Prospect Analysis: Part 1, Pitchers

Because I could not get the previous link to work, I will have to do this post the old-fashioned way. For those interested in learning more about analyzing prospects, particularly the current Brewers prospects, I've prepared an informational/editorial piece. I hope you all take the time to read it, though it isn't too long by my standards. I think many of you would find it informative and worthwhile, and I'm sure there's a lot of stuff in it that could be discussed much further.

This will be a two-part series following up on the Brewers Top 20 Prospect post, the point of which is to put the newcomers to studying baseball on the right path; in other words, planting a seed with the ultimate goal being the organization of the most righteous Minor League Fantasy Baseball league of all time. I will dissect how I and the majority of “statheads” evaluate minor league talent. I will try to use only Brewers prospects for the demonstrations, as I know that is where the most interest is.

EVALUATING PITCHING PROSPECTS:
Pitching prospects are unbelievably unpredictable. Some pitchers get injured. Some have trouble making a jump to the majors. Others have all the tools in the world and one day wake up and simply cannot locate a pitch. Some guys have an unbelievable fastball and good curveball, but cannot make it in the Majors without a third pitch. Meanwhile, some guy that tops out at 89mph is posting a 3.25 ERA in the Majors. This is infuriating.

Because of the unpredictability of pitchers, it is often said, “you need 10 prospects to get a Major League pitcher.” Similarly, you’ll here “there is no such thing as a pitching prospect,” which you’ll see written as TINSTAAPP. To some extent, both of these statements are true. The odds of finding that diamond in the rough are not good. But, with the proper evaluation tools, you’ll be far more efficient at identifying the keepers from the losers.

CONSIDERATION 1: INJURY HISTORY
This is simple. If a pitcher has any sort of injury of being hurt, you have to drop him down your list. Of course, not all injuries are the same. By far, the worst injury a pitcher can suffer is a shoulder injury. Elbow injuries are bad, but reparable. Leg injuries can be problematic, but generally heal over time. Shoulder injuries are a death-nail to pitching prospects.
An example may help: Manny Parra was the Brewers top pitching prospect in 2004. He had pitched 73.1 superb innings between A+ and AA. Then, he complained of soreness in his upper arm. The Brewers shut him down for the rest of the season. In 2005, most people still had high hopes for Parra. I, of course, was skeptical. Parra threw 91 excellent innings in AA. Then, that nasty old arm soreness came back. Parra was shut down again. No one knows when he’ll see his first action of 2006.
Unless a pitcher’s injury occurred long ago and the pitcher clearly overcame it, be highly concerned of injuries to pitchers, especially shoulder injuries. This all applies to pitchers that have already been injured. A good analyst can identify a pitcher that is more likely to get injured than one that is not. Pitching mechanics are certainly useful to know, but that requires you seeing the pitcher and having a keen eye for that kind of thing. Equally important to mechanics is the pitcher’s usage history. A pitcher with a lot of innings under his belt is more likely to get hurt. Also, a pitcher with a history of too often throwing too many pitches in a game is more likely to get hurt. The most classic example is Mark Prior. Prior came from Southern California, where he pitched a lot of innings during his life. He then was rushed through the Cubs system, where Dusty Baker let him throw upwards of 125 pitches in at least a dozen or more games a year. He is hurt a lot now. Though we’ll never how much that usage caused Prior’s injury problems, we can say for certain that Prior’s injuries would be foreseeable given his usage.

CONSIDERATION 2: SIZE AND STUFF
The typical scout places too much emphasis on this. That’s not to say it isn’t important. It obviously is important. But, a guy with great stuff and no history of pitching success is an immediate red flag. Generally, there is very little correlation between a pitcher’s physical appearance and his stuff. The overemphasis on physical build is something that plagues old-school scouts. If a guy is lanky and figures to fill out, then assume he may add a MPH or two. But, it’s just not that important. Look at Roy Oswalt.
Stuff, on the other hand, is a major issue. But, what does stuff mean? Teams get excited over pitchers with get velocity, thinking that they cannot teach velocity so this pitcher somehow has a ceiling much higher than the competition. While having great velocity is certainly a virtue, there are two more virtues to pitching: location and movement. A good pitching prospect will have 3 or more pitches that he throws effectively. Learning and mastering pitches is not easy for a pitcher. A guy without a third pitch is going to hit a roadblock in his development or, alternatively, be forced to move to the bullpen. It goes without saying that having the ability to locate a pitch is mighty important. Developing control, in my opinion, is nearly as difficult as developing extra velocity.
Let’s take a look at an example: Mark Rogers fits what I’ve just said perfectly.
Rogers has a blazing fastball. But, why has he struggled to the tune of a 5.03 ERA in 125.1 low minors innings? Well, let’s start with those 84 walks. He cannot locate his pitches well. While he has managed to fan 144 hitters in those innings, he’s also fallen behind to a lot of hitters and gotten hit hard because of it. A major reason why is that he lacks a third pitch. Without a changeup, hitters can wait back on the 2-1 fastball and hammer it. Rogers will not advance up the minors effectively until he develops a third pitch. Regardless, his lack of control is a vice that will likely haunt him through his career.
(In terms of stuff, note that being left-handed is a virtue, as lefties are far harder to find, it is common for them to throw softer. A lefty that throws 88MPH is about the equivalent of a righty that throws 90MPH)

CONSIDERATION 3: AGE AND COMPETITION LEVEL
This one is easy and holds true for hitters as well. If a player is relatively young for his league, then you must bump up his stock. The average age for a good prospect at A-ball is about 21. For a prospect in AA, about 22. For a prospect in AAA, 23. Players generally reach their peak baseball condition at age 27 or 28. If a prospect is already 26, do not anticipate the prospect developing much further. This comes with a caveat. If a player lacks a lot of experience and is relatively old, expect him to continue improving past his late-20’s, as he gets more experience. The best example here is Canadian players, who don’t play as much baseball when they are young and generally peak a year or two after American players.
Ultimately, you want to look for two things: First, that the player was relatively young for his level. Second, that the player has advanced through each level smoothly, without having to stay at any one level struggling for too long.
For an example, take Dennis Sarfate. Sarfate has a good arm and has had decent success in the minors. However, his somewhat strong 2005 performance takes a hit when you consider that he was 24, playing in AA, and had spent all of 2004 in AA.
For all minor leaguers, there is a big difference between A and AA, but not as much between AA and AAA. If a player has made the jump to AA, then he has passed the more daunting challenge in player development. A pitcher still in A-ball has a long road ahead.

