Fantasy Baseball Installment 7: Relief Pitchers

RELIEF PITCHER RANKINGS

For those who don't pay too much attention, this list should be very helpful. Those pitchers that I'm reasonably confident will be their teams' closers are highlighted in blue. There are 29 of those pitchers. Try to grab 4 or 5 in your draft, and you'll have a great head start in saves. There is only one team whose closer situation appears to be headed to a closer by committee - the Reds. I've highlighted their potential closers in red. At this point, the thought is that Stanton and Weathers will split the duty. By the middle of the year, I predict Todd Coffee will be closing. By the end of the year, Bill Bray may be closing. At this point, no one knows. If you're desperate for saves, take Weathers or Stanton and keep an eye on the situation. Maybe even take a flier on Coffee.

I'll explain my rankings. Everyone gets a 1 in wins unless they are a prime setup guy, then they get a 2 because they'll have more opportunities for wins. Expect between 2-4 wins for most closers. Everyone gets a 1 for innings pitched because they just won't throw that many innings, meaning their ERA and WHIP scores are less meaningful. If the pitcher is a health risk, they get a 0 for innings pitched. Most closers have no upside because they already are slated to get a bunch of saves and don't pitch enough innings to really do anything great for your team. If a pitcher stands a good chance of being promoted during the year, they'll have an upside score.

As is always the case, you're better off drafting the 29 slated closers than you are drafting setup guys right away. There are a few exceptions. Zumaya, Otsuka, and Broxton all are really good pitchers and have a very solid chance of closing by the midpoint of the season.

The guys that are not highlighted are their teams' number 2 guys who have a chance to inherit the closer job soon enough. Keep a close eye on those guys. There is always a ton of turnover in the closer ranks, and saves is a category that's won and lost based on finding the replacement closers. Because finding replacements is relatively easy, it's not smart to waste too many high picks on closers.

Fantasy Baseball Installment 6: Starting Pitchers

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS

Here's where it's won and lost. Unlike all the other lists, this one deviates greatly from Yahoo's rankings. You see 7-15th round picks ranked throughout my top 20. There are dozens and dozens of top notch sleeper picks. I'll let my rankings describe those pitchers, as I briefly explain my system of evaluating pitchers.

• Nothing is more important than strikeouts. I rank guys that can strike people out much higher than I rank those who can't. Strikeouts are the best predictable/most consistent measure.
• Although walks are not a counted stat category, it is very important to look at a guy's walk rate.
• ERA is based on pitcher's talent, opponents, home stadium, defense and bullpen support.
• Wins are not very important because they are based significantly on team support. Pitchers pitching for teams that have good offenses or play easy schedules (National League teams) get boosts. Still, the difference between a guy on a good team and a food pitcher on a bad team is at most 1 or 2 points. Do not draft based on wins. Take good pitchers and wins will come.
• Pitchers in the NL get better rankings because of easier competition. Pitchers going from the AL to the NL this year get a lot of respect in my rankings.
• There are a ton of good pitching prospects. Pitching prospects tend to adjust to the league and become solid contributors much easier than hitters. Look at last year's rookie class.
• There is exceptional parity after Santana at the top. The pitchers with the best stuff also have the most injury concerns. The later in the draft that it is, the more accepting of injuries you should be.
• Don't be discouraged from picking a couple of injury prone pitchers. Replacement pitchers are generally much easier to find than replacement sluggers.
• I included only the pitchers that I think someone here might draft. If I didn't include a borderline player, assume that means I don't think you should ever draft that player.
• Try not to compare the total score for the pitchers versus batters. They are meant to compare pitchers to other pitchers and are not cross positional. I wouldn't draft Jake Peavy before Joe Mauer.

I'm sure people will have a lot of different opinions. What would you change?

Fantasy Baseball Installment 5: Catchers and Outfielders

I'll give everyone something to chew on over the weekend - a double dose of fantasy rankings.

CATCHER RANKINGS

This year's catcher crop is extremely thin, per usual. Will there be another Brian McCann to save someone's roster again this year? Maybe, but it's really hard to predict who that may be. My guess is Iannetta, but Napoli, Montero and Martin could surprise. All are young and haven't proven that they can't hit yet. MLB catchers are aging rapidly, and there has been a bit of a decline in the development of catching prospects lately. The three players at the top, Mauer, Martinez and McCann are heads and shoulders above the other catchers. Mike Piazza cracks the top four because he will be DHing all year and presumably getting more AB than other catchers. Piazza is still a very good hitter. The former good catchers, Posada, Varitek, and Rodriguez all have declining statistics. Yet, they're still top-10. If you can't grab one of the top three or 4, you might as well wait around for a long time. The marginal production difference between all the rest is slim to none.

OUTFIELDER RANKINGS

I figure I'd give people a lot of time to look over the outfield rankings. Is it just me or is there a lot of parity at the top of this year's outfield crop? I really don't draw much of a distinction between Soriano all the way down to Holliday. There are quite a few players at the top that would seem to be the "Five Category Producer." I'm a little worried about Beltran and Soriano because their 2005 seasons were terrible. Ramirez and Guerrero are the most consistent players on the list, and they give excellent production in power and batting average. But, they're a little older and more injury prone. Crawford is an excellent stolen base source and he's starting to find more and more power, but I'm not altogether confident in putting my first round pick on a guy with an .800 OPS. Still, those SB are very nice. Sizemore is a developing star who could be on the verge of a total breakout. But at this point, who knows if all those doubles are going to translate into homers? What if he reverts back to 2005 form and hits too many ground balls again? If he doesn't, he's a five category star. But, that's an if worth worrying about.

The one guy I rate a lot higher than everyone else is Bobby Abreu. Abreu comes as a total steal in this year's draft. People think he's over the hill and his power is gone. That's not true, and hitting as a lefty in Yankee stadium, with that lineup around him, is going to be huge. Throw in 30+ stolen bases and you have yourself easily the most underrated outfielder around. Use a third round pick on him if you can. There's no real surprises after that for a while. I'm very high on Delmon Young, but apparently so are a lot of people. I wouldn't go too crazy for him because his peak is probably 20 homers.

There are an awful lot of sleepers lower in the ranks. If you need stolen bases, Dave Roberts and Kenny Lofton will be available on the cheap. Although most of those lower guys won't be drafted, keep an eye on them. Hermida, Quentin, Hart, Lind, Baker, etc. One of those guys is going to have a nice year you have to figure.

Though there are some really fine OF at the top of this list, you probably shouldn't take more than 2 in the first 6 or 7 rounds. There are way too many sleeper picks on the bottom that you should roll the dice on. Even guys like Hawpe, Alou, Cuddyer or Bonds aren't altogether terrible as third OF. In my draft, I'm going to take Abreu in round 3, Dunn in round 7, Roberts in round 15, and Alou in round 16. When Alou and Roberts get hurt, I'll pick up whichever younger player is putting up monster stats.

Fantasy Baseball Installment 4: Third Basemen

Here are the Third Basemen Rankings.

As you'll see there are 3 top-2 round talents and another second/third round talent. After that, there isn't a whole lot of difference in who you pick. There is an awful lot of parity after Ramirez. That said, there are a lot of sleepers and a lot of guys with very high upside. Alex Gordon is one of those players. I'm assuming he's going to win the starting job in KC. Of course, there is risk that he doesn't. You don't want to draft him in the sixth round and then have him not play. Luckily, he's probably going to go very late in drafts. Yahoo has him ranked 907th. If you draft close to April, however, the media attention may push him much higher.

One thing you'll notice is that a lot of these players qualify at other positions. Most people will play guys like Figgins and Freel in the middle infield. This means that the pool of 3B talent isn't as deep as it appears. Gordon could fall much earlier than expected. (Note: if anyone has had a draft, where did he fall in it?). Guys like Ensberg and Encarnacion are not the worst picks in the world. And, if you totally drop the ball at 3B, you'll see that there are quite a few good prospects that could get the call midseason.

Opening Day Details, Part II

I included this in a comment to IFM's previous post, but I thought I'd post this for all to see. Here is an option for Opening Day:

http://www.leffs.com/opening_day.html

Fantasy Baseball Installment 3: Shortstops

Here are the Shortstop Rankings.

There is a bit of separation between the top 4 and the rest of the shortstops. SS, usually a weak position, is rather strong this year. There are numerous players with stolen base ability, and thanks to certain players qualifying at SS who shouldn't, like Glaus, there are quite a few power hitters, too. If you get one of the top 4, which will cost you a top-3 pick, that's great. If you don't, you have quite a few decent options from which to choose in later rounds. Unfortunately, the top 11 will probably all be gone by the end of the 7th round. The next three players on my list, Peralta, Drew, and Tulowitski come with considerable upside. But, each is risky because they haven't proven to be good producers. Most teams are going to have a good hitting SS. You don't want to be the only team struggling at the position. If you're stuck going with Peralta, Tulowitski, or Drew, make sure to grab one of the other three so that you have a bit more upside potential and insurance.

