braves, Candinals and Mets represent the biggest threats. Will two of the eastern teams have better records than the Brewers? Currently, the adjusted standings have all three as better teams than the Brewers, who should be a mere one game over .500. What the Brewers have to their advantage is a 5 game lead on the Mets and Braves. But, the Brewers are banking on either the Phils collapsing or neither of those teams to get hot down the stretch. 50/50 that's a bad bet. There's also the Cardinals and, to a lesser extent, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. The Cardinals are esentially even with the Brewers at this point. They may get Chris Carpenter back in a month, which would be a big boost. They aren't better than the Brewers, and Sabathia makes the Brewers a better shot, but it's close enough that anything can happen over 60 games.
It's worth noting that the Brewers have a lot of games left against the Cubs and Cardinals. That's a good and bad thing. With Sabathia, they could be more competitive in head-to-head games, thus increasing Sabathia's value. But, they still aren't catching the cubs, and that's a lot of games against teams that usually beat the Brewers.
In summary, this is not a clear situation where adding that one player increases a team's chances at the postseason by something more than 20%.
And then, Taylor Green and (rumor) Lorenzo Cain are included in the deal. Cain has potential, but is not a huge loss for the Brewers at this point.
Green on the other hand is a player I really like. He's not a top-100 prospect, but he's a good hitter and an actually third base prospect. At 5'10" and skinnyish, he's not a huge power threat. But, he's got 10 homers this year and hit 14 last year. For a 21-year old playing in High-A this season, that's very good. He was the organization hitter of the year last season for a reason. His biggest talent is the K:BB. He's got 40 BB and 39 K this season. That stat is very telling of future success. Though he probably won't be a star due to the medium power, he's got a good shot of having a long MLB career with .360+ OBPs. This is a little more than a throw-in. For that matter, Cain, who is very toolsy, 22-years old and not totally lost at the plate, is also more than a throw-in.
The Brewers get 2 draft picks for Sabathia at the end of the year. How much are those worth? Sabathia will be signed by the Angels, Yankees, Red Sox or Cubs. So, the Brewers will pick about 25th and 31st. In addition, they're going to pick about 18th for themselves and, considering compensation for Sheets, will pick about 26th and 32nd. That's 5 picks in the first 32 picks, if Sheets and Sabathia are indeed signed by top-tier teams.
If this year is any indication, those Sabathia picks lose value when the Brewers have so many other picks. For instance, Cutter Dykstra and Evan Frederickson were picked way ahead of slot, perhaps for money concerns. The picks are nice, but there is an exponential dropoff from top-10 pick to picks in the 20's.
I'm trying to liven up the blog. Can you tell? Oh, and I'm bored shitless.
Essentially, the question is one of window. What is the Brewers window of being competitive? This is where I disagree with people. I think it's 2009-2012. Yes, the Brewers lose Sheets after this season. But, they gain Gallardo next year. And the Cubs get another year older, although they'll sign a lot more players this off-season. The Brewers also gain Matt LaPorta and move Hart to center. That's a lineup that will crush the ball. With LaPorta, the Brewers can be very patient with Gamel, perhaps giving him the opportunity to stay at third base. Regardless of when Fielder leaves, Gamel and LaPorta can come in and fill the hole.
Now, what happens when Fielder leaves if LaPorta isn't around? Do the Brewers make a big free agent splash and sign Daryl Ward? Does Gamel play first? Then who plays third or the corner outfield? You get the point. I have no doubt in my mind that this team would have a fantastic lineup in 2009-2012 with LaPorta, one good enough to make up for pitching shortcomings. I'm not so sure of that without LaPorta, and I think the window of opportunity closes when Fielder leaves. To me, that's not worth acquiring Sabathia for this season.
I am unequivocally opposed to this deal. Let's address the pros and cons:
Pros:
-CC Sabathia is one of the elite pitchers in the game in the absolute prime of his career. He currently leads the AL in strikeouts, has historically shown excellent command, and is left handed
-Based on historical data, we can expect Sabathia to be 2-2.5 wins better than Dave Bush over the second half of the season. This may prove to be slightly more favorable given that he is switching to an easier league.
-Dave Bush would be sent to the bullpen, and Guillermo Mota would be sent to the janitor's closet.