CONSIDERATION 4: THE STATS
All of the above considerations are worthless if a pitcher doesn’t have good stats. Everyone agrees that stats are important; some more than others. However, the trick is to know which stats are most important. The first thing to do is to completely disregard a pitcher’s won-loss record. If you see a writer has included that stat in a column to prove something, do not read any more of that article.
Let’s go through each stat one-by-one:
1) Innings Pitched: This is a good starting point. Make sure that the pitcher has over 100 innings in a year (usually between different levels) to ensure that he is both a starter and that he did not suffer from a serious injury throughout the year.
2) Strikeouts: Strikeouts are huge to the success of pitchers. A pitcher does not have much control over what happens when a hitter makes contact with the ball. The only way to ensure an out is to not let the hitter hit the ball. A minor leaguer with a lot of strikeouts probably has a good arm. What is a good amount of strikeouts to look for? Generally, look for a strikeout per inning. If a pitcher has more than a strikeout per inning, it’s a very good thing. If he has a lot less, do not put much faith in him advancing to the Majors.
3) Walks: Walks go hand-in-hand with strikeouts in terms of importance. A guy with very few walks has good control, which we’ve established is perhaps the biggest key to pitching success. Look for at least a 2.5/1 strikeout-to-walk ratio for a pitcher. Anything 4/1 or above is phenomenal. If a pitcher ever has as many walks as strikeouts or anything even close, he is likely garbage.
4) Home Runs Allowed and Ground-Ball/Fly-Ball Ratio: Home runs are the product of several things. Bad location on pitches is one of them, as is getting behind in the count often. Another factor is a pitcher’s propensity to giving up fly balls. A pitcher with 2 or more ground balls for every fly ball allowed is a “ground-ball” pitcher. These pitchers generally give up far fewer extra base hits and, consequently, runs. A pitcher with a home run allowed every 15 innings or more is generally on the right track.
5) Hits Allowed: While a ground-ball pitcher is likely to give up fewer extra base hits, he is more likely to give up more singles. A pitcher has some control over how many hits he allows. A pitcher that strikes out a lot of guys is not going to give up too many hits. Also, a pitcher that throws a lot of changeups generally will give up fewer hits, though perhaps more home runs. Hits are still largely a product of luck; therefore, they are a less important predictive statistic than the previous three.
6) Runs Allowed: ERA is ultimately the biggest indicator of how successful a pitcher was. Unearned runs should also be observed, as a pitcher should prevent unearned runners from scoring. But, runs allowed it is largely driven by luck. It is the culmination of the previous stats and luck, such as park and league effects, defense, and timely hitting by the opposition. As such, the most important things to consider are Strikeouts and Walks. Consider, too, Home Runs and Hits Allowed, but consider park effects and league effects with them. Some leagues, like the California League, are notorious hitter’s leagues. The California League has parks, such as High Desert, which are like playing in Coors Field. For Brewers prospects, it is somewhat easy. No Brewer affiliate currently plays in too much of a hitter or pitcher friendly park. Nashville plays in a very offense-driven league, but is itself not too great of an offensive environment. The three lower Brewer affiliates play in slightly pitcher-friendly environments, as far as I know.

EXAMPLES:
If you use the 4 considerations, you should be able to effectively form your own opinions of prospects. Before you embark on this life-changing journey, let’s go over a few examples.
EXAMPLE 1 Dana Eveland:
MINOR LEAGUE STATISTICS
What do you think? I have not included Eveland’s MLB or spring training numbers.
1) Eveland has no injury history.
2) Eveland has a low-90’s fastball and two other pitches. Because he is left-handed, his fastball is above average. His stuff is pretty good. His fat size is a concern to many, though not me.
3) Eveland is 22 right now, meaning he has been relatively young at each stop in his development. He has also not had to repeat any level for a full season. Perhaps most importantly, he has successfully made it past the AA hurdle. Good development history.
4) Stats: The more recent, the more important. Eveland’s strikeout numbers in AA are good, but they are not spectacular. Again, you’d really like to see him throw a K per inning. His walk totals are quite solid, though not overly spectacular. His home run rate, on the other hand, is quite awesome. His hits allowed are probably a bit higher than most top pitchers, most likely because of his ground-ball tendencies and relatively lower strikeout rates.
5) Overall: Eveland is probably a B prospect. He has a very steady history and is a good ground-ball pitcher. Right now, it does not look like he has enough strikeout and power potential to post an ERA in the 2’s in the Major Leagues, but he does project to have success as a starter if his development continues as is.

EXAMPLE 2: Carlos Villanueva:
MINOR LEAGUE STATISTICS
Villanueva is right-handed and generally considered a soft-tosser. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher.
1) He has no injury history
2) He has at least three pitches, and he relies a lot on his changeup. His fastball hits the very low-90’s. Overall, his stuff is decent, but not great.
3) Villanueva is about average aged for each stop in the minors. He has not repeated a level in his development, meaning he has moved along pretty nicely. However, he has yet to make that jump to AA, a jump pitchers, especially ones without ridiculous stuff, often have trouble making.
4) Stats: Again, the more recent, the more important. Villanueva has an awesome 2005 campaign that seemingly came out of nowhere. There is potential for him to be a one-year wonder. His strikeout numbers are very good, as are his walk numbers. You see that strikeout per inning and superb 4/1 K/BB that I mentioned before. Home runs allowed is generally a problem, but he took a huge step in the right direction last year. The ridiculously low hit total is probably largely a result of luck, though he has enough strikeouts and throws enough changeups that I’d expect the hit total to be low.
5) Overall: Villanueva is probably a B- prospect. He has been healthy. His numbers were awesome for one year. But, he has not made it to AA and succeeded yet. And, he has a reputation for not throwing hard. The fly balls are a bit of a concern moving forward.