Opening Day Details

I want details. I haven't seen anything posted and haven't heard anything promising yet so I will call RC's today as soon as it opens and inquire. Expect me to post my findings as soon as I can.

Fantasy Baseball Installment 2: 2B and Lessons in Parity

Today's lesson comes in recognizing parity, which is something the Bub and I discussed yesterday. The best analytical skill a fantasy baseball player can have on draft day is recognizing when a player's production can almost be matched by a lower drafted player and when a player's production cannot be closely matched. Yesterday, I expressed my opinion that the production of players such as Travis Hafner, David Ortiz, Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols will not be replicable in lower rounds.

This year's crop of second basemen is the perfect illustration of parity.

Second Baseman Rankings

On top of the rankings is Chase Utley. Utley is heads and shoulders above his competition at 2B. Last year, he led all 2B in RBI, Runs and Home Runs. Throw in his .309 AVG and 15 stolen bases, and you have an all around elite player. Utley is worthy of a late first round selection. But, be careful with him. His production is wonderful, but it isn't as wonderful as a lot of other hitters that you can take that high in the draft. If you end up playing Ryan Freel in the outfield because you didn't get any better OF, then you made a bad choice by taking Utley. Sure, you could trade Utley to a team desparate for a 2B, but one assumption that I always make on draft day is that I won't be able to trade with anyone to get fair value. This is one of the problems with drafting middle infielders. You're not going to play a 2B at your UTIL position, so getting a late round sleeper won't do you much good if you've already filled the position.

That all said, I don't see a whole lot of sleepers at 2B. Utley is a safe pick in the late first round. What's most important is that you notice the parity after Utley. What's the difference between Robinson Cano and Howie Kendrick? I can assure you that Cano is not worthy of a fourth round pick when Kendrick is going to be available 10 rounds later. If you don't get Utley, then any of the next 16-23 guys are similar and there's no point in reaching for any one of them. There aren't many 2B prospect that figure to make a big difference, either. My best advice and personal preference is to get stolen bases and not much else from 2B (unless you're picking 10th and Utley is around, then take him.)

Fantasy Baseball Installment 1: 1B/DH and Early Round Draft Strategy

The first rule of fantasy baseball is that you cannot win your league in the first three rounds but you can lose it. What does that mean? It means you shouldn't draft risky players in the first round and you should limit your risk in the next two rounds. Take established players with a history of mashing the ball and no serious injury concerns. There is only one pitcher you should consider in the first two or three rounds, and that is Johan Santana. In my opinion, the least risky players to take a big sluggers. Some people will prefer a player like Jose Reyes to ensure a good finish in stolen bases in the first round. Personally, I'd rather take an all around good hitter that will contribute significantly to four categories instead of just two or three. Moreover, I think that stolen bases can be found much more freely than a 50 homer slugger. With this in mind, here are my first basemen and DH rankings:

First Basemen and Designated Hitters

The rankings are preliminary. I reserve the right to adjust them slightly as I finish up other positions and as we get towards spring.

I'll take a minute to explain my system. The rankings are not in the order of whom I believe is the best player. The rankings are based on a 5 X 5 league. So, if you have different stat categories in your private leagues, take that into account. For instance, if your league doesn't have stolen bases, subtract the SB score. The first categories are my estimation of how the player would do playing an expected amount of games in the season. The numbering ranges from 0-10. Next, I count Health and Playing Time concerns into the ranking. The range on that is 0-5. You'll notice a player like Nick Johnson gets a 1 while a healthy player like Mark Teixeira gets a 5. Health is a major concern in the early rounds. You want to avoid players with significant poor health histories, and you certainly want to avoid guys that may lose playing time. I wouldn't draft any player with a ranking below 3 in the first three rounds. Those categories give a raw score which is my best guess of how the player will do on the year. It is highly subjective.

After the raw score is the category "Upside." This is my attempt to capture a player's potential for a breakout year or to greatly exceed expectations. Younger players or players recovering from an unusually disappointing 2006 season will tend to have higher upside scores. The final line is the total score, which equals the mean projection with the potential for breakout. If players have the same total score, consider them tied. For instance, I would probably take David Ortiz over Ryan Howard. But, they have the same score, it's really close, and I didn't want to bother reordering them.

On the bottom, I've added players that won't be available to draft but who could be valuable additions later in the year. They're ranked low because they aren't getting playing time. They're just players to keep an eye on. If there are a lot of prospects at a position, consider that you'll have a better pool of talent at that position later in the year.

In the first base/DH rankings, there are quite a few first round players. That's because, in my opinion, you should always have a first baseman/DH playing your utility position on your team. Their offensive production is unparallelled. If you don't draft one of those top players in the first three rounds of your draft, you've failed. In those early rounds, draft based more on raw score than on the total score. Derrek Lee will probably return at least partially to his 2005 form. I'm not worried about his health. His injury should not carry over to 2007. But, what's more concerning is that he has only one season under his belt where he was worthy of a top 5 round pick. So, he has a high upside but is riskier than others.

Once again, Travis Hafner will be the most underrated player on the draft board. People will avoid him because he can only play DH. Once again, you're probably going to have another really good 1B on your team if you follow this strategy. So, it isn't going to hurt you to lose the roster flexibility by drafting Hafner. His rate stats were better than anyone else in baseball last year. His performance has been incredibly consistent, and his injury history (and not playing in NL parks) is concerning but not devastating. At least you'll get 500 AB out of him. That won't kill you. I'm preaching to the choir obviously. He's ranked 18th on Yahoo but very well could be available in the third round.

We can discuss other players as a group.

I will let the thousand words below explain my sentiments regarding the following article

It's about fucking time.

Introducing Fantasy Baseball 2007

Hello loyal Brew City Sports readers, it's that time of year again. It's fantasy baseball draft season! Yahoo will open up its fantasy baseball leagues this friday, and other leagues are already forming on other systems. Last year, we ranked players at every position, ordering just about every player that you'd ever consider for a fantasy baseball team. I ranked all the players and we discussed rankings as a group. It was a system that worked well, at least it did for me. I finished first in all four of my fantasy baseball leagues last year. I'm still looking to perfect the ranking system, so I've made some changes to the categories this year. As always, I encourage criticism and discussion. It's that discussion that makes us all more knowledgeable and prepared to draft.

There are a lot of other sites that discuss draft strategies, top players, and sleepers. In my opinion, most sites are garbage. They're all too standardized and fail to fully capture breakout potential and whether a player's numbers were highly influenced by luck. I also think that most sites will miss the significant talent differences between the AL and NL. And, every site I've ever seen overvalues the top-notch relief and undervalues lower end closers. It is my hope that we are the best site available for fantasy baseball draft prep.

I'll post general draft strategies this weekend and will begin positional postings next week. I hope you're all ready to discuss and anxious to get the year started.

In closing, make sure to watch the classic Brewers game televised tonight in the Milwaukee area. It is the Brewers' 13th straight win on April 20th, 1987. It was a scortching day in Milwaukee, setting a record high Milwaukee temperature for the day. Only serving to make things more hot was Rob Deer. You'll just have to watch tonight to see his performance.

Audits Commercial Break

Assuming es ist nichts verboten to the orderly parade of team audits upgebreaken, I thought I would direct our attention a Brewers game picture that won 3rd prize for "sports action" in the World Press worldwide yearly photo contest.

Who's that embarrassingly sprawled out in the right batters' box, and need I even ask if Fielder was responsible for Eliezer Alfonzo's status?

Cincinnati Reds 2007 Audit

2007 Projections:
76-86
720 runs scored 800 runs allowed
Chances of making the postseason: 19 percent--with a wind chill of 2 percent

Overview:
Something tells me this year's version of the Cincinnati Reds will compare warmly to a Greek mythology metaphor of sorts. Wayne Krivsky inherited a rather unique and unfamiliar situation when he took the reigns just over a year ago. The Reds were most likely the premiere hitting and power lineup in the National League--without a doubt the most entertaining offensive team to watch. Then Wayne had the urge to do away with his team's Sampson-like locks and send it to face the lion-- I love hyperbole. Now without its strength (hitting and scoring runs) the team only rallies around its weakness (pitching and fielding). By trading Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns he decided to try to turn the roster into something it's never been or never will be--a carbon copy of the Minnesota Twins. A mid-season trade that sent a bulk of the lineup's strength to our nation's capitol for bullpen help and an over-the-hill shortstop whose cornrows extend further than hitting prowess suddenly became the death blow to the 2006 season. The Reds had an identity of hitting homers and outscoring opponents. This coupled with the occasional pitching gems like the one turned in by Bronson Arroyo against Ben Sheets in Milwaukee last summer, seemed to be the best recipe for the Reds to sneak into the NL playoff picture. With Krivsky, the identity has been changed to center around pitching and defense, which aren't terrible things to strive for, but at what cost?