-Having to face Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia 4 times in a five game series would be fucking impossible.
-In 40 AB's, he's hitting .300/.317/.475
-While LaPorta is as cant-miss as they come, prospects do sometimes miss, and we haven't seen what LaPorta can do to major league pitching for an extended period of time.
-My guess is that Mark Attanasio is the one pining for this deal. Perhaps Melvin will be fed up with a meddlesome owner. While I love Melvin and don't want to see him go anywhere, his departure would open a door for Jack Zduriencik to stay in Milwaukee as GM with Gord Ash as aGM and advisor. This is pretty much the only scenario in which JZ remains in Milwaukee beyond this October.
Cons:
-LaPorta is, along with Matt Wieters, one of the two best offensive prospects in baseball. He will be cost controlled for six years, including the three years as he approaches his prime during which he will receive ~$1MM. Cumulative.
-CC Sabathia's deal expires at the end of the season and he has publically stated that he desires Johan Santana-type money. He rejected a 5yr/$92 million dollar deal from the Indians before the start of the season. The Brewers have no hope to resign him.
-The current Brewers roster is doing a damn fine job of competing for the Wild Card right now. They currently trail the overachieving Cardinals by 1 game. Baseball prospectus lists them as the odds-on favorite to win the wild card at 34%, with a 47% chance of making the playoffs. Based on PECOTA projections, the brewers odds become better than 1 in 2.
-Prince Fielder is fat and unwilling to sign a long term deal. However, his trade value this offseason will be higher than at any other point during his Brewers career. Fielder could easily be moved to an AL team for ELITE starting pitching that would be price controlled for several years. LaPorta would be capable of stepping in to take Fielder's place on April 1, 2009. Even if LaPorta only turns out to be Casey Kotchman, the Brewers are better off in the long run.
-CC Sabathia is not the only available pitcher this July, and other pitchers (namely Erik Bedard who dislikes all the attention he has received in Seattle) have contracts extending beyond this season.
-JZ will, in all likelihood, not be around next June to use the two additional draft picks.
-My guess is that Mark Attanasio is the one pining for this deal (lets be honest, this doesn't exactly fit Melvin's agenda as he laid it out early on in his tenure). If so, it could be a Steinbrennerian "get that guy at all costs" type move, in which we are dramatically overpaying for ~15 starts.
Given the above, the move is clearly a losing one for the Brewers.
Christ, you posted three times while I was typing mine. I think The Deleted One is going to grouch about our long-windedness.
To address another of your points, The Mets' 3rd order winning percentage is .510, the Braves' is .522, the Cardinals' .502, and the Brewers' .504. The Braves' extra .018 is worth about 1.5 wins over the rest of the season. The Mets is worth about a half a game, and the Cardinals' is negligible. Given that Atlanta is 6.5 games back and New York is 5 games back, average performance alone going forward will not help them catch the Brewers. One among the Mets, Braves, Cardinals, or even Dodgers is liable to catch fire over the last three months, but at the moment, the Brewers appear to be in the drivers seat.
BCB brings up some good points. Mainly, that there are options to consider other than trading for C.C. Sabathia or doing nothing:
(1) Trade for a different pitcher. Bedard comes at a major discount. Likewise with A.J. Burnett, though he's a fucking asshole. Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch, etc.
(2) Trade LaPorta straight-up for a top pitching prospect. Usually, because I hate pitching prospects, I would be opposed to this. But given the Brewers' needs and depth, this is the ideal move.
(3) Trade LaPorta and Co. for a young pitcher with some MLB experience but more than just 2 months with the Brewers.
(4) Trade Prince Fielder and slide LaPorta to first. Here's the easy way to get young pitching and really make the team a force for years to come. How much pitching could the Brewers get for Fielder? An awful lot.
(5) Give it up and trade Ben Sheets. This would be somewhat nuts right now. But, if it's July 31 and the Brewers have gone into a slump, not only would it be idiotic to trade for Sabathia, but it would be stupid to keep Sheets.
The good thing about trading for Sabathia now is that he gets another 4 or 5 starts with the team. Teams know this. That's why the asking price is so high right now. Wait a while, though, and the price goes down. The Indians and other sellers are more motivated to get something than the Brewers are to buy, in my opinion. By waiting, the Brewers can assess whether they're still in a good position to make the playoffs. This is one of the most streaky teams in baseball. There's a good chance they're behind 4 teams for the wildcard come July 31. You don't trade then.