EXAMPLE 3: Now you take one: Manny Parra:
MINOR LEAGUE STATISTICS
Parra is left-handed and can throw in the mid-90’s. He also has some good complimentary pitches. So, what is your take on Parra? What if he wasn’t injured?

CONCLUSION:
I hope this is useful for those interested in learning more about baseball. I appreciate any and all feedback. Be back at you sometime this week with the hitting side of things.

Last Chance to Vote

Just a reminder to all those interested in participating in the 2006 MLB Prediction Challenge, you must get your picks in by this coming Saturday.

Here is the LINK to the original prediction post. Let's get some picks in folks! It doesn't cost anything to play.

Fantasy Baseball League

I'm looking for eager baseball nerds to fill in a couple spots in my school fantasy baseball league. We have 6 managers as it stands, but I'd like to get at least 8. The draft is this Thursday, March 30 at 7:00 PM central time.

Here's the info:

League ID#:
234688

League Name:
UDSL baseball league

Password:
UDSL

Link

Sponsoring a Baseball Reference Page

I think it would be a fun thing to do, contribute to the propagation of baseball knowledge (I'm sure the lot of us has realized just how awesome Baseball Reference is), and give Brew City Sports a little bit of advertising.

The donations for sponsoring a page vary based on how popular they feel the page to be. "Old Hoss" Radbourn's page is $25; "Old Hoss" Twineham's page is $2.

You can also sponsor team pages. The 1987 Brewers page is open for $10 (they of the thirteen-and-oh-to-start-the-season fame). So is the 2002 Brewers page (they of the 106 losses). Besides putting a link to your site, you can write witty epigraphs.

I discussed this with The Bub a little bit yesterday, and we both think it a good idea. What do y'all think?

Brewers Pre-Season Top-20 Prospect List

For as much as I love fantasy baseball, I'd much rather discuss minor league baseball. One of my favorite parts about this blog is that it will make my fellow Brewers fans quite knowledgable about every aspect of the upcoming Brewers season. The more you know about the team, the more fun it is to follow the team. Understanding a team's minor league system is a huge step in becoming a die-hard, annoying baseball nerd like myself. With that in mind, I thought we could all make some predictions about the progress of Brewers prospects throughout the year. This way, like with the Prediction Challenge, we can laugh at where we went wrong when the season is over.

Last August, I listed my top-30 Brewers Propsects. I am happy to say that none of my choices look too foolish at the moment. Here are my top-20 heading into the season:

1) Prince Fielder 1B
2) Corey Hart OF
3) Nelson Cruz OF
4) Ryan Braun 3B
5) Jose Capellan RP
6) Zach Jackson SP
7) Dana Eveland SP
8) Carlos Villanueva SP
9) Yovani Gallardo SP
10) Hernan Iribarren 2B
11) Manny Parra
12) Dennis Sarfate SP
13) Mark Rogers SP
14) Will Inman SP
15) Angel Salome C
16) Tim Dillard SP
17) Vinny Rotino UTIL
18) Brad Nelson OF/1B
19) Charlie Fermaint CF
20) Tony Gwynn Jr. CF

What do you guys think about the list? Is there anyone really over or under rated? If you are comfortable doing so, give me your top-20, top-10, whatever. Entertain me and my love of MiLB.

Are there any guys you think will have breakout years in 2006?
The Brewers have started a new minor league development tactic, where the organization signs the highest-rated talent out of Latin American countries. In the past, the Brewers would spend money scouting and running camps in such countries. Now, the organization has cut that cost and, instead, just spent the money outbidding other interested teams for the top-notch talent. Perhaps the fruits of this new technique with come from Rolando Pascual, a 17-year old pitcher. He is a guy I hope gets some meaningful action in 2006, though he will likely start off in short-season rookie ball.

Of the rest of the players in the organization, I expect the biggest chances for a breakout season to come from Yovani Gallardo, Will Inman, and maybe even Alcides Escobar. Vinny Rotino could find himself on the verge of Milwaukee by next year. I like the direction he is headed a lot. This is a make or break (literally) year for Manny Parra. I've already decided Hendrickson and Krynzel are done. I hate to say it, but I think Mark Rogers is going to struggle agian this year. I hope you're all laughing at me for saying that in 6 months.

Draft Assessment

What are your thoughts on todays draft? How do you like your team? Who has the best team? Who (besides mike) drafted the worst team? As you're all aware, I was severely disappointed to miss out on Travis Hafner in the second round, and I suspect some foul play, since the player who drafted him was fully aware of my intentions. My offense suffered as a result, but I feel that I recognized the premium on power hitters and was able to obtain some excellent values at starting and relief pitching. I am not satisfied wtih my offense as-is, but if Scott Rolen returns to true form, and if I am able to swing a trade for T-Haf, I feel like I can compete. What do we think about handicapping the fantasy league? I could put up over/unders on point totals for each player and take bets of 1 pbr on either side. Let me know what you all think. Also, if your name is $lash, and you wish to redeem a defunct friendship, think about upgrading your miserable pitching staff for a valuable indians DH. That is all . . . I think.

Baseball draft

Check out the stat categories and player categories and draft order and make sure I got everything right. Good luck, you will need it.

Yahoo! "Expert" Draft

Look at the first round . . . Santana 3??? Ortiz 12??? Rest assured, I won't be taking a pitcher with the third pick, and I'm pretty confident Jimmy won't have David Ortiz fall into his lap at 12. Also, who the hell is T. Tiffee? Did Hafner change his name? And the premium on speed? Am I the only one that thinks he could have cleaned up with this league of experts?