In lieu of this decision the Reds flirted with a .500 record and were in wild-card contention until the last few weeks of the season and managed to make some positive moves this winter. Adam "Home" Dunn remains the face of the organization and the cornerstone of the franchise. But Krivsky made some essential re-signings along with some acquisitions that may prove to stopgap the holes created by their haste for a playoff surge. I particularly wanted to wait to do this piece until I knew the biggest moves of the offseason were addressed. Pitching issues including the starting rotation and bullpen were taken care of by locking up the staff's two top pitchers for at least the next four years. Bronson Arroyo just signed a two-year extension with an option for 2011, and Aaron Harang just inked a four-year extension with an option for 2011. This lays the foundation for the hopefully Krivsky's vision. Next he went out and re-signed Kyle Lohse to a one-year extension and traded for right-handed starter Kirk Saarloos from Oakland. The bullpen was addressed by re-signing David Weathers and Eddie Guardado--who won't likely join the team until July, which means the closer by committee saga will likely continue. Mike Stanton was signed from the Giants. But the biggest everyday position moves had to be shipping Jason LaRue off to Kansas City, re-upping with catcher David Ross and reaching a deal with shortstop Alex Gonzalez. Ross is a Georgia boy who'll be 30 when the season starts and Gonzalez remains a solid bottom of the lineup smack hitter whose power numbers might bounce back to the respectable ones he displayed in a pitcher's park for the Marlins in 2003 and 2004.

The Lineup:
Catcher-- Ross proved last year that he has power and can manage this staff. His numbers were quite high when compared to most catchers .255/.353/.579. I'll take those numbers from a lower-lineup fixture any day of the week, especially from a solid defensive catcher. As long as he's not brandishing the arm of an 8-year-old boy or Matthew LeCroy he'll be adequate. The only problem here is that he's never really been through an entire season as the top catcher. His at bats will likely move from 247 to around 450, so it remains to be seen if he can produce in more of a long-term role. His 21 homers remain quite tantalizing nonetheless. The backups include Javier Valentin and Chad Moeller. Valentin is decent off the bench and we all know Moeller is a waste of a perfectly good cup.

First Base-- It would be a dream to start talking about the big donkey in this slot, but the mythical beast has sworn to never leave his kingdom in left field. The man is incapable of being swayed to LEARN the position and will continue to try my patience every half inning. But I digress, Scott Hatteberg will take first base for the Reds. He's not exciting, but he gets the job done--so to speak (.289/.389/.436). His power is down compared to prototypical first basemen, but he seems to be qualified to uphold the Reds' legacy of slap-hitting first basemen: Sean Casey, Hal Morris, Todd Benzinger, Nick Esasky, etc.

Second Base--Brandon Phillips is set for a down year after his impressive breakout in 2006. His numbers (.276/.324/.427) aren't eye popping, but the kid was given up on by two other teams and the fact he was acquired for next to nothing makes last season look even better. Rumors of moving to shortstop were silenced after the Gonzalez signing, so now he can settle in at second for years to come. Normally frowned upon by many posters on this board, his success in the stolen bases category can't be overlooked either as a major asset to his game. He stole 25 bases last season with a 92 percent success rate, which makes his numbers relevant.

Shortstop--Gonzalez is coming in with minimal expectations from the front office except convert the routine plays that plagued Felipe Lopez and past players. His job is to get on base so the big donkey can eat. Destined for the eighth spot in the order his job is to not give the opposition extra out to work with. While I want more, this seems to be Krivsky's MO. Perhaps leaving Boston and lofty expectations could be just what he needs to return to his peak form with the Marlins of 15-20 homers and a .250 avg. He's got to hang with Dunn and learn to take the first three pitches no matter what.

Third base-- Encarnacion showed glints of promise despite an up and down 2006. They need this guy to improve his putrid defensive performance and continue to make strides with the stick. Defense aside, he produced runs and his numbers were on the rise near season's end. With Hatteberg not going yard much over at first, his power numbers--despite his 33 doubles--must improve in order to make up ground. Unfortunately for Reds fans I see his numbers hovering right around last year's (.276/.359/.473) with the hope he improves his pitch selection.

Outfield--Dunn is a gonna produce his three true outcomes and play a left field resembling Timmy Lupus. Griffey should swallow his pride and move the circus over to right field, but he'll likely start in center. He still has power and anchors the top third of the lineup despite his limp-wristed rollovers to first base. Maybe it's time to look into setting him up with some bionic limbs ala Lee Majors. Maybe then he'd only miss games via hangovers and herpes. Ryan Freel should man the third spot and continue to hustle his way to respect much like last season. Other options are Bubba Crosby, Chris Denofia, or Todd Hollandsworth should Krivsky decide to re-sign him.

Starting Pitching-- Harang and Arroyo should come close to repeating their solid 2006 seasons, and after that is anyone's guess. The only certainty is that Eric Milton, Saarloos, Elizardo Ramirez, Lohse, and the vampire Victor Santos will likely be the candidates to fill out the other starting spots. Right now it looks like it'll probably be Lohse, Milton and Saarloos, but I can never tell who'll be healthy. I was glad to see Claussen finally let go and remain hopeful that Ramirez can improve his control and build on last season where he finally located his changeup--thanks Mario Soto. I seriously think he could eventually make his way to the third or more likely fourth spot. The Saarloos pickup pleases me in the respect that his numbers weren't too shabby in Oakland besides his 53 walks in 121.1 innings, and his arrival signals that Krivsky is planning on waiting at least another year before calling up Bailey. He's a groundball pitcher who doesn't give up an extraordinary number of extra base hits.

Bullpen--The closer by committee era will enter its second straight year following the implosion of Danny Graves. The Saarloos trade helped the longevity of this phase considering Billy Beane asked for and received the Reds AA Chatanooga closer David Shafer. Shafer, 25, was 1-2 with a 2.36 ERA and 26 saves while striking out 52 batters and walking 16 in 49.2 innings. Reds scouts are currently in Scottsdale trying to get a look at Dustin Hermanson who's trying to come back from back problems. Guardado isn't expected back until the second half, so this bullpen is going to be a mess. Last time I checked they will have at least five lefties at Narron's disposal including Bray, Cormier, Stanton, Shackleford and Merker (if re-signed). Wouldn't it be something if any of those guys were worth a wet sneeze? Bray and Stanton could materialize, but the others don't have much more to offer. Todd Coffey is still a serviceable option and has decent control. He flopped in the closer role last year--for the most part--but was brought along as a closer throughout the farm system and may still round out to fill that spot.

Future Outlook-- The farm system is slowing crawling out of the abyss it was cast into by the ruthless Marge Schott of the Third Reich. Homer Bailey is responsible for the majority of the system's recent rankings, but there are some other promising prospects coming up the ranks although most are very underdeveloped.

1. Homer Bailey RHP, 20, has been rumored to be a mid-season (if not sooner) call up. He will most likely start the season at AAA after quickly making his way through the system last year. His major problems continue to be developing his secondary pitches that compliment his heater. Another year in the minors might be just what he needs to develop his offspeed and breaking pitches. His stats last year included 138.3 IP, 156 K, 50 BB.

2. Joey Votto 1B, 23, is a power hitting canuck with the promise to finally give Cincinnati a power-hitting first baseman. Playing for AA Chattanooga last season, Votto was named the Southern League MVP (.319/.408/.547). He had 22 homers and also led the league in hits (162), doubles (46), extra-base hits (70), total bases (278), runs scored (85) and walks (78). He's probably another season away from the Majors but could use the camp to turn some more heads. I like the fact that this kid likes to take walks. Can someone say little donkey?

There are other prospects like outfielders Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs, but those guys are years away from being ready to flirt with a jump to the show.

Previous Audits:
Seattle Mariners
New York Yankees
Detroit Tigers
Boston Red Sox
Texas Rangers
Baltimore Orioles
Cleveland Indians
Kansas City Royals
Washington Nationals
Pittsburgh Pirates
Florida Marlins
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks

Seattle Mariners 2007 Audit

2007 Projections:
71 – 91, 3rd Place AL West
711 runs scored – 829 runs allowed
Chances of making postseason: 11%

Overview:
The Mariners just ain’t what they used to be. After a nice run of winning over 90 games for four straight years, the Mariners have finished in last place in the AL West for the past three years. The decline surely was the result of maintaining a truly ancient roster from the late 90’s through the remarkable 116-win 2001 season. After that season, the Mariners treaded ground trying to keep up with the A’s and Angels. They aged as their rivals got really good. After a 93-win 2003 season, the Mariners replaced long time successful GM Pat Gillick with Bill Bavasi. Bavasi remains the Mariner GM to this day. He inherited a rapidly declining team and failed to revitalize it. I can’t really blame him for the decline from 2003 to 2004. It isn’t his fault the pitchers came back to earth. But his moves over the next three years have often been laughable. He started by giving Carlos Guillen away to the Tigers in a salary dump of sorts. He traded Freddy Garcia to the White Sox for Jeremy Reed, who never panned out. He signed Richie Sexson and Adrien Beltre to incredibly risky deals at above reasonable market rate. Sexson and Beltre predictably got hurt and their salaries remain an albatross to this day.