The thing about the Mets, Braves and Cardinals is that they're close enough to worry about and all about the same level of talent as the Brewers at this point. Anything can happpen in two months (look at last year). It's baseball. You want to be competing against 1 team, not 4 or 5. The better team doesn't always win and crazy shit happens.
An interesting thought - what if the Brewers include Bill Hall's contract with the deal? The price seems steep as is, but the inclusion of hall's contract would tip the value balance a little closer to Milwaukee.
**Note, I did not specifically include 'Bill Hall'. That would be unfair to Cleveland. They would pay him to play in Milwaukee like any rational-minded organization would.
It looks like this is getting pretty close to being final. It's pretty disappointing. Sports radio was hilarious, as always. People tend to forget about that whole 6+ years vs. 2.5 months thing. "The Brewers are guaranteed to make the playoffs and should go deep into the postseason." Um. That's a bold statement.
Take Taylor Green out and throw in pitcher Rob Bryson. Before the year, I ranked Bryson the 5th best prospect in the system. He has had a pretty good year in West Virginia, with 20 BB, 73 K and a 4.25 ERA in 55 innings. He was still the second best pitching prospect in the system. This one stings a bit. Bryson has a very good arm, is only 20 years old and has had much success in the minors. The only knock against him is that some think he'll end up as a reliever. Still, he's a very good prospect.
It doesn't look like Taylor Green is included, but Zach Jackson (who cares?) and an additional PTBNL are involved. Let's hope the PTBNL is no one special.
I'll go on record and say I'm not a fan of the deal. I understand the motivation and certainly understand why Melvin was compelled to make the move. Let's cross our fingers and hope Sabathia works out.
I was writing a long rambling post but condy and BCB pretty much summed up my viewpoints. So I am just going to say this untill we know the final players in the trade. At least the trade is for the best pitcher available.I dont like it but I can live with the crew loosing LaPorta for CC who is an absolute beast vs losing a Gamel for an A.J. Burnett or equivalent rental pitcher. Let's hope this move takes the crew to the playoffs. As with any playoffs they would have a puncher's chance to win but at least now they would be punching with two hands(pitching and hitting) vs one.
Did a little research here. If used properly, Sabathia can make 19 starts with the Brewers. It will be essential for him to start Tuesday, the following Sunday and then the first game after the all-star break. With many days off in August and a couple in September, the Brewers should be on a 4-man rotation at that point.
This is going to be something that has the potential to bother me. Sabathia is here for 2.5 months. The Brewers must get as much out of him as possible, and the same is true for Sheets (though injury history is a major problem with him). You got him, you might as well abuse him. If used inappropriately, he gets 16 or 17 starts. That might be the one-win swing that affects the playoff push.
Ok pessimistic the blog, what the fuck?
The outfield is the position where the Brewers have the most depth; most teams would kill to have Braun and Hart in their outfield. Laporta was drafted as a trading piece, and as I recall, people were questioning why he was drafted when the Crew have lots of power bats who can only play corner positions.
The way I see it, the Brewers just traded a potential 6+ years of talented overkill for 3 months of service from last year's AL CY Young. The guy has a 3.83 ERA in the AL with no run support and a fucking terrible bullpen. Look for that ERA to drop almost instantly in NL with Babe Hardy and crew giving him some offensive help.
Finally, of the potentially playoff-bound NL teams, none would have a better 1-2 punch than Sheets/Sabbathia, and, in the process, a weak Brewers bullpen gets a great long relief pitcher in McClung.
I'll be at Tuesday's game because I'm equally excited to see this beast hit.
Side note: Jason Varitek makes the All-Star game batting a whopping .219.
