Washington Nationals 2007 Audit
2007 Projections:
61-101 5th Place NL East
668 runs scored – 871 runs allowed
Chances of making postseason: 2%
Overview:
The Nationals are in bad shape. They may simultaneously have the worst pitching, hitting, and farm system in the National League. Remember that the National League is significantly worse than the American League. Needless to say, the Nationals could not be in worse shape. But, at least they’re in rebuilding mode. They are not burdened by long-term contracts. Furthermore, Jim Bowden, previously the laughing stock of Major League Baseball, has pulled off a couple of fantastic trades in the past year. He’s brought in Alfanso Soriano, Felipe Lopez, Austin Kearns and a couple of youngsters from Seattle while dumping liabilities like Jose Vidro and Livan Hernandez. But, for all the credit Bowden deserves for those trades, he deserves harsh criticism for his inability to get much of a return on Alfanso Soriano last year. Though the Nats will get a supplemental first round pick and an additional second round pick in the 2007 draft from Soriano’s offseason departure, the Nats should have gotten more. The Nats have replaced manager Frank Robinson with Manny Acta. But, Bowden is the real problem. He is not a good GM, and the Nats’ first step towards contention will be replacing Bowden.
The Lineup:
The offense is not good. At least most of the hitters are under the age of 30 and the defense won’t be too bad. There isn’t too much to say about any of their hitters. Their best two or five hitters are extremely injury prone, and the lineup has absolutely no depth.
Catcher – Brian Schneider will get the majority of at-bats at catcher. He has very little value offensively, though I’d expect some improvement over his .649 OPS from last year. Because of defense, though, Schneider is an average catcher. Robert Fick should serve as the primary backup. Fick is hilarious because of his temper and probable extreme racism. But, he’s not much of a baseball player. The Nats will also try Rule Five player Jesus Flores for a few games at catcher. Flores is a 22-year-old that has no AB’s above Single-A. He hit 21 home runs in High-A, but he also had a 28/127 BB/K ratio in 429 AB. He’s not ready for the Major Leagues and is only there to sit for the rest of the season.
First Base – Nick Johnson is the Nationals’ best hitter. Unfortunately, he is one of the most injury-prone players in the game. For the first time in his career, Johnson had 500 AB last year. As soon as he reached 500, though, he broke his leg. He’s had screws and other metal inserted into his leg and should be ready for 2007. But, you have to assume he’ll get hurt again. He has every single year of his six-year career. Still, he has a .395 career OBP and had a .948 OPS last year. He’s an excellent hitter. If he misses a lot of 2007, the Nats figure to lose 100 or more games. When Johnson goes down, busted former prospect Larry Broadway will take over at first. Broadway is 3 years removed from being a top prospect, but I suppose he has potential.
Second Base – Felipe Lopez will start at second base now that Jose Vidro has been wisely dumped. Lopez was a huge liability defensively at shortstop, and I don’t know what to expect from him defensively at 2B. Lopez is an above-average hitter for a middle infielder. I expect about a .760 OPS from him in 2007. While I doubt he’ll reach the 23 HR he hit in 2005 or the 44 SB he had in 2006, Lopez is still just 26 and has potential.
Shortstop – Christian Guzman is back! Guzman missed all of 2006 with a bum shoulder. Guzman is good but not great defensively. Offensively, he is a nightmare – probably the funniest hitter to watch in baseball. On the plus side, he should improve on the .574 OPS he accomplished in 2005. Guzman will lose playing time as the season progresses because, well, he’s awful. The Nats don’t have anyone good to back him up, though.
Third Base – The Nats pride and joy right now is Ryan Zimmerman, who had a strong rookie season in 2006. Zimmerman is probably the best defensive 3B in the NL. I was surprised by his .822 OPS because he had almost no minor league experience and was considered more of a defensive player. Zimmerman is a good all around player. He has enough plate patience and power to hit like a third baseman. He’s still just 22 years old and will continue to improve.