Bavasi saved perhaps his worst moves for this latest winter, though. The Mariners traded Rafael Soriano, a player with outstanding upside, for the middling Horacio Ramirez. He also traded FOR Jose Vidro, using two of the team’s few players with long term potential to take on more salary for a nearly disabled utility man. Oh, and he spent money on Miguel Batista and Jeff Weaver.

Throughout his tenure, Bavasi has basically ignored medical science and injury history. Bill, this isn’t MVP Baseball 2005. You can’t alter your dynasty options and turn off injuries, silly! In 2007, Bavasi’s last year as GM, we’ll see another series of injuries and less than 80 wins out of a still rather expensive lineup. But I guess the Mariners aren’t totally out of it. If there is a winnable division in the AL, it is the West.

The Lineup:
Catcher – Kenji Johjima started his career to mixed reviews. His hitting was rather good for a catcher (.783 OPS). He’s very aggressive early in the count and has good contact skills. So he’ll never walk much, and his OBP will be low. But he has very good power for a catcher. On the other side of the coin, his defense was ripped apart by almost every analyst around. He apparently doesn’t handle a pitching staff well, and language issues were a problem for him. I’m not so sure if all that blame belongs on Johjima. The Mariners had some really bad pitchers that were desperate for an excuse. Rene Rivera will back up Johjima. He’s your typical catcher who hits like a backup catcher. But Rivera is only 23 years old, so maybe he’ll improve.

Designated Hitter/First Base – Richie Sexson is still a good hitter. He had an .842 OPS last year in a pitcher’s park. But, what was disturbing was his decline in his Three True Outcome production. His walk, home run and strikeout rates all decreased substantially. As he began putting more balls in play, his OPS fell about 80 points. I expect Sexson to figure out how to keep the bat on his shoulder more and swing harder when he actually swings and get his OPS back up toward .900 in 2007. He has recovered rather well from the injury that destroyed his 2004 season and remained healthy over the past two years. The other member of DH/1B will be Ben Broussard. He’s an okay player but below average hitting as a DH or 1B. An .800 OPS isn’t too impressive from a position expected to produce an .850+ OPS. He’s got decent power but very little plate discipline.

Because of injury issues, Jose Vidro likely will be relegated to DH, putting Broussard on the bench. Vidro is a very smart hitter, and he’s had a nice career. But his value came from the fact that he played the middle infield, something he can no longer do. He can’t run any more and hits a home run about once every 50 AB. If Broussard doesn’t cut it at DH, does a guy who doesn’t slug .400 cut it there? No. I don’t understand what Bavaso saw in Vidro. Consider, too, that Vidro’s knees resemble wet toilet paper.

Second Base – Jose Lopez is 23 years old, but he already has logged 1,000 Major League at-bats. He hasn’t been impressive, but he has consistently improved. 2007 could be a breakout campaign for him. He had a couple of impressive seasons in the minors. Even if he doesn’t break out, another year of slight improvement would put him near a .750 OPS, which is about average for a 2B.

Shortstop – Yuniesky “Roids” Betancourt, not to be confused with the Indians’ Roids Betancourt, is a 25-year-old that was signed out of Cuba a few years ago. Like many other foreign signees, Roids’ approach is to swing his way to success. He’s terribly overaggressive at the plate and will probably struggle again to post an OPS much over .700. That isn’t too bad from a SS with flashy defense, though. Backing up the middle infielders will be the oft humiliated Willie Bloomquist. Bloomquist is one of those guys that keeps viewers on the edge of their seats. Some viewers, I’ll call them fucking idiots, will sit wide eyed, in awe of how much hustle Willie is showing on the field. Viewers like me, I’ll call them cynical assholes, will sit smiling, wondering how someone can hustle that much and still fail to post a .300 SLG. He’s really exciting. Everyone can agree on him.

Third Base – Adrien Beltre was bad from 1998-2003 and from 2005-2007. He was unbelievable in 2004. Guess when the Mariners signed him? That sucks, eh? Beltre hasn’t come close to the 1.017 OPS he had in 2004 before or after. In fact, he’s been about 300 points short of that each of the last two years. He’ll be 28 this year, so guess there’s still hope that he rebounds. But that 2004 season looks like a mirage at this point. That mirage is costing the Mariners $13,000,000 a year, which I guess isn’t that much any more.

Outfield – Ichiro Suzuki is the best player on the team. Even though he is only about an .800 OPS guy with no power, his defense and baserunning are as good as anyone in the league. He’ll try his luck in center field this season, which is a role I think he can handle. He had 45 stolen bases to just 2 caught stealings last year. That’s awesome. His speed game doesn’t appear to be diminishing as he reaches his mid-30’s.

Raul Ibanez had the best year of his career last year, slugging 33 home runs with an .869 OPS. He probably won’t do that well again in 2007, but he’s a league average left fielder. Expect about a .290/.355/.465 season out of him. Right field is up for grabs for the Mariners. Jose Guillen is back and recovering from elbow surgery. If healthy, he’ll have an .820 OPS with a good arm in right field. That’s assuming he recovers from the surgery well. Jeremy Reed, the once highly regarded prospect, has seen just 700 AB over the past two years. He’s shown absolutely no power and hasn’t hit for average. The death knell has sounded on his status.

The Mariners have a couple of other options. They could be fooled by small sample sizes, think Mike Morse is good, and give him significant playing time. That’s a bad choice, though arguably better than playing Guillen, Broussard and Vidro. Or, the Mariners could keep Ichiro in right and play their top prospect Adam Jones in center field. Jones could use some more seasoning, though, and there’s little need to rush him at the moment. He already has had a 32-game cup of coffee.

The Pitching:
There is precious little depth of experienced, good pitchers both in the rotation and the bullpen. I’d say an injury to a starter would hurt a lot except that three of the starters are so bad that an injury could hardly be viewed as terribly destructive.

Starting Pitching – Felix Hernandez was the top pitching prospect in baseball not long ago. He’s only 20 years old and has 275 innings in the Majors under his belt. He struggled last year for sure, posting a 4.52 ERA. But his peripherals were rather good despite the ERA, and his stuff is top-notch. His K:BB was almost 3:1, and he struck out about 8 per 9 innings. I expect his ERA to drop a full point this season. His ERA was 4.02 after the break last year, which is especially impressive considering that he was out of shape and probably worn out after pitching so many MLB innings for the first time. Hernandez is a major fantasy baseball sleeper.

Jarrod Washburn, like most other people with whom I associate, loves 17 year old girls. His ERA fluctuates regularly between 3.20 and 4.70 even though his rate stats seldom change dramatically. He relies heavily on his defense. This defense is about the same as it was last year, when he had a 4.67 ERA. That’s not to say the defense is or was bad, either. It isn’t bad. I’d expect about a 4.50 ERA this year.

Miguel Batista is one hell of a poet. Too bad he can’t pitch too. In all honesty, his 2006 was terrible. He was a 4.50ish ERA guy in the NL, which makes him a 5.00+ ERA guy in the AL. He is already 36 and has been rewarded with a 3-year, $25M contract. I’d say it was a bad move for a team like the Mariners that have very little to gain with Batista. Speaking of head-scratchers, Jeff Weaver and Horacio Ramirez will round out the rotation. Weaver is coming off a 5.77 ERA season, and he still can’t retire a left-handed hitter. Sure his ERA in LA from 2004-2005 was only slightly over 4, but that was in front of a good defense, in a pitcher’s park, and in the NL. And Weaver was a different pitcher then. I guess I’m just biased against “sinkerball pitchers” who give up 69 home runs in their last 390 innings. Horacio Ramirez is terrible. He’s a sinkerballer, too. Like Weaver, he’s given up over 30 home runs in a season. Unlike Weaver, he doesn’t strike anyone out and walks way too many guys. Expect an ERA well over 5.00 as he moves to the AL, even with a good defense behind him.

The Bullpen – J.J. Putz exploded onto the scene in 2006. I’m always a bit skeptical of players with only one year of good numbers. But Putz’s numbers were so good that they should ease any concerns. He had 104 strikeouts and just 13 walks with a 2.30 ERA in 78.1 innings. Because he saved 36 games, fantasy players won’t be able to steal him late in drafts. He is one of the most underrated closers in the game, though. He has very good stuff. The arms behind Putz are very questionable. Veterans Chirs Reitsma and Author Rhodes are returning from elbow injuries. Reitsma’s ERA was a whopping 8.68 last year. Rhodes’ was 5.32. Rhodes is old and walked 6 men per 9 innings last year. I wouldn’t expect anything out of either of these two.