Draft Order

This oughtta tide you idiots over for a few more days. Also, we've thus far received exactly one vote (well, two: I vote keeper) for the keeper league thing. Anyway, the legitimacy of this order can be verified by E. Without further ado:

1 Juicebow
2 Skip Dizzle
3 The Bub
4 Mr. Bub
5 Jhonny 'Peralta' Bru
6 The Mini
7 Periwinkle (??????)
8 $lash
9 LIFM
10 Ryan Miller
11 E
12 Condescendy

Start preparing. With a couple additions and a full league, do we still want those extra positions?

First of many smart trades

Bill Mo Pena was dealt to the Red Sox for Bronson Arroyo this morning. I--as a Reds fan--see this mking tremendous sense because the Reds are in dire need of quality starting pitchers. Arroyo--despite not being a true #1 starter--will without a doubt take the hill against the Cubs in two weeks on Opening Day. Krivsky also got the Sox to throw in cash to help pay for the Arroyo contract--something he undoubtebly values coming from an organization like Minnesota.

Pena, is a power hitter with questionable defensive skills and a reputation for being very inconsistent at the plate. His upside might be higher than Arroyo's, but this move shows a willingness on the part of the new management and ownership to sacrifice a surplus of power in order to fill a starving need in the rotation. Not too mention they got tremendous value in exchage for a guy that represents nothing more than potential. Arroyo, 29, went 14-10 with a 4.51 ERA in 35 games (32 starts) for the Red Sox last season. He established career highs in wins (14), starts (32) and innings pitched (205.1) while producing a team-high 20 quality starts. Argue against the merit of a stat like "quality starts," but this guy eats up innings and pitched very well in one of baseball's most hitter-friendly ballparks. His transition to Great American shouldn't jump his numbers too much--if at all.

Now the lineup will round out by shifting Dunn back to the outfield--reports have indicated the transition to first hasn't been very smooth this spring--and allow Hatteberg to take over at first base. Hattaberg is much better defensively than Dunn and his bat fits quite well at the bottom of the Reds lineup that is already among the best in baseball. Edwin Encarnacion's torrid spring further facilitates this trade for Arroyo. As of late last week, Encarnacion was batting .484 (15-for-31) with six home runs and leading the Majors with 14 RBIs. His slugging percentage was a hefty 1.258 with a .543 on-base percentage. He's 23 years old and his defense is reportedly leaps and bounds above where it was last September thanks to playing winter ball.

Now I have concrete proof that this Krivsky guy knows his shit and is only a matter of years away from getting this team's future in check. The pieces are all in place for me to start paying attention to the entire Reds organization again, and perhaps become something close to an active baseball fan again--something I haven't been able to claim since middle school.

This trade, while it won't win the Reds too many more games this season, is extremely large and makes me very optimistic for the direction of professional baseball's oldest team.

Anyone Interesting in Filling in a fantasy draft?

From Ryan Miller:

"So they switched my hours at the radio station, which means that there is a draft on Sunday night (the 26th) at 6pm that I don't think I'll be able to make. It's an in-person NL-only keeper league auction draft. I'm wondering if any of you would be available/interested in the challenge of the auction draft. From last years roster, I'm keeping: Abreu, Willis, Matt Morris, Brad Hawpe, Mike Gonzalez, Noah Lowry, and maybe Matt Holiday. The rest would be up to you...
Shoot an email to rbmiller1221@yahoo.com if you are game.
Thanks, Ryan"

Obviously this is only for the people that could be in the Milwaukee area next sunday night. I believe the draft is in the OC.

MLB 2006 Prediction Challenge

Alright folks, here are the rules to the 2006 prediction challenge:

• You are to predict the final standings and record for all teams. Predict the four playoff teams from each league. Then, predict the winner of each divisional series, each championship series, and the world series. Also predict how many games it will take to win a series.
• Also, predict the top three finishers in (1) Rookie of the Year voting, (2) MVP voting, and (3) Cy Young voting.

Scoring:

• +15pts for each playoff team you predict correctly.
• +5pts for predicting a team's correct final place within a division's standings (even the division and wild card winner get the +5).
• +5pts for predicting a team's exact record
• -1pt for however many games off you are in predicting a team's record
• +20pts for picking the winner of a divisional series
• +30pts for picking the winner of a league championship series
• +40pts for picking the world series winner
• If you pick the winner of a series, +5 for picking the correct amount of games the team will win the series in
• +25pts for picking the winner of the RoY, Cy Young, or MVP
• +15pts for picking the top three (not in the right order) in one of the RoY, Cy Young, or MVP (include the +25 if you get the winner of the award correct)
• In addition to the +25 for picking the winner of a category, +25 for picking all three finalists in the correct order.
• If you did not predict the winner or the top three finalists, +10pts for having the winner of a category as your second-place prediction in a category
• If you did not predict the winner or the top three finalists, +5pts for having the winner of a category as your third-place prediction in a category

In case of ties:

• If you predict a team to have the same record as another, whatever place you write the team in in your predicted standings will be the place you predict the team to finish.
• If MLB teams finish with the same record, whatever team has the better run differential will be considered the higher place team.
• If there is a tie after the tiebreaker or in the final voting of an award, the players or teams will be considered to have finished in whatever order benefits your individual team.

What are we betting:

• Not money. PRB and Brandy. You guys let me know how much of each you are willing to risk, thus how much you could be rewarded.

How will we make the bets:

• It might be easiest if you emailed me a spreadsheet of your predictions. For an example, check my post in the comments. I can post your spreadsheet as a webpage. If you'd rather, post all your predictions in the comment section. I will republish this post regularly to keep it on the top of the blog until the April 1 deadline.

Vote: Keeper League

Unbeknownst to me, there's an opinion out there that doesn't favor a keeper league. I'd like to have a vote to determine whether this will be a keeper, once and for all. Here are the pros and cons

Argument for keeper league: extra element to the game, something new

Arguments against keeper league: Draft dilemma - how do we account for forgoing picks?; what do we do with players that drop out

My vote is that we go keeper, because I think we can have people pick their kept players in the round that they have to give up a pick (that make sense?) and we've likely got a committed group to a year after year league. Your thoughts? Vote will end next Wednesday at midnight central.