Outfield – The Nationals outfield is loaded with prospects that never really reached their potential. Right fielder Austin Kearns is the team’s best hitter after Nick Johnson. But like Johnson, Kearns is extremely injury prone. Kearns has exceptional plate discipline and good power. He had career highs in just about everything in 2006, including a career high 537 AB. His highest total before 2006 had been 387 AB. Kearns is still just 26 years old and had an .850 OPS last year.
In left, the Nats will play Ryan Church. Church was a pretty good prospect in 2004 after posting a 1.048 OPS in Triple-A. Church is a lot like Kearns. He’s 28 now and has battled constant injuries. Church only had 194 AB in 2006. Even though he struck out 60 times, he maintained an .892 OPS. At the very least, Church and Austin Kearns have potential to be above average if they stay healthy. Backing up the corner outfielders will be two more prospects that haven’t panned out. Michael Restovich is built like a truck, but he hasn’t been a prospect since 2002 and has done nothing worth mentioning in the Major Leagues. The other corner bat is Chris Snelling, who was acquired in the great fleecing of the Mariners this winter. Snelling doesn’t have a ton of power, but he has outstanding OBP skills. If healthy, he will be one of the best backup outfielders in the NL. Unfortunately, Snelling is even more injury prone than Church and Kearns. Snelling’s knees are hanging by threads. Between Church, Kearns, and Snelling, hopefully two will be healthy at all times. If they aren’t, the Nationals are in a world of hurt.
In center, the Nats will use another busted prospect, Alex Escobar. Surprise, surprise, Escobar’s career was derailed by injuries, including a torn labrum and hamstring problems last year. He’s only seen about 200 professional AB since 2004. He’s not a bad player, and I think the Nats should give him a shot. But I don’t expect him to be healthy, and he’s certainly not a star. Backing up Escobar is Nook Logan, who is a terrible player. That’s all I need to say.
The Nationals offense could be about average if everyone stays healthy. The problem is that this is the most injury prone roster I’ve ever seen. The Nats don’t have depth, and there is the potential that we’ll see some historically awful lineups on the field by mid-season.
The Pitching:
Starting Pitching – The starting pitching is probably the worst in the National League. The rotation is led by John Patterson, who is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Most people don’t know him because he’s been injured several times over the last three years. He’s a former first round pick who has the stuff of a first round ace. In 2005, he posted a 3.13 ERA and 65/185 BB/K ratio in 198.1 innings. Before an elbow injury ended his 2006 season, Patterson had a 9/42 ratio in 40.2 innings. If healthy, Patterson would be a Cy Young candidate on a different team. He’s a fantastic fantasy baseball sleeper. But his health is still a major concern.
The pitching after Patterson is simply terrible. Mike O’Connor is a 26-year-old who had a shaky rookie season in 2006. He was lucky to post a 4.80 ERA. O’Connor isn’t bad, but he still isn’t ready for the Majors. He jumped from High-A to Triple-A, pitched only 26 innings there, and was called up to the Majors in an emergency. Given his age, he’s well behind the development curve. Sadly, he is the team’s second best starter. Shawn Hill is still recovering from Tommy John surgery and really never was good. Have you ever seen this many injured players? Mike Hinckley is a strong candidate to be the worst pitcher in the National League in 2007. He was demoted to High-A last year and has struggled to post an ERA under 5 throughout his minor league career. How this guy is in the starting rotation is beyond me. Tim Redding never panned out in Houston and is now poised to fail in Washington. This rotation is terrible. From what I’m reading, the Nationals are pursuing just about every free agent pitcher left on the market. They could use four additional starters. Unfortunately for them, none of the free agents left on the market are very good. The Nats could use Jorge Sosa, Tomo Ohka, and Tony Armas Jr. But, even with all three, this rotation is still well below average.
The Bullpen – The bullpen is the strength of the team, but that’s not saying much. Closer Chad Cordero is one of the better closers in baseball. He’s had a very consistent run during his four year career. I have no criticism about him other than that his stuff isn’t all that dominating. But, he’s a smart pitcher and has never struggled. Luis Ayala missed all of the 2006 season with reconstructive elbow surgery. He’s a ground-ball specialist and excellent setup man. But the injury concerns me. Also setting up Cordero is Jon Rauch, a 6’11” monster with pretty good stuff. Perhaps the Nationals would be wise to try Rauch in the rotation. The remainder of the bullpen is up in the air, and a lot will depend on whom the Nationals end up signing in the next two months.