George Sherrill could take over for Putz if he gets injured. Sherrill is a lefty with pretty good stuff. He has excellent K numbers but is a little wild at this point. He spent a long time in the minors and will be 30 in this, his second full season. Jake Woods and Julio Mateo are two more low ceiling relievers. Mateo could be the second or third best pitcher in the pen, which doesn’t bode well for the Mariners. Mark Lowe looked to be the main setup guy for Putz late last season, but a serious elbow injury will make him a huge question mark for 2007. A lot of guys will fight for the final bullpen spot…far too many to discuss here. Some, like Eric O’Flaherty, are prospects that deserve a chance.

Future Outlook:
The Mariners have some nice young talent here and there and Mother Nature has cleared away the elderly label that this team had a few years back. But Seattle is a couple years away from competing. It needs to clear away bad contracts and the man that gave those bad contracts, Bill Bavasi. The farm system is about average right now, but the M’s have always shown an ability to find international talent and revitalize the system. The future really will depend on who replaces Bavasi.

The Farm System:
There are a few good players at the top but none are “can’t miss,” and the system is not especially deep at the moment.

1) Adam Jones – 21, CF. Jones is the consensus top prospect in the system. He played in Triple-A at age 21 and had a very respectable .829 OPS. All the tools are there, but he still has a lot of work to do on his plate approach. Furthermore, his power is still in the developmental stage. I’m always leery of toolsy players, but Jones, because of his age, has a lot of time and room to develop. He has been rushed through the system far too aggressively, and if his .548 OPS, 2 BB, 22 K performance in Seattle last years means anything, he’ll get a much needed chance to hone his skills in Triple-A.

2) Jeff Clement – 23, C. Clement was picked ahead of Jeff Zimmerman and Ryan Braun in the 2005 draft. He was one of the best college catchers in recent memory. Clement’s 2006 was a tale of two seasons. He started the year with 59 AB in Double-A, posting a .911 OPS and stabilizing himself as one of the top catching prospects around. Then, he suffered knee and elbow injuries. Still, the Mariners promoted him upon returning, furthering the notion that they rush their prospects. In Triple-A, he had a .668 OPS in 245 AB. He’ll start the year back in Triple-A, unless he gets injured, in which case he’ll be promoted again. What’s the rush? I don’t get it.

3) Brandon Morrow – 22, SP. Morrow was the M’s first round pick in 2006. He’s got good velocity and three pitches in his repertoire. Both are vital elements to long term success. But he struggles with control at times, and God knows the Mariners are going to rush him through the system. That could be highly detrimental to a pitching prospect who is far from fully polished.

Previous Audits:
New York Yankees
Detroit Tigers
Boston Red Sox
Texas Rangers
Baltimore Orioles
Cleveland Indians
Kansas City Royals
Washington Nationals
Pittsburgh Pirates
Florida Marlins
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks

New York Yankees 2007 Audit

New York Yankees

102-60, 1^st AL Central

930 Runs Scored, 750 Runs Allowed

90% chance of making playoffs

The Yankees chose a different path for this offseason than we’ve seen the past several years. Outside of their acquisition of Andy Pettitte, they shied away from bringing in high priced veteran talent, though they are still in the mix for Roger Clemens. They did also spend a small fortune on Kei Igawa, but he’s much younger than their usual targets, as well as cheaper. Metinks the luxury tax donations combined with lack of championships over the past few years have finally gotten to ol George. They’ll make the playoffs again this year, but because the playoffs are such a crapshoot, they may go another year without a championship.

Offense

I’m going to conduct this review differently, since most of you know a good deal about the entirety of the Yankees lineup. First, expect every Yankee offensive player to be drafted in your fantasy drafts. Second, this is the most OBP robots I have ever seen on one team. Four players should post a .400+ OBP (Giambi, Jeter, Abreu, Rodriguez) , and the other five offensive starters should be .360+ (Posada, Cano, Matsui, Damon, Cabrera). To put that into perspective, Rickie Weeks was the only starter for the Brewers to post a .360+ OBP, and it was .363 (Weeks is also the only Brewers offensive player that could sniff the Yankees’ lineup). This is a disgusting use of funds by the Yankees, but, in their defense, a very intelligent one, too.

So fine, they clog the bases. Can they hit for power? Well, I’m glad you asked (and I’ll stop being so condescending now). Truthfully, they are not the most powerful team in the league, but they’re pretty damned close. I would expect to see another four players post .500+ SLG (Giambi, Rodriguez, Cano, Matsui) and the rest of the team to be .475 plus. Good gravy!

So, why can’t every team construct an offense that will only make outs 60% of the time, and average a base every other at bat? Oh, because these nine offensive players cost $119 million last season, and TWO were under their rookie contracts, contributing about 800k to that number. To put that into perspective, only one club spent more money on salaries last season: The Red Sox at $120 million. And they somehow managed to fashion a pitching staff and bench out of that extra $1 million dollars. I am typically one of the last people to rag on the Yankees for spending money because nothing in the MLB bylaws prohibits their practices. They use brute financial force to build superior teams, while the Oaklands and Minnesotas of the baseball world must use a little financial finesse. And if the Yankees are willing to pay, I’m willing to watch them lose.

Projected lineup

CF – Damon

SS – Jeter

RF – Abreu

1B – Giambi

3B – Rodriguez

LF – Matsui

2B – Cano

C – Posada

DH – Cabrera

Defense

Who gives a shit.

Rotation

The Yankees added two arms to the rotation while removing two others this offseason, signing former Yankee Andy Pettitte and Japanese pitcher Kei Igawa. These two will replace Randy Johnson and Cory Lidle. **Editors note: I find it extraordinarily difficult to resist making a tasteless joke about Cory Lidle’s death right now. The first four in the Yankees rotation are fairly set:

Mussina

Pettitte

Wang

Igawa

Mussina enjoyed a great season last year after falling on hard times in 04 and 05. His 35 walks allowed were the fewest of his major league career as a full time starter. I don’t expect him to reproduce the 3.51 ERA in that division, but there is some gas left in the tank.

Andy Pettitte returns to the city where he made a name for himself, winning 4 world championships in five years. He enjoyed tremendous success during his three years in Houston. Despite a difficult start to last season, Pettitte finished with a 4.2 ERA and 178 strikeouts, just shy of his career high of 180.

Chien-Ming Wang has an unfortunate last name.

Igawa is a lefthander and probably isn’t worth the money the Yankees are paying him (20 mil plus 25 posting for 5 years). This struck me as one of those deals where they just couldn’t let the Red Sox be the only team acquiring Japanese pitchers. Lefty with 88-91 mph four seamer, changeup and slider. Could be good, could be a mental midget.

Carl Pavano signed with the Yanks after the 04 season for 39 mil over four years. So far, in two seasons, he has made 17 starts, and only seven of those have come since injuring his shoulder in June of 05. While it’s not uncommon for the Yankees to pay $20 million and get nothing in return (Jason Giambi’s 04 campaign comes to mind), it’s about damn time they get some return on this Pavano investment.

Other potential starters are Humberto Sanches or Philip Hughes.

Bullpen

Everybody knows about Rivera. The role of the rest of the guys in the bullpen is to not fuck it up between the starters and rivera (or when the starters have been handed 48 run leads). Rest of the pen should include Kyle Farnsworth, Scott Proctor, Mike Myers, Luis Viscaino, and spring training invites.

In the Pipeline

Philip Hughes (RHP) is considered by many to be one of the top pitching prospects in the minors along with Homer Bailey of the Reds. Mid 90’s fastball, curveball and slider. 4:1 K/BB and 10.7 (!) K/9 at AA last year, posting a 2.25 era in 21 starts. He’s good enough to pitch for the Yankees by midseason, but they have no real reason to rush him right now.

Jose Tabata (OF) is really young, but PECOTA loves him. .298/.377/.420 last season at single-A. could sports a .300/.385/.450 line in the majors.

Humberto Sanchez (RHP) came over from Detroit in the Sheffield trade. Could be a starter, could be a closer, but is definitely a power pitcher. Also has injury issues and has never pitched more than 123 innings.

Dellin Becances (RHP)

Dude is 6’8. He is real young (high school pitcher drafted this season), but posted a 1.16 ERA at rookie ball this year.

Joba Chamberlain (RHP)

First rounder out of Nebraska has a mid 90’s fastball and plus slider, but hasn’t played minor league ball yet. Many scouts are impressed, but we know what that can mean.

If even half of these pitchers turn out, the Yankees could push 120 wins in the near future.