Introduction

By the way, for all those contributors who don't know me, I'm Bru, the newest scribe on Brew City Sports. Enjoy my first article, the Blue Jays "novel" posted below.

Toronto Blue Jays

In the four years since he was hired as Blue Jays GM before the 2002 season, J.P. Ricciardi dumped overvalued players, trimmed the payroll by $30 million, and restocked the farm system to give it more depth and make it one of the better systems in baseball. J.P. was hired after a disappointing 2001 season with the one-and-only Gord Ash (not to be confused with Jordache) at the helm, in which the Jays finished 80-82 with a $76.9 million payroll, thanks in part to OBP stalwarts such as Alex Gonzalez (.303), Cesar Izturis (.279), and Tony Batista (.251), and a menacing rotation back-ended by Joey Hamilton, Steve Parris, and Chris Michalak.

J.P. then built a team with two mediocre seasons (2002 and 2005) bookending a superb season (2003 – 86-76) and a horrific season (2004 – 67-94) riddled by tons of injuries. Last year, the Jays matched their 2001 record (80-82), but with only a $45.7 million payroll. This fiscal responsibility, along with the increased value of the Canadian Dolár, a more aggressive marketing campaign, the purchase of the SkyDome by Rogers Communications (which owns the Jays), and subsequent refurbishments of the stadium, lessened the Jays’ huge business losses and put owner Ted Rogers and President Paul Godfrey in a position to authorize a payroll of $210 million over the next three years.

The oh-pportunity to increase the payroll by $25 million has led to a "To hell with it; we’re going for the whole enchilada" approach, noticeably different than J.P.’s previous sabermetrically-managed seasons. I’m not going to argue that the acquisitions the Jays brought in were the best moves, and they certainly offered more money and longer contracts to certain players than common sense dictates. But on the other hand, they need to take a risk like this to contend with the leviathans of Boston and New York. Their improvement this off-season may not have been the most cost-effective, but the bottom line is that they’re still improved. I wouldn’t advocate running a team like this year after year, and we all know J.P. wouldn’t – and hasn’t – either. Nonetheless, in the words of the Chambers Brothers, "Time has come today" for the Jays to go for it all.

There are a couple reasons for this. First, the Jays’ Pythagorean record last year was 88-74. That was only two games behind both the Red Sox and Yankees’ Pythagoreans. Secondly, the Yankee clipper is starting to spring some major leaks. The only significant addition was Johnny Damon, and while he’s a significant improvement over Bernie Williams/Tony Womack in CF, he’s still no panacea to their aging roster. Anyway, I’m not here to do the Yankees preview. The central question is: have the Blue Jays made up those two games’ difference, considering the Yankees’ changes? It’s very possible. The Red Sox improved much more, but even they are susceptible to a Jays team that gets on the better side of their Pythagorean. I’ll officially say I’m expecting the Jays to at least finish ahead of one of those two teams this year, despite their increased payroll still being a fraction of either’s.

Significant additions were Troy Glaus, Lyle O’bay, B.J. Ryan, A.J. Burnett, and, to a lesser extent, Bengie Molina and Jason Phillips, whom I’ll discuss more below.

Manager
John Gibbons. Ever since reading Ball Four, I’ve held to my belief that the two real benefits a manager can give to his team are: a. the players like him, and b. he isn’t paid a lot. Gibbons fits both categories, so I’m happy with his job. J.P. has given him a ton of flexibility this year, at the C, LF, RF, 1B, and 3B positions, so it will be interesting to see how he uses it.

Defense
C – Bengie Molina. Molina’s coming off a career year in OPS (.782), which tied him for 4th among AL catchers last year. He will certainly be in the lineup against all left-handed starters (1.078 OPS vs. LH last year), and will definitely be in there for some of the righties. The Jays signed him at $5 million for one year. Most importantly, Molina should bolster the Jays’ GITP stats, which have been lacking since Alex Gonzalez’s departure.

Greg Zaun. Zaun is still good enough to be the starter, and he’s not happy to be relegated to the backup position. He will get more playing time than normal backups. Given his numbers last year (.355 OBP, 11 HR), he should be more than just a backup. Molina’s numbers drop off significantly vs. righties, so expect Zaun to get almost entirely PAs vs. them this year. As a side note, I coincidentally realized he was #2 in the AL in pitches taken per plate appearance.

1B – Lyle Overbay. The Jays gave the Brewers a pretty good package to get him, but the benefit in Overbay, besides an OPS improvement of at least 50 points, is that he will only be paid $2.5 million in 2006, which was about the average salary in 2005.

2B – Aaron Hill. Hill fills O-Dog’s void as the Jays’ starting second baseman after only playing 22 games there last year. He hit the ground running last year, with a 1.040 OPS in his first month in the majors, then tailed off to end up at .727 for the season. Nevertheless, Hill can be expected to improve on that (hopefully avoiding Hinske’s post-rookie-year fate).

3B – Troy Glaus. Acquired in a trade with the D’Backs, along with prospect Sergio Santos, for Orlando "O-Dog" Hudson and Miguel Batista, Glaus will probably occupy the fifth spot after Overbay. He will be the starting 3B, although for the sake of staying healthy I hope Hillenbrand or Hinske can spell him once in a while so he can DH. He gets $9 million this year. He had the 5th most HRs of any National Leaguer last year (37), so acquiring him will improve the Jays’ 11th place AL finish in HRs last season. The key here will be staying healthy. He had shoulder surgery in 2004, but the good news is he was healthy last year.

SS – Russ Adams. Adams will be the likely leadoff hitter (with Freed Catalanohnson being another possibility). Although his OBP needs to improve (.325 last season) he is learning to take pitches fast and can foul off 2-strike pitches like Richie Ashburn. Expect him to get more ABs against lefties this year in order to mold him into a complete everyday player.

