Baseball Bets
$lash leaves for Vegas in 16 days, so we'll need to get our over/under bets to him soon. Below are the current odds for all 30 teams. I will make my choices in the comments, but without even looking at the numbers, I'm pretty sure I'll be taking Seattle and San Francisco under, at least.
New York Mets - 93.5
Philadelphia - 88.5
Atlanta - 85.5
Washington - 71.5
Florida - 68.5
Chicago Cubs - 87.5
Milwaukee - 84
Cincinnati - 78.5
St. Louis - 77
Houston - 74.5
Pittsburgh - 68.5
Arizona - 87.5
Los Angeles Dodgers - 87
San Diego - 84
Colorado - 83.5
San Francisco - 71.5
Boston - 94.5
New York Yankees - 93.5
Toronto - 85
Tampa Bay - 74
Baltimore - 66
Detroit - 94.5
Cleveland - 90.5
Chicago White Sox - 77.5
Minnesota - 73
Kansas City - 72.5
Los Angeles Angels - 92.5
Seattle - 84.5
Texas - 74.5
Oakland - 73.5
Labels: Gambling
posted by Brew City Bub @ 3:36 PM
10 comments
10 Comments:
At first blush, my favorite bets, in order, are:
1. Seattle Under 84.5
2. Tampa over 74
These two bets are in a class by themselves. Those were the two I liked off the top of my head, and were confirmed by BP's preseason projections. PECOTA projects Seattle to win 73 games and Tampa Bay 89. I am actually more comfortable with Seattle covering than Tampa because of Tampa's youth and their division.
3. Oakland over 73.5
4. St. Louis under 77
5. San Francisco under 71.5
These are bets I would also consider. Each are consistent with PECOTA's projections, but lack the certitude of bets 1. and 2.
You have 16 days. I don't leave 'til the 18th. But yeah, I'll be needing them soon.
In the central, I like the Brewers over and the Cardinals under.
I'm not sure the Brewers will be much better than 84 wins, but there's potential there, and I'd get more enjoyment out of this bet than any other bet. As far as the cardinals, I think they'll be really bad this year. If the line were any higher than 77, this one would be a lock for me.
SF, Kansas City, and Seattle all under.
My overs:
Mets
Philly
Brewers
WhiteSox
Oakland
My Unders:
Cubs
Arizona
Dodgers
Yankees
Cleveland
Wow, white sox over 77 Meiz? I'll take the other side on that one . . .
Shit never goes as expected.
This comment has been removed by the author.
I like for the most part what you guys have said.
I don't see much reason to put money on any bet other than the Giants under, but I will anyway. I think I'm even more comfortable with the Giants under than I was with the Nationals under two years ago.
I'm pretty comfortable with the Orioles under 66 wins, especially considering the likelihood that Brian Roberts, if not traded before the season, will be traded during the season.
Tampa could realisticly finish anywhere between 60-90 wins, so I wouldn't touch them.
I like the Twins over 73 wins.
I'll also take the Marlins under 68.5 wins and, if you force me to, I'll also take the Nationals under 71.5 wins.
Give me a couple days and I'll get some other futures bets going...I love Adam Dunn's chances of winning the HR crown.
I can't believe Seattle under 84.5 isn't getting more love. To me, they're no better than the Cincinnati team that the market expects to win 77 games, and they're playing in the tougher league. Not to mention, they drastically outperformed their pythagorean last year which makes bettors overvalue them this year, a la Washington in 2006.
I like the under on Seattle, for sure, though I worry about it a little because they are going for broke this season. Because the Angels really aren't good enough to completely run away with the division, the idiotic Mariners are probably going to make a bunch of moves that make them better in the short term. We've already seen this with the Bedard acquisition. Still, the "aw-fense" is just terrible, and it's tough to win 85 games in the AL, regardless of division, so I'd put money on the under.
I'll get a formal top-5 bets to you, $, within the next couple days. The Mariners under would probably be in my top-5, though once again that bet is nowhere near as good as the Giants under. The Giants will struggle to score 500 runs this year!
Post a Comment
<< Home