Previous Audits:
Detroit Tigers
Boston Red Sox
Texas Rangers
Kansas City Royals
Pittsburgh Pirates
Florida Marlins
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
Baltimore Orioles
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Arizona Diamondbacks

Detroit Tigers 2007 Audit

Detroit Tigers 2007 Projections

89-73 record
847 runs scored – 707 runs allowed
chances of making postseason – 45%


Overview:

This just happens to be my first audit and I have to say that I’m somewhat nervous about how this turns out. This year, I don’t know if I have really as much inside information as I could have in years past, mostly because this team has drawn a few raised eyebrows since their fantastical run to the World Series last year…people are once again starting to pay attention to the Olde English D.
This is a club that made a few moves in the offseason, but for the most part, is returning the nucleus of a team that continued to shock and surprise baseball observers throughout the 2006 season. Needless to say, I don’t think this team needs much introduction.


The Lineup:

I can’t say I hate the Tigers lineup offensively, though they still have the same issues they had last year (free swinging, no humongous bat in the middle, awful OBP). They’ve upgraded a bit since the end of 2006, but nevertheless, I can’t imagine this lineup making opposing number #1 pitchers worry too much (unless that pitcher’s name is Gil Meche).

Catcher – Pudge Rodriguez continues to play a tough and physically demanding position at a high level into his late 30s. Though he doesn’t hit for much power anymore, Pudge still tends to hit for a high average (.300 or better consistently) thanks to his line drive swing and above average speed for a backstop. He threw out baserunners at an amazing rate last year, and that is made more impressive when you realize that only the best baserunners in baseball even attempted to steal bases against him. The tradeoff here is that this free-swinging Latino NEVER walks, making him mind-numbingly frustrating to watch when he’s ahead in the count 2-0 or 3-1. I could see a .290/.320/.420 line being reasonable for Pudge this season. Backing up Pudge is Vance Wilson, who probably ranks in the top 10 in the league for backup catchers when you think about a combination of defense and offense. When he plays he hits for power, but again, NEVER walks, and he’s not even a Latin.

First Base – I like Chris Shelton a lot. We all know the story by now…the young Rule 5 Draft pick that turned out to be a valuable commodity. A 26 year old with gap-to-gap power who hits a ton of doubles and walks frequently when he’s right, Shelton exploded for 8 homers in the first 11 games of the 2006 season. You could really attribute the Tigers 2006 season mostly to Shelton, who carried the team offensively for almost 2 months. Matt Stairs is a wonderful backup at first base. A lefty bat with some pop and a great eye, Stairs isn’t a great fielder, but I like what he does at the plate…wait…what…We re-signed Sean Casey and didn’t re-sign Matt Stairs??? Ok kill me…I give up on first base…

Second Base – I can’t say anything bad about Placido Polanco…oh wait, yes I can…another wonderful Latino who never, EVER takes a pitch on a 3-1 count. Other than that, I really actually like Polanco, especially because of how the Tigers obtained him. For those who don’t remember, the Tigs fell into Polanco when they traded the now-incarcerated Ugueth Urbina to the Phillies. The Phillies missed the playoffs (as usual) and the Tigers ended up with their starting 2nd baseman. He was slowed during the last few months of 2006 with a separated shoulder but returned to have a wonderful postseason. I have to give him a little credit, he swings at a TON of pitches, but it’s rare that he strikes out (only 27 times all last season), which can be appreciated in the circumstances in which it matters. Expect something near .300/.340/.420 again.

Third Base – Brandon Inge is getting older (he’ll be 30 in March) and it’s safe to say that last year will be his career best at the plate. He busted out for 27 Dunn-bombs and managed to post an OBP almost 70 points higher than his average (which beats out everyone else on the roster in that department, save for Guillen). Don’t count on 27 homers again, but I could see 20 dongs with a .750 OPS and some improved defense, though that’s tough for a guy who gets to near every ball on the left side of the infield.

Shortstop – The runaway MVP of the Tigers last year was Carlos Guillen. You can’t really say enough for a guy that led AL Shortstops in OPS in 2006 (I think). He hit .320, had an OBP of .400, and hits for power down the lines and into the gaps. He’ll be 32 years old at season’s end and is probably nearing the end of his production rope, but Tigers fans are hoping he’ll continue tearing up opposing pitchers in 2007. One point of contention, Guillen’s defense at short isn’t as wonderful as it was when he first arrived from Seattle, and moving him to first base might be in the cards. Anything that gets Sean Casey out of the lineup would make me giddy. Oh, and Guillen should really quit switch-hitting if you ask me, but that’s mostly because he rakes from the left side. Expect a combined line of .305/.385/.490 if he’s healthy.

Outfield – The starting outfield stays the same into 2007 (just like all of the infield positions). Craig Monroe/Marcus Thames will split left field duties, neither of which plays phenomenal defense, but Monroe can definitely throw. Those two give the lineup a nice bit of power from a 7 or 8 spot, but like their teammates, they have trouble finding ways to get on base consistently. Thames’ .549 SLG last year was unexpected, but definitely needed. Monroe will play more often and get rewarded for his “clutch” (using the term loosely/sarcastically) hitting with a .260/.300/.460 type line.
Center field gets Curtis Granderson back, but only for another few years until Cameron Maybin is ready to take over. I like Granderson’s game a ton. He can hit for plenty of power for a smaller guy, plus he plays a terrific defensive outfield. On the plus side, he’s only 26 years old and has lots of time left as a Tiger, but on the negative, he strikes out a bit too much for my taste. I usually don’t hold strikeouts against guys who make up for it with tons of slugging and plate discipline (i.e. Adam Dunn), but Granderson doesn’t slug or walk enough to make up for his 170+ strikeouts. He’s an ideal leadoff hitter if he can control his strikeout rate. I see Granderson at .280/.350/.450 this year, a bit of an improvement since last year was his first full year in the league.
Right field returns Magglio Ordonez (who still is my pick to click). Another season and another year with those jagged rocks he calls knees. This guy is 33 years old, clearly past his prime, and is still owed gobs and gobs of money. Not that I don’t like Ordonez, because I do, but I can’t stand the idea that he’s making $15 million per year while working on the presumption that his knees could give out for good at any time. A lot of people give him credit for producing runs last year, which he did do well (104 RBI), but we all know that it’s a counting stat and not a real indicator of true production. His .820 OPS isn’t worth $15 million per year, but Gil Meche isn’t near worth $11 million per year, so I’ll live. I can see Ordonez going .290/.340/.460 in 150 healthy games, or .290/.340/.380 in 50 injury-riddled games.

Designated Hitter – The only real change from last year comes at the DH spot. Grandpa Sheffield takes over at age 38, coming off of a year in New York where he missed significant time due to a rough wrist injury (though you could argue it was a terrible fluke of an injury). If he stays healthy and plays like the Sheffield we all know and hate, he can be a major contributor in the middle of the Tigers lineup this year. I hate the fact that he’s not left handed…this team still needs a solid power hitting lefty to throw in the mix. With as little as I like Sheff-Dawg, I have to give him credit for having a great eye at the plate and keeping his strikeout to walk ratio in check year after year. If he goes .290/.380/.520, I’ll wet myself.


The Batting Order:

Jimmy Leyland has talked about this since the Sheffield trade, and I see it shaking out like this on most evenings –
1) Curtis Granderson
2) Placido Polanco
3) Carlos Guillen
4) Gary Sheffield
5) Magglio Ordonez
6) Pudge Rodriguez
7) Sean Casey
8) Craig Monroe
9) Brandon Inge


The Pitching:

Starting Rotation – The Tigers return all 4 of their playoff starters from 2006 for 2007. The problem with that is that people cannot be expecting this quartet to repeat its 2006 performances. Jeremy Bonderman (still only 24 years old) will most likely fall into the #1 starter’s role again this year after a fine 2006 that saw him strike out almost 9 batters per 9 innings and have a better than average 3.5/1 strikeout to walk ratio. Expect better strike out totals from Bonderman in 2007 due to the addition of a third pitch to his repertoire, most likely a change-up. Since Leyland loves the whole righty-lefty thing, expect the Gambler, Kenny Rogers, to fall into the #2 spot. Rogers wasn’t phenomenal last season by any means, but take into account that he’s 42 years old and pitched something like a billion straight scoreless innings in the playoffs, I’ll put up with him for another season at $8 million if he can post similar numbers to last year. He didn’t make it to 100 strikeouts for the season, and he walked 62 batters, but he tends not to take chances with the batters he knows can do major damage. The Tigs return Verlander to the #3 spot, and I don’t think I have to say much here. He’s 23 and only getting better, so expect him to be able to spot his fastball better and use his hammer curve more in hitter’s counts than he did last year. He’ll never be able to really throw his knuklecurve due to blistering problems, but no worries, his overhand 12-6 curve is sick too. The fourth and fifth spots will be taken by lefty Nate Robertson and a 5th starter to be named later…probably Mike Maroth, though I wish it could be Wil Ledezma. Don’t expect Maroth to do any better than a 4.5 ERA with 30 homers and 110 strikeouts. Ledezma would be the better choice since he’s just got better pure stuff and the fact that he’s learned how to control it, but I think Leyland feels bad for leaving Maroth out in the cold last year after his injury.