LF – Frank Catalanotto / Reed Johnson. Also known (by me) as “Freed Catalanohnson” (or, alternatively, “Rank Johnsalanotto”), they may continue to hold this platoon for the third straight year. However, there’s been talk of John Gibbons shuffling these two, plus Rios and Hinske between RF and LF.

Their output will be well worth the collective $4 million the Jays are spending on them this year. Especially the $2.7 for Catalanotto, which is a steal considering the hitter he has been.

CF – Vernon Wells. With the extra protection in the lineup, I’m hoping Wells can up his .783 OPS last season at least 40 points. With Overbay, Glaus, and Hillenbrand after him, pitchers will be less likely to throw him pitches out of the strike zone and more likely to throw him fastballs, which he loves. Still, in the past he has to have set season records for GOTSASATFP (Grounding Out To Short After Swinging At The First Pitch).

RF – Alex Rios / Eric Hinske. If his performance isn’t strong enough to net him an everyday job in right field, Rios could platoon with Hinske, who will be experimenting as an outfielder this year. The problem is Rios, a right-handed batter, doesn’t have the usual lefty/righty splits. In fact, in his career he’s been slightly better (.714 vs. .703 OPS) vs. righties. A big question is his power, expectations of which once helped make him one of baseball’s top prospects, but has been lacking in the majors despite a noticeable increase last year (+.039 IsoP).

Hinske is eligible for the Pat Listach Award for Distinguised Post—RotY-Award Mediocrity, though his drop off hasn’t been so extreme. The good news is that his 2005 season was a rebound of 76 points OPS-wise. He’s been tearing it up in spring training so far.

DH – Shea Hillenbrand. Will be their prime DH. Jays avoided arbitration this year by signing him to a 1-year, $5.8 million deal. It’s interesting, the Jays will have three former D-Backs of the last 5 years batting in a row, but none of them (with a two-month exception) played together.

Others

John McDonald. A good vet to have around if only to help Hill with his position change and fielding mechanics. Plus he’s a "clubhouse guy" so he should add a couple wins.

Possible Lineups
vs. RHP

1. Adams 2. Catalanotto 3. Wells 4. Overbay 5. Glaus 6. Hillenbrand 7. Zaun/Molina 8. Hinske/Rios 9. Hill (the last 3 positions could change a lot)

vs. LHP

1. Johnson 2. Adams 3. Wells 4. Glaus 5. Hillenbrand 6. Overbay 7. Molina 8. Rios 9. Hill

Pitching
Rotation

Roy Halladay. Halladay returned to Cy Young form last year (108/18 K/BB, 0.96 WHIP) before that louse Kevin Mench hit him in the shin with a line drive right after the All-Star break and finished his season. Halladay’s back this year and, barring another freak accident, should have another stellar season.

A.J. Burnett. Signed a 5-year, $55 mil contract this offseason, and I had to eat some crow because I didn’t think there was a chance the Jays would land him, despite the fact that they have his friend and former pitching coach Brad Arnsberg as a lure. I fully expect this deal to bite the Jays in the ass in 2008-10 when they are paying him $12 million a year, given his injury history. However, he could pay dividends this year (only being paid $7 mil), and I think the Jays will be more cautious with his pitch counts than the futureless Marlins.

Ted Lilly. One of the few bright spots on the ’04 Jays (and one of the few players who played the whole year), if he can return to his ’04 numbers (168 Ks, 4.06 ERA) with a little less walks and HRs, that would be a solid #3 performance. Hopefully with A.J. Burnett slotted in the #2 position, that will take a little pressure off Lilly.

Gustavo Chacin. Clearly the best person ever, “The Machine” Chacin will throw 3 perfect games this year and eradicate bird flu. Also known for his hitting prowess (1 R against the Cubs last year), Gussie’s best asset is his deceptive delivery, which includes his trademark glove wave, hiding the ball behind his substantial midsection, having the Rogers Centre lights reflect off his goggles, and seducing hitters. Chacin-o could start the season slowly, as Team Venezuela, with its powerhouse rotation, has given him very little work on the mound at the WBC.

Josh Towers. The favorite for the 5th starter position, Towers posted some excellent numbers for a back-end pitcher last year, including a 112/29 K/BB ratio, which surprised me when I looked it up. He’s a total finesse pitcher, and could compete with Russ Adams for the Jays prestigious ability-to-look-eight-years-old award.

Bullpen

B.J. Ryan. At 5 years, $47 million, the Jays overpaid for him and gave him too many years for only one good showing. In fact, it was the largest deal ever for a reliever. I hope he won’t become the next Randy Myers in the line of Blue Jays closers. This deal could have been done in part to lure Burnett to sign.

Rest of Bullpen. I’m not going to go through each of them individually. Suffice it to say Frasor and Speier will be the key set-up men, with Schoeneweis as the lefty setup man. Vinnie Chulk will probably be more of a 7th inning guy, with Scott Downs doing long relief. Besides the Ryan signing and Miggy Batista’s departure, not much about the bullpen changed. You could see guys like Dustin McGowan, Pete Walker, Brandon League, or others in the bullpen on opening day.

Prospects

I would have Guillermo Quiroz on here, but the Jays might lose him. Once considered one of the best prospects in the game, a slew of injuries have slowed Quiroz down, and now he’s out of options and will probably be picked up on waivers, assuming he doesn’t make the roster. It’s possible the Jays could have 3 catchers, but with two solid backstops in Molina and Zaun, and adding Jason Phillips to the mix, it makes that a distant possibility.

Dustin McGowan (P). Coming off Tommy John surgery in 2004, McGowan pitched 45 1/3 innings last year and struggled a bit. He will start for the Jays in 2006 if Towers falters or if there is an injury (knock on wood for Burnett). Good changeup. SIMILAR BODY TYPE AS BUDDY BIANCALANA, except much taller and heavier.

David Purcey (P). At first the Jays’ #1 pick in ‘04 got off to a slower start than his successor draft-wise, Zach Jackson. But he ended up excelling in AA last year in 43 innings. Like the Red October, Purcey is a “big son of a bitch.” Unlike the Red October, he’s a power pitcher who needs to get a bit more control.

Ricky Romero (P). First pick last year, will hopefully be ready for the majors by next year. Pitched 33 decent innings at Dunedin (A) last year, and will probably start either there or New Hampshire (AA) this year.

John-Ford Griffin (OF). Although he’s not young anymore (26), I put him in here because he could be playing in the majors this year. Griffin killed the ball in AAA last year. He’ll definitely see some major league action this year, and could be the Jays’ starting LF next year if they don’t re-sign Little Cat.

Others of note: P Josh Banks (145/11 K/BB last year in AA), SS Sergio Santos, P Ty Taubenheim (came over in the Overbay trade), P Casey Janssen, C Curtis Thigpen, P Jamie Vermilyea (just returned via Rule V from Boston), 1B Chip Cannon, OF Ryan Patterson, P Ben Weber (just kidding).

Back from Phoenix

I see you've done a good job keeping the board alive whilst I was away. Excellent work with the America Dog, the Bub. We're going to have some America Dogs this summer at Brewers tailgi.

I have off the rest of the week and plan on watching a lot of NCAA basketball and making a lot of posts about baseball.

A few notes:

• It looks for certain that our fantasy league will not be a keeper's league. It'll just be too much trouble to make it a keeper's league.
• I was indeed at the USA/South Africa game, and it was an absolute treat. There was a 30+MPH gusting out to center field and the RSA team was literally worse than many college teams. Griff Dogg is amazing.
• The Brewers are playing a bit sluggish right now, with very few players having the kind of springs that I want to see. The players stading out right now are Nelson Cruz, Corey Hart, and Dave Bush. What do the Brewers do with Hart and Cruz to start the year?
• The decision on what to do with Bush has been made really clear: he will be in the starting rotation at the beginning of the year. Sheets is going to miss a lot of time. I have no basis for saying that beyond speculation regarding his injury. Pitching injuries either go away for good or they re-occur forever. Sheets' back/shoulder issues, to me, seem to be the latter. Davis, Capuano, Bush, Ohka, and Helling will form the 1-5.
• It's good that the Crew acquired Bush because the rest of the rotation hopefuls have been awful. Hendrickson won't be in the system too much longer, Eveland has had one of the worst Springs I've ever seen to date, and Zach Jackson is not at the MLB level. I wouldn't be too surprised to see a Justin Lehr, Jose Capellan, or Jorge de la Rosa starting experiment by the end of April. I hate pitching.
• Ryan Howard is a monster.
• I'd like to do a little MLB 2006 Prediction Challenge on here. Any thoughts on the format? Right now, I plan on just going division by division and then each postseason award individually as a post. Everyone interested can participate. We'll work out a scoring system and perhaps put some PBR on the line. Sound like fun?

espn insider

the bub, i need your help. normally i hate the idea of paying for "premium" stories on espn or any other web site, but insider has an article on the uga qb battle for next season and i am a thirstin' for details on this subject right now--besides what i've read in the papers or heard from fellow alumns.

is there any way you could email it to me or post it here? while unethical and possibly illegal, i need the latest scoop on my dawgs and how incoming frosh stud matt stafford is doing in spring practice thus far.

gives us the order already!

with the draft less than two weeks away, shouldn't we have the order by now to start planning things out. also, what are the rules on draft-day trades?

NCAA selection soap box

OK, so here’s the deal. I’m sick and tired of listening to sportscasters gripe about the NCAA tournament selection, so I’m going to gripe about them, and how they’re ridiculous.

Hey Clark Kellogg, why in the world is it such a big deal that Air Force stole a 13th seed from Cincinnati, Maryland, Michigan, or Florida State? Does anyone actually think any of these five teams has a legitimate shot at winning the tournament? No, nobody that isn’t an insane fanatic at least. I applaud the selection committee for throwing a few mid majors in and leaving a few perennials that had average seasons out. It’s too bad they didn’t do the same with Texas A&M. Why not recognize a good season from a mid-major team with a berth? It’s not like anyone is going to forget that those other teams have good basketball programs because of one tournament absence.

My question then is how did the selection committee decide on the bubble teams from mid-major conferences? A dartboard? A roulette wheel? Why Air Force and Utah State?

Air Force played one game against a top 50 RPI team (Washington) and lost. Their SOS was 158 and their RPI was 51! What gives? Hofstra had a better record (24-6 vs. 22-6), better RPI (30 vs. 51), and were 3-2 against top 50 teams. If I cared about Hofstra b-ball, I’d be more than angry.

Come on Seth Davis and Clark Kellogg, at least gripe about how Missouri State and Hofstra got snubbed instead of boo-hooing for Cincinnati. If I had a farm, I'd bet it against anyone who thinks Missouri State's will surpass or match their #20 RPI next season. Give these teams the 15 seconds of fame that the selection committee wouldn’t. Never fear sportscasters, your precious Bearcats will be back in the bubble mix next year.

Moustaches

Came across this the other day. Enjoy, Jimmy...

http://msn.foxsports.com/cbk/story/5393476?GT1=7934

Speaking of Disgusting

Although this baseball team claims creation of "Baseball's Best Hotdog" as well as this burger, Condescendy", seen in the photo below, clearly anticipated the team's idea with his "America Dog".

Photo circa 2000: Condey enjoying a meat on meat treat.

Oh my God, this is disgusting

Thankfully Fielder's already through the minors.

The best Brewers games I've ever attended

I feel like I’ve attended enough brewers games in my lifetime to outline the top ten games I’ve ever attended. Sure, some have sentimental value to me and me alone, but on the whole these were some pretty sweet games to be at. Let me know what you think of the list, and what your top games in attendance have been.

10. CLUB LEVEL BITCHES. May 15, 2004 Atlanta 11 Milwaukee 6. I hate my dentist, but he gave me some nasty seats to a Brewers game two years ago. Unfortunately, I couldn’t make the game the original day, but we traded them in for Braves tickets a couple weeks later. Not only did we sit in the greatest goddamn seats in Miller Park, but we saw by far the best injury I have ever witnessed in Miller park. While retreating to catch a shallow fly ball in right center, Brave’s second baseman and resident bulldog, Marcus Giles, collided with centerfielder Andruw Jones and shattered his clavicle. Others in attendance: J-Beast, Jhorts, other(?).

9. Fielder goes Yard. Detroit @ Milwaukee, circa 1991, fan appreciation day. I remember little about this game, as I was 8, but I do recall that Cecil Fielder, that’s right, Prince’s papa, hit a home run out of County Stadium. Here’s hoping we see some more of that from the Fielder blood lines. Others in attendance: Perhaps $.

8. Happy 21, the Bub. July 27, 2004 Chicago 7 Milwaukee 1. Following a sweet road trip, including stops in Mo-Town, Philly, Cleveland, and Poopsburgh, Jimmy, $la$h and I went to the Brewers game for my 21st birthday. They’d be facing our most hated foe, the Chicago Cubs, using our most potent pitching weapon, Benjamin Sheets. But they lost. Why was this so great? Former Brewer Russel the Muscle Branyan, in his first few weeks with the club, hit a 480 foot home run off the scoreboard. However, I did not get to see that in real time. Why? The iceman was administering frostbite in the form of two cool miller lites. Others in attendance: $lash, J-Beast.

7. First game at the new park. April 25, 2001 Brewers 7 Mets 2. First game I ever watched in Miller Park. First of many. Others in attendance: E, possibly $lash.

6. First ball game. Brewers vs. Twins April, 1989. My first game, ever. Dad pulled me out of school. Wouldn’t be the last time I skipped an obligation to watch baseball (I’m taking vacation for opening day; skipped countless classes for televised games). Remember little else about the game, other than that the Brewers won, and I didn’t see the brewers win again until their last year in County Stadium. I guess that’s not THAT noteworthy – a lot of people can probably claim that. The bub father

5. Counsell you genius. August 5, 2004 Mets 11 Brewers 6. Huh? What? I’ll tell you what: Baird paid for me to go to a Brewers game in a luxury box (sweet), I had just turned 21 (sweet), and Cragamus Counsell hit into his sixth and final catchers interference. I immediately sprinted up to the Loge level to high five the J-Beast, Working the game that afternoon. Others in attendance: J-Beast.

4. Comeback #1. June 19, 2004 Brewers 7 Twins 6. The second best comeback I have ever personally witnessed from a Brewers team in Miller Park. The Brewers fell behind 5-0 early before rallying for 6 runs in the bottom of the 7th inning. Then, in the top of the 8th, the butt of nearly all of mine/J-Beast’s jokes that day, Jaques Jones, actually hit a home run to tie the game. To make matters worse, the fan in the outfield that caught the ball threw it back on to the field, Wrigley style, succumbing to intense fan pressure. Thankfully, the tides were turned when J-Beast usher scolded the man, informing him that this isn’t Chicago and we don’t do that here. The Brewers pitched themselves out of a jam that inning, and Geoff Jenkins led off the bottom of the 8th with a solo shot to give the Crew the W in front of a packed house. Others in attendance: the minniest and J-Beast.

3. Goodbye, old gray girl. September 28, 2000 Reds 8 Brewers 1. Last game in County Stadium. We miss you, old gray girl. Others in attendance: $lash, J-Beast, Bru.

2. McGwire goes yard. September 20, 1998 Cardinals 11 Brewers 6. Mark McGwire hits 65 (and 66). Thebubfather bought his sons tickets to two different late season games between the Brewers and Cardinals during what was clearly a historic run by Mr. McRoider. The first tickets were to a game August 5, and, unfortunately, the Cards sat McGwire that game. However, in the September game, McGwire rocked Scott Karl in the first inning for his 65th, and actually hit his 66th (bet you didn’t know he hit 71 in ’98), but the umps called it back on fan interference. The ball was clearly over the fence, and this was clearly one of the best games I ever saw in Milwaukee. Others in attendance: thebubfather, the mini, the minniest.

1. I hate the Cubs. June 23, 2005 Brewers 8 Cubs 7. Thursday afternoon game, so clearly there are about 10 times more vocal cubs fans than Brewers fans, most of whom were elderly and kinders anyway. Back and forth game that culminated with a tie-breaking two run shot by Bill hall in the bottom of the 8th, vanquishing the Cubs and sending their fans crying on their trips back down I-94. Others in attendance: J-beast, Milligan, my friend Baker, the Cubs fan (that’s part of the reason this was so sweet)

Honorable mention: Tankersly hits for the cycle (almost); Billy Spiers gets attacked; the Gnat Game ($la$h should recall this one)

Great

Sheets hurt again. He allowed 6 of the 7 batters he faced to reach base today. Also of note, Kane Davis changed his name.

ESPN Tourney Challenge

Hello again all, As usual, I am starting a free pool on espn.com. In case you haven't joined before, you go to espn.com and click on the tournament challenge ad that will be running throughout the next 3 weeks.

The group name is "Slap the Floor" The password is "Krzyzewski" and the directions are quite simple. Take note of the great logo and group motto.

Good luck,
Carlson

These guys love the bewers

Check out this article. Roundtable discussion on the NL Central. They say some interesting things, especially about how Bill James would predict a breakout year for the crew this year (young lineup, underperform Pythagorean from last year, fall short of predicted RC last year). Also, FWIW, Melvin's stat guy predicted 88 wins for the Crew this year. This Bub will be putting some money down on the Brewers' over now, as soon as it goes from 80.5 at -130 and jumps to 81 or 81.5 at -110. I don't want to pay an extra 20% if they're wrong by 7 games anyway.

A