Future Outlook:
Not only do the Nationals have a poor team, they also have a very poor farm system. At this point, I’m inclined to say that they have the 30th best, a.k.a. the worst, farm system in baseball. The Nationals are a long way from contention, but have the assets to rebuild quickly. Like 2006, the Nats will have a couple extra picks in the early rounds of the 2007 draft. They have hired Mike Rizzo, former Diamondbacks scouting director, to oversee operations. Given Rizzo’s success in Arizona, I’m optimistic about a five-year rebuilding plan. Still, that’s a long time to wait. The Nationals will have some money to spend, but at this time, spending is foolish. They will get a new stadium soon enough and figure to be major players in the NL East…just not until 2010 at the earliest.
The Farm System:
The Nationals probably don’t have a single prospect that I’d say is in the top 150 prospects in baseball. But, they have had and will have some extra early draft picks and will continue to look at international talent.
1. Chris Marrero – Marrero was the Nationals’ first round choice last year. He is an 18 year old outfielder with a good amount of power. At this point, he doesn’t have many professional AB to judge.
2. Kory Casto – Casto is an outfielder who has no speed or defense skills and, at 25, is old for a minor leaguer. But, he has a great plate approach and good enough power. He hit 20 home runs and takes a ton of walks and not too many strikeouts.
3. Matt Chico – Chico doesn’t have too high of a ceiling, but he has a steady minor league track record and probably is deserving of a rotation spot in Washington. He’s certainly better than Mike Hinckley. He probably isn’t a top-10 prospect on many other teams, though.
Previous Audits:
Arizona Diamondbacks
61-101 5th Place NL East
668 runs scored – 871 runs allowed
Chances of making postseason: 2%
Overview:
The Nationals are in bad shape. They may simultaneously have the worst pitching, hitting, and farm system in the National League. Remember that the National League is significantly worse than the American League. Needless to say, the Nationals could not be in worse shape. But, at least they’re in rebuilding mode. They are not burdened by long-term contracts. Furthermore, Jim Bowden, previously the laughing stock of Major League Baseball, has pulled off a couple of fantastic trades in the past year. He’s brought in Alfanso Soriano, Felipe Lopez, Austin Kearns and a couple of youngsters from Seattle while dumping liabilities like Jose Vidro and Livan Hernandez. But, for all the credit Bowden deserves for those trades, he deserves harsh criticism for his inability to get much of a return on Alfanso Soriano last year. Though the Nats will get a supplemental first round pick and an additional second round pick in the 2007 draft from Soriano’s offseason departure, the Nats should have gotten more. The Nats have replaced manager Frank Robinson with Manny Acta. But, Bowden is the real problem. He is not a good GM, and the Nats’ first step towards contention will be replacing Bowden.
The Lineup:
The offense is not good. At least most of the hitters are under the age of 30 and the defense won’t be too bad. There isn’t too much to say about any of their hitters. Their best two or five hitters are extremely injury prone, and the lineup has absolutely no depth.
Catcher – Brian Schneider will get the majority of at-bats at catcher. He has very little value offensively, though I’d expect some improvement over his .649 OPS from last year. Because of defense, though, Schneider is an average catcher. Robert Fick should serve as the primary backup. Fick is hilarious because of his temper and probable extreme racism. But, he’s not much of a baseball player. The Nats will also try Rule Five player Jesus Flores for a few games at catcher. Flores is a 22-year-old that has no AB’s above Single-A. He hit 21 home runs in High-A, but he also had a 28/127 BB/K ratio in 429 AB. He’s not ready for the Major Leagues and is only there to sit for the rest of the season.