Thank you bubsbrother. The pessimism here is getting a little overwrought (especially for the team with the 2nd best record in the NL). Unless my memory fails me, a few months ago you guys were talking about having to trade either gamel or laporta, so this shouldn’t be a major shock to the system. Also, I get the 2.5 months v. 6+ years argument, but that assumes we cannot draft a capable replacement for laporta. Assuming we receive 4 draft picks for sheets and sabathia, we should be able to find at least one solid player in addition to the original first rounder. If he develops in a similar fashion, he’ll be major league ready in at least 3 years. Thus, only losing 3 years of Laporta brilliance (which is a crapshoot itself). Remember the Hall and Weeks were big time prospects…I’d also recommend reading Mike Hunt’s column from Sunday’s paper regarding the rollie fingers trade and a cant miss prospect. Needless to say, I’m in favor of this trade – one in the hand is as good as two in the bush.
Well I guess there's only one thing left to do
I believe I've bandied enough optimism around this place to warrant a little disapproval. This trade has only two opportunities for success: 1. Making the playoffs by fewer games than incremental victories that Sabathia produced or 2. Making/winning the World Series.
I don't care what other can't miss prospects have done in the past, Matt LaPorta is the real deal. Weeks and Hall's numbers in the minors don't sniff LaPorta's. LaPorta is going to be a good player in this league. He's going to be cost controlled for the six years straddling his age 27 season. There's also a reduced chance that even one of the five players selected between 20 and 35 next June will reproduce his skills. The Brewers gave up a lot in this deal, and while I'm not 100% opposed, I will only be happy if one of the two above scenarios plays out.
Also, B'sB, the Diamondbacks give the Crew a run for their money, and may have a better overall rotation.
Several, several points:
(1) I don't think anyone is pessimistic about Sabathia's ability or what he'll do for the Brewers. I think Sabathia is an excellent pitcher (and hitter) who will post a sub-3 ERA for the Brewers. I think he will be used mostly appropriately and get 18 starts. For that, he will be worth between 2 and 3 wins, which is very good.
(2) There is much more to this deal than LaPorta. Bryson is a very good pitching prospect. It sounds like Taylor Green or Michael Brantley will be the other name involved. Both Green and Brantley are very good prospects.
(3) I noticed that "Hall was a big time prospect." I immediately object to that, as you would expect. Was that Condey baiting? Here are his stats. Career .692 OPS in the minors and couldn't field at all. Came up in 2002 as, well, a joke and because it was the 2002 Brewers. Really bad baseball player. Always was. The reason I've hated him for 6 seasons.
Weeks was a big time prospect, but even he didn't put up the numbers LaPorta is putting up. Weeks was, and probably still is today, much more raw than LaPorta. The potential is still there, and let's not forget Weeks has a career .752 OPS in the majors. That's not bad for a 2B who is 3 years into his career and still only 25 years old.
(4) The Brewers' recent success with hitting prospects transitioning to the majors has been superb. LaPorta's numbers are very similar to Braun's and Fielder's. I am confident LaPorta will be a very valuable major leaguer.
(5) Statistics make baseball less fun. In this case, it would be much more fun to be a Brewers fan if I wasn't plagued by that pesky run differential thing. The Brewers are +11 in the run differential column. The Cubs? +102. And the Cubs are up 3.5 games on the Brewers and have battled through injury problems. The Cubs will not be caught by the Brewers, who would need 2 or 3 more C.C. Sabathiae to square up. Sure, crazier things have happened. But that's not what you want to be saying to yourself as a fan. The good thing is that the Cubs will feel forced to trade for either AJ Burnett or Dick Harden now.
I do think that this puts the Brewers as the favorite for the wild card. Call me optimistic. Or don't. Because the Brewers have what I'd say are 3 teams that have just about the same amount of talent who are vying for the wild card, the odds are not as great as people think for the Crew.
(6) The Brewers are not logjammed in the outfield and first base. 3 good outfielders, 4 in 2 seasons, is not a logjam, especially when first base is going to open up in 3 years, injuries occur, there's still a chance of Gamel at third, and any one of the logjammed players, if such a case actually arose, could alternatively be traded for something long-term.
(7) I'm never going to get over the 6+ years versus 3 months thing. It's not pessimism against the Brewers. I say this every year about every team trading prospects. Top prospects are 100X more valuable than they're given credit for, and teams are finally starting to cherish them.
The minute this trade went down, I thought of one thing. 2002. Indians trade Bartolo Colon as a 3-month rental to the beloved Montreal Expos. The Expos sent the Indians the following players:
-Grady Sizemore. Compare Sizemore's numbers and age to Michael Brantley's. No, Brantley will not become the superstar that Sizemore is. He's probably not big enough. But let's keep going.