The Bullpen – This should be a strength for the Tigers again in 2007, but with all pitching, it really can be a crapshoot. Expect to see the same bullpen from 2006 with one small addition, Jose Mesa. Mesa is 142 years old now and has been pitching for 141 years, but his arm is still attached to the rest of his body somehow. I can see him pitching some decently leveraged innings on nights when guitar hero Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney might not be available. One of the biggest manager mishaps in 2006 was the continued use of Todd Jones in the closer’s role, but don’t expect that to change in 2007 unless a miraculous injury befalls Jones. On another note, lefty Rule 5 pickup Ed Campusano (through trade from Milwaukee) should make the big league club out of spring training and stick with it throughout the year as a LOOGY, taking the place of Jamie Walker who is somehow getting paid more than peanuts. I’ll be watching Campusano closely, as I’ve already heard lots about the young lefty with better than average velocity and 3 already-developed pitches. Oh yeah, rounding out the rest of the spots, expect Jason Grilli, Wil Ledezma, and Roman Colon to make the club, provided Colon is healthy (if not, expect Zach Miner to take his place).


The Prospects:

This is where things get interesting for the Tigers. One could argue that the Tigers farm system isn’t very good anymore, save for the first two guys on this list. For those who argue that, I would agree with them. The Tigers traded away their previous number #3 prospect in Humberto Sanchez and their only catching prospect for Neifi Perez. Anyways, here’s how I see the Tigers top 4 prospects (beyond that isn’t worth mentioning) –

1) Cameron Maybin à 19 years old, CF
Maybin is absolutely fantastic in any way possible. I bet the guy is even better at guitar hero than Joel Zumaya. Anyways, the 19-year old Maybin has all 5 tools that scouts look for when evaluating a player, and not to mention, the guy puts up phenomenal numbers. In his first full season in pro ball, Maybin killed low-A Midwest League pitching to the tune of .304/.387/.457 at a severe pitcher’s home park. He’s still 19, but has decent plate discipline for a player of his age. I saw him play once this season and was more than impressed by his physical abilities, and I fully expect him to hit the weight room this off-season leading to better power numbers by season’s end. He’ll start the season at High-A Lakeland, which will hurt his power, but I can’t imagine him staying there all year. Expect him to be with AA-Erie before July slugging the ever-loving pee out of the ball.

2) Andrew Miller à 21 years old, SP
Miller is a big lanky lefty in the same vein as guys like Randy Johnson (yay!) and Ryan Anderson (boo!). Hopefully for Tigers fans, Miller will be more like the first guy than the second. Drafted in the first round at pick number 6 or 7 I believe, Miller scared off plenty of teams before the Tigers decided on him due to the fact that his agent is huge asshole Scott Boras. A major league deal was all it took to land Miller and keep him in Detroit through at least his age 25 season, which I can’t say I dislike. Miller showed flashes of brilliance as a member of the Tigers 40-man roster in 2006, but also showed that he’s not yet ready for big league ball. Expect this flamethrower to start at High A-Lakeland and quickly make his way through A and AA ball all the way to AAA-Toledo by season’s end.

3) Jair Jurrjens à 21 years old, SP
Our friends at Baseball Prospectus have the sneaky Gorkys Hernandez at this spot, which is understandable, but I rank Jurrjens higher due to the fact that the Tigers saw fit to keep this kid in their system when team after team was looking for him as a throw-in during trade deadline deals. Jurrjens went through High-A Lakeland with no trouble, posting a 2.08 ERA 74 IP and posting a deliciously wonderful 6/1 strikeout to walk ratio. He moved up to AA-Erie at midseason and was respectable to say the least. He could be trade bait down the line if the Tigers find they can’t make room for him on the big club in 3 years, but expect him to at least replace the non-strike throwing Zach Miner in long relief by 2008.

4) Gorkys Hernandez à 19 years old, CF
The first thing that jumps out to me about Hernandez is that he’s 19, just like Cameron Maybin, and he’s a center fielder, again like Maybin. If this kid progresses at the same rate as Maybin, don’t expect him to stay a center fielder. The hope in the organization, from what I hear, is that he can bulk up and move to one of the corner outfield positions. A lot of people on the prospect trail and talking of a Hernandez/Maybin/Clevlen outfield in 3 or 4 years, but don’t expect Clevlen to make much of an impact. Hernandez put up ridiculous numbers at rookie ball last year, showing us a line of .327/.356/.463. Hernandez is going to be one of those cases where you hope a guy can learn some plate discipline in his time in the minors, but looking at the rest of the Tigers prospects, I don’t think it’s going to happen.


That’s it for now, kiddies. I just saw Nelson Cruz flying around the bases for the Dominican league team in the Caribbean Series…too bad for the Crew on that one, eh?

Previous Audits:
Boston Red Sox
Texas Rangers
Kansas City Royals
Pittsburgh Pirates
Florida Marlins
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
Baltimore Orioles
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Arizona Diamondbacks

Boston Red Sox 2007 Audit (Courtesy of Condescendy)

2007 Projections:

93 – 69, 2nd Place AL East

849 runs scored – 751 runs allowed

Chances of making postseason: 57%

Overview:

For the past month, I’ve peppered you with long audits of middling teams designed to introduce the average fan to information that is generally not easily accessible. Let’s get one thing straight. This review will not take that form. If you have a TV, radio, internet, ears, eyes or any other sensory organs, you’ve been introduced to at least 15 players on this team. No one needs me to describe Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, or Curt Schilling in detail. To be honest, no one is going to read a long audit on the Red Sox. ESPN is an entire media outlet dedicated to describing the Rex Sox. People get plenty of the Red Sox, and chances are if you’re not from New York or one of the six New England states, you’ve had enough. So, what I’ll do instead is analyze what people want to know: will the Red Sox win the AL East? In my opinion, no, they won’t. Why? Because, like the last 90 years, they just don’t have quite as much as the Yankees. In fact, the Blue Jays really should be considered in this discussion. I’ll let Bru discuss the Blue Jays and The Bub discuss the Yankees.

The Red Sox scored fewer runs than they allowed last year. Though they have made massive improvements to the team - probably more than any other team this winter - catching the Yankees is no small task. The Yankees scored an outstanding 163 more runs than they allowed in 2007. Not to mention the Yankees have one very important piece that the Red Sox don’t: Philip Hughes. I’ll leave that topic to The Bub. At this point, the Red Sox project to come up a hair short. But, it’s important to note that when you’re dealing with teams as old and aggressive in the market as the Yankees and Red Sox, there is no telling who will be on the field in April, not to mention September.

The Lineup:

There are a lot of patient hitters and a decent amount of power in this lineup. I am a little worried about health and depth, but that’s just nitpicking.

Catcher – Jason Varitek had an awful year by his standards in 2006. His OPS dropped well over 100 points as he battled injury and ineffectiveness. The disturbing thing is that this was the second year in a row that his numbers dropped substantially. According to others, he took steroids. In my opinion, he’s just a 34-year-old catcher whose body is beginning to betray him. I expect about a .775 OPS out of Varitek in 2007. He presumably will be healthier. Backing up Varitek is Doug Mirabelli, whose sole reason for being in the Major League is to catch Tim Wakefield. A more intriguing option would be George Kottaras, a youngster with discipline and good OBP skills. Kottaras probably won’t see much time, though.

Designated Hitter/First Base – Now that it’s settled that the Red Sox will not acquire Todd Helton, it looks set that Kevin Youkilis will start at first base. Youkilis still works the count and draws walks as well as anyone around. But he has very little power and rates at best an average first baseman. David Ortiz is the DH. He’s really good. Last year was the best year of his career. Expect more great things from him, obviously.

Second Base – 23-year-old Dustin Pedroia looks like he will get a fulltime gig. He’s straight out of the Youkilis mold. He’s a very smart hitter that doesn’t swing at balls and draws more than his fair share of walks. He’s a rookie this year, so he’s unproven. But a plate approach like his translates to the Majors well. He has no power, though, and I doubt he’ll post an .800 OPS. He struggled severely in a cup of coffee last summer.

Shortstop – The Red Sox signed Julio Lugo to play shortstop. Lugo was a necessary addition to this team. He’s generally underrated. His plate approach and defense are very good, and he has excellent speed. Like his fellow infielders, he doesn’t have a lot of power. But a .350 OBP, good defense and speed out of a shortstop is nothing to complain about. Alex Cora will back up both middle infield positions. Like the others, Cora brings defense and a decent enough plate approach. He’s not a good hitter, and the Red Sox are in trouble if Pedroia struggles. By that I mean the Red Sox will trade for an overpriced player if Pedroia struggles. That’s good news for the Brewers, who are sitting on 6 middle infielders.