First Base – Nick Johnson is the Nationals’ best hitter. Unfortunately, he is one of the most injury-prone players in the game. For the first time in his career, Johnson had 500 AB last year. As soon as he reached 500, though, he broke his leg. He’s had screws and other metal inserted into his leg and should be ready for 2007. But, you have to assume he’ll get hurt again. He has every single year of his six-year career. Still, he has a .395 career OBP and had a .948 OPS last year. He’s an excellent hitter. If he misses a lot of 2007, the Nats figure to lose 100 or more games. When Johnson goes down, busted former prospect Larry Broadway will take over at first. Broadway is 3 years removed from being a top prospect, but I suppose he has potential.
Second Base – Felipe Lopez will start at second base now that Jose Vidro has been wisely dumped. Lopez was a huge liability defensively at shortstop, and I don’t know what to expect from him defensively at 2B. Lopez is an above-average hitter for a middle infielder. I expect about a .760 OPS from him in 2007. While I doubt he’ll reach the 23 HR he hit in 2005 or the 44 SB he had in 2006, Lopez is still just 26 and has potential.
Shortstop – Christian Guzman is back! Guzman missed all of 2006 with a bum shoulder. Guzman is good but not great defensively. Offensively, he is a nightmare – probably the funniest hitter to watch in baseball. On the plus side, he should improve on the .574 OPS he accomplished in 2005. Guzman will lose playing time as the season progresses because, well, he’s awful. The Nats don’t have anyone good to back him up, though.
Third Base – The Nats pride and joy right now is Ryan Zimmerman, who had a strong rookie season in 2006. Zimmerman is probably the best defensive 3B in the NL. I was surprised by his .822 OPS because he had almost no minor league experience and was considered more of a defensive player. Zimmerman is a good all around player. He has enough plate patience and power to hit like a third baseman. He’s still just 22 years old and will continue to improve.
Outfield – The Nationals outfield is loaded with prospects that never really reached their potential. Right fielder Austin Kearns is the team’s best hitter after Nick Johnson. But like Johnson, Kearns is extremely injury prone. Kearns has exceptional plate discipline and good power. He had career highs in just about everything in 2006, including a career high 537 AB. His highest total before 2006 had been 387 AB. Kearns is still just 26 years old and had an .850 OPS last year.
In left, the Nats will play Ryan Church. Church was a pretty good prospect in 2004 after posting a 1.048 OPS in Triple-A. Church is a lot like Kearns. He’s 28 now and has battled constant injuries. Church only had 194 AB in 2006. Even though he struck out 60 times, he maintained an .892 OPS. At the very least, Church and Austin Kearns have potential to be above average if they stay healthy. Backing up the corner outfielders will be two more prospects that haven’t panned out. Michael Restovich is built like a truck, but he hasn’t been a prospect since 2002 and has done nothing worth mentioning in the Major Leagues. The other corner bat is Chris Snelling, who was acquired in the great fleecing of the Mariners this winter. Snelling doesn’t have a ton of power, but he has outstanding OBP skills. If healthy, he will be one of the best backup outfielders in the NL. Unfortunately, Snelling is even more injury prone than Church and Kearns. Snelling’s knees are hanging by threads. Between Church, Kearns, and Snelling, hopefully two will be healthy at all times. If they aren’t, the Nationals are in a world of hurt.
In center, the Nats will use another busted prospect, Alex Escobar. Surprise, surprise, Escobar’s career was derailed by injuries, including a torn labrum and hamstring problems last year. He’s only seen about 200 professional AB since 2004. He’s not a bad player, and I think the Nats should give him a shot. But I don’t expect him to be healthy, and he’s certainly not a star. Backing up Escobar is Nook Logan, who is a terrible player. That’s all I need to say.
The Nationals offense could be about average if everyone stays healthy. The problem is that this is the most injury prone roster I’ve ever seen. The Nats don’t have depth, and there is the potential that we’ll see some historically awful lineups on the field by mid-season.