-Cliff Lee. Currently up for the AL Cy Young. Has put together a nice career in Cleveland.
-Brandon Phillips. One of the best 2B in baseball, who the Indians really lost out on.
At the time of the deal, the Expos were 41-36, making s strong push for the playoffs in a competitive NL East. However, the organization overlooked a -8 run differential and, facing public pressure, overestimated the team's chances of making the postseason. The Expos did not make the postseason, finishing a staggering 18 games behind the Braves and 12 games behind wild card winner, San Fransisco. It was a trade the franchise regrets dearly to this day.
I have always hated these deals and I always will. I'm certainly not saying the Brewers will be hurt as bad as the 'Spos were, but I was taken aback by how similar the circumstances are between that trade and this one. I don't want to be sitting in the stands with 8,000 other fans in 2012 because the Brewers are scoring 3 runs a game. I'd take the chances of missing the playoffs this season for the security of knowing that the Crew will have some solid hitters in a few years.
I love that the Brewers have Sabathia, and I'm very excited to see him pitch. But they gave up too much for him. No other team would have offered nearly this much, and in the rush to get an extra 3 starts out of him, the Brewers gave up Bryson and probably either Green or Brantley. That is highly objectionably to me.
I think my point of view is so different than most people's because I am optimistic. To most, losing Ben Sheets means the Brewers won't win in 2009. That's bull shit. They should be better in 2009, or at least they would have been with LaPorta. And in 2010, even better than that. And maybe in those seasons they won't be in the same division as the second best team in baseball (Rays are obviously the best baseball team in the world's history). I just don't like sacrificing the near future. It's not like LaPorta was in single-a here.
I do respect everyone's position, as it's natural to be excited about the next 3 months. I hope everyone understand's my position. The Brewers have never made the playoffs in my lifetime. To me, that has made me patient and always looking long-term. I understand why others can't be patient any more.
And I love the discussion we're having. Sorry Meiz.
Condy, your baseball analysis is always a great read and makes me sound really smart when talking Brewers with non-bloggers, thanks.
Your run differential discussion definitely has curtailed my expectations for the Brewers in the division, although let's not forget that the team did nothing but play extra inning games in April and now rarely plays a full 9. I'd look for that differential to improve, but I think you're right, they won't catch the Cubs.
I think the Sabbathia move is a revenue generating one overall: the Brewers get a Cy Young to pitch for three months without having to pay Cy Young contract money but are still putting more asses in the seats because of the excitement (bloggers included).
I think the Brewers organization definitely understands the importance/benefit of developing young talent...that young talent was the rookie of the year last year and will start in a week in New York. Furthermore, I'm pretty sure we all heard about how last year's successful Brewers team was a truly home grown team about as much as we heard that AJ Hawk was doing Brady Quinn's sister.
The move is very near-sighted, but almost necessary. I'm not going to sit and lament this deal even if Laporta is next year's MVP and C.C. gets hurt tomrrow. 5 Years ago, the Brewers spent 32 Million (in the bottom 3 of the league at the time) on their team...now they just dealt for last year's Cy Young.
It's time for playoff baseball to return to Milwaukee and now is the best possible opportunity for the organization trade star prospects for ready-made talent since the Brewers last played in October in '82.
Oh, and TB, draw up a bet involving chili and comparing the Brewers pitching to the Diamondbacks...come the end of September, I'd bet Sheets/Sabbathia's numbers are better than Webb's and Harden's.
I will admit that the move is absolutely beloved by Brewers fans and will go a very long way in increasing interest in the Brewers. From a marketing and PR standpoint, it's huge. And as I said yesterday, given the public desire for the trade and the media attention, Doug Melvin and Co. absolutely had to make the move. Had they not and the Brewers missed the playoffs, even if they missed them by 20 games, Melvin's job would be in jeopardy.
I'll get bold and say the Brewers draw 3,000,000 fans this season. That's a huge accomplishment.
I will give BCS and Jack Z a collective pat on the back with LaPorta. We all loved the pick when it happened while others, even BP, questioned the pick. We even said in our 2007 draft day rant that LaPorta would be excellent trade bait to any AL team.
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