Third Base – Mike Lowell rebounded nicely last year. He’s a solid player capable of posting an .850 OPS but more likely to post an .800 OPS. He’s about league average, which I guess isn’t good enough given the Red Sox’s circumstances. Lowell also walks almost as much as he strikes out. This infield is going to have a nifty BB:K. Eric Hinske will back up both Lowell and Youkilis on the corners. He’s got a little more raw power than the other two, but he’s nothing more than a backup any more.

Outfield – Manny Ramirez is a future hall of famer, unless the writers decide that they have a moral objection to his character. He’s still consistently posting .400 OBP’s and .600 SLG%. He’s the best left fielder in the American League, unless you consider defense substantially in the equation. He’s probably the worst defensive left fielder in the AL. Fortunately, LF in Fenway isn’t too hard to play. For all of the banter about Manny, he finds a way to stay in the lineup and accumulate stats. He’s really good.

The Coco Crisp experiment didn’t work out all that well for the Red Sox last year. Crisp plays fine defense in center and is a good baserunner. Beyond that, I’m not sure if he’ll ever be enough for the Sox. He doesn’t have very good OBP skills, and I really don’t see him ever hitting for power considering his frame. Like so many other Red Sox, he’s about league average.

J.D. Drew has never been able to stay healthy. Still he’s a very good hitter, and his signing was a necessary risk for the Red Sox to take. Will he get 500 AB? Probably not. Will he post a .900+ OPS? Probably. Luckily for the Sox, they have Bill Mo Pena backing up Drew and Ramirez. Pena is still a huge wild card in the Red Sox playoff equation. I doubt he’s ever going to evolve out of the 2-Truest-Outcome-Jesse-Barfield-homer-or-strikeout mold. That was a long adjective, yet very descriptive. He swings hard to either hit a home run or strike out. There isn’t much plate discipline, which is still holding him back severely. He just turned 25, so I guess there’s still time for change. But, at this point it’s doubtful that he is a superior hitter in 2007. Most importantly, Pena can spot Drew against lefties and maybe keep him healthier. Pena still pounds lefties.

In total, the Red Sox have three well above average hitters and a bunch of adequate players at the other positions. That’s a recipe for pretty good offensive success. If Drew would stay healthy, which he won’t, they would keep up offensively with the Yankees.

The Pitching:

The Red Sox have invested an awful lot in this rotation. It’s a good rotation. Unfortunately, the bullpen is a huge question mark, which could be the ultimate reason they don’t make the playoffs.

Starting Pitching – Curt Schilling is the ace of the staff for now. He had over a 6:1 K:BB last year. He’s 40 years old. That could be a problem as the season goes on. He’s injury prone, for sure. But he’s also capable of posting a 3.50 ERA, which in the AL in 2007 makes him outstanding.

The ERA projections for Daisuke Matsusaka vary widely. He was unanimously considered the top pitcher in Japan. I have pretty high expectations for Matsusaka. Japanese pitchers in their first year in North America tend to excel. I’ve seen some clips of him pitching, and he’s pretty impressive. I’m anticipating about a 3.60 ERA. Last year, Josh Beckett proved that a 3 ERA in the NL is awfully close to a 5 ERA in the AL. His BB and K rates took a hit, but what really hurt was the 36 home runs he allowed in 204.2 innings. I don’t know what to expect from him in 2007. Something like a 4.60 ERA seems probable.

Jonathan Papelbon is going to try his luck in the rotation this season. It is a risky move for the Sox considering how dominating Papelbon was out of the pen. A 0.92 ERA, 75K and 13 BB in 68.1 innings isn’t too bad, is it? Papelbon came up as a starter, so the transition might be smoother than people think. But I don’t think he’ll do nearly as well as he did last year. I’m also concerned about the shoulder problems that ended his season short last year. Though he rumored to be all better, a “tired shoulder” isn’t something with which I’d be comfortable. He worked an awful lot last year, and I don’t know if he was ready for such an increase. Teams need to be conservative with their rookies. The MLB season is a lot longer than MiLB, college or high school seasons.

Tim Wakefield rounds out the rotation. People really like Wakefield. I think all knuckleballers are overrated. He’s a 4.50 ERA guy who is 40 years old and declining. John Lester is the 6^th starter. The most important news about Lester is that he doesn’t have cancer. He still just 22, and he has good enough stuff. He could be better than Wakefield and Beckett right now. He’s a very important member of this team, and his progression from a below average pitcher in 2006 will be a vital element of the Red Sox’s success or failure. Sixth starters can expect to get about 28 starts a year, especially in this particular rotation. Matt Clement is out for most of 2007, and he’s terrible.

The Bullpen – No one really knows who will close for the Red Sox. Right now it looks like Joel Pineiro is the favorite. Pineiro had a miserable time in Seattle last year, leading to his release. I can’t really see him sticking in the closer role for long. He’s just not very good. But maybe his struggles were a result of him being a reliever stuck in a starting role. That’s what the Sox are banking on. I’ve give Pineiro a look in fantasy leagues, but don’t expect him to be anywhere near as effective as Papelbon was. The Sox won’t have patience with him if he struggles. A darkhorse candidate to close is Craig Hansen. Hansen was a first round pick in 2005 who was on the now common college closer – quickly to MLB track. But, Hansen struggled in Triple-A and with the Sox last year. He still has the highest ceiling of any reliever on the team. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was the closer by June, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if he were in the minor leagues at that point. Another darkhorse candidate is Manny Delcarmen, who is young and has a good track record in the minors. He probably won’t get a lot of high leverage innings, but he’s probably better equipped for them than the rest of the relievers. Hansen and Delcarmen are major components of this team’s success. They’re going to have to progress and impress.

The Sox have a number of setup guys with experience. Most aren’t very good. Mike Timlin is the probable heir to Pineiro’s closer seat should Pineiro struggle. Timlin will be 41 this year, and last year may have been the worst of his career. That’s usually a sign that a guy is over the hill. Timlin isn’t very good any more. Neither are Julian Tavarez and J.C. Romero. That leaves recent Japanese signee Hideki Okajima, Brendan Donnelly, and a bunch of journeymen relievers. Okajima figures to be a setup guy/lefty specialist. His in his first year in the states, so he’ll be fine. Donnelly may be the best pitcher in the pen. He’s a mid-3’s ERA kind of guy. Who knows who else the Sox will employ in the pen. I expect some additions both during and before the 2007 season. I just cannot see the Red Sox intrusting games into this current bunch, especially Pineiro.

Future Outlook:

Though the Sox probably aren’t favorites to win the AL East, they should be favorites to win the Wild Card. The Sox looked like they have already passed their peak as an organization, but this offseason proved that they aren’t going to go down easily. If the farm system isn’t producing enough, the Red Sox are going to spend until they can compete with the Yankees.

The Farm System:

The Sox system isn’t quite what it was a couple years ago, but it is quickly rebuilding. There are about 8 guys that have been drafted in the first two rounds of the last two drafts. The Red Sox always get a ton of top draft picks. Between Michael Bowden, Daniel Bard, Jason Place, Justin Masterson, and Kris Johnson, I don’t know which ones will take the next step. They all have a lot of talent. The Red Sox system is about average because of the depth, but it’s not particularly strong at the top.

1) Clay Buchholtz – SP, 22. Buchholtz was a first round pick in 2005, but he’s stood out amongst all of the other early picks. In 103 Low-A innings, he had a 2.62 ERA, 29 BB, and 117 K. In High-A, he had a 1.13 ERA, 4 BB, and 23 K in 16 innings. He has 3 pitches and mid-90’s heat. Everything is there: young enough, healthy enough, 3 pitches, good stuff, and good stats. Can’t ask for much more.

2) Jacob Ellsbury – 23, CF. Many consider Ellsbury to be the top prospect in the system. In my opinion, his ceiling is far too low to be considered the top prospect. Like Buchholtz, he was a first round selection in 2005. Ellsbury is fast. He’s a very good base runner. He’s a good center fielder. He has a good approach at the plate. But, he has no power and really doesn’t figure to add any. His ceiling is Johnny Damon, who is a fine player who has had a good career. But, he’s probably not going to be that good, as most people don’t reach their ceilings. There isn’t much room between Johnny Damon and a run-of-the-mill, Juan Pierre type. Ellsbury will start the year in the high minors, but he could see Boston by the end of the year. He’ll likely have a career in the Majors, but it doesn’t project to be a great one.

3) Dustin Pedroia – Discussed above.

4) Just a ton of guys that were recently drafted.

Previous Audits:

Texas Rangers

Kansas City Royals

Pittsburgh Pirates

Florida Marlins

Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
Baltimore Orioles
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Arizona Diamondbacks