The Pitching:
Starting Pitching – The starting pitching is probably the worst in the National League. The rotation is led by John Patterson, who is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Most people don’t know him because he’s been injured several times over the last three years. He’s a former first round pick who has the stuff of a first round ace. In 2005, he posted a 3.13 ERA and 65/185 BB/K ratio in 198.1 innings. Before an elbow injury ended his 2006 season, Patterson had a 9/42 ratio in 40.2 innings. If healthy, Patterson would be a Cy Young candidate on a different team. He’s a fantastic fantasy baseball sleeper. But his health is still a major concern.
The pitching after Patterson is simply terrible. Mike O’Connor is a 26-year-old who had a shaky rookie season in 2006. He was lucky to post a 4.80 ERA. O’Connor isn’t bad, but he still isn’t ready for the Majors. He jumped from High-A to Triple-A, pitched only 26 innings there, and was called up to the Majors in an emergency. Given his age, he’s well behind the development curve. Sadly, he is the team’s second best starter. Shawn Hill is still recovering from Tommy John surgery and really never was good. Have you ever seen this many injured players? Mike Hinckley is a strong candidate to be the worst pitcher in the National League in 2007. He was demoted to High-A last year and has struggled to post an ERA under 5 throughout his minor league career. How this guy is in the starting rotation is beyond me. Tim Redding never panned out in Houston and is now poised to fail in Washington. This rotation is terrible. From what I’m reading, the Nationals are pursuing just about every free agent pitcher left on the market. They could use four additional starters. Unfortunately for them, none of the free agents left on the market are very good. The Nats could use Jorge Sosa, Tomo Ohka, and Tony Armas Jr. But, even with all three, this rotation is still well below average.
The Bullpen – The bullpen is the strength of the team, but that’s not saying much. Closer Chad Cordero is one of the better closers in baseball. He’s had a very consistent run during his four year career. I have no criticism about him other than that his stuff isn’t all that dominating. But, he’s a smart pitcher and has never struggled. Luis Ayala missed all of the 2006 season with reconstructive elbow surgery. He’s a ground-ball specialist and excellent setup man. But the injury concerns me. Also setting up Cordero is Jon Rauch, a 6’11” monster with pretty good stuff. Perhaps the Nationals would be wise to try Rauch in the rotation. The remainder of the bullpen is up in the air, and a lot will depend on whom the Nationals end up signing in the next two months.
Future Outlook:
Not only do the Nationals have a poor team, they also have a very poor farm system. At this point, I’m inclined to say that they have the 30th best, a.k.a. the worst, farm system in baseball. The Nationals are a long way from contention, but have the assets to rebuild quickly. Like 2006, the Nats will have a couple extra picks in the early rounds of the 2007 draft. They have hired Mike Rizzo, former Diamondbacks scouting director, to oversee operations. Given Rizzo’s success in Arizona, I’m optimistic about a five-year rebuilding plan. Still, that’s a long time to wait. The Nationals will have some money to spend, but at this time, spending is foolish. They will get a new stadium soon enough and figure to be major players in the NL East…just not until 2010 at the earliest.
The Farm System:
The Nationals probably don’t have a single prospect that I’d say is in the top 150 prospects in baseball. But, they have had and will have some extra early draft picks and will continue to look at international talent.
1. Chris Marrero – Marrero was the Nationals’ first round choice last year. He is an 18 year old outfielder with a good amount of power. At this point, he doesn’t have many professional AB to judge.
2. Kory Casto – Casto is an outfielder who has no speed or defense skills and, at 25, is old for a minor leaguer. But, he has a great plate approach and good enough power. He hit 20 home runs and takes a ton of walks and not too many strikeouts.
3. Matt Chico – Chico doesn’t have too high of a ceiling, but he has a steady minor league track record and probably is deserving of a rotation spot in Washington. He’s certainly better than Mike Hinckley. He probably isn’t a top-10 prospect on many other teams, though.
Previous Audits:
Arizona Diamondbacks
Labels: MLB Team Audits
posted by Condescendy @ 2:42 PM
3 comments
3 Comments:
Who are these fuckin guys?
holy shit, your description of Juan Guzman is hilarious. I look forward to watching some Nationals games this year.
Nice dispatch and this mail helped me alot in my college assignement. Gratefulness you seeking your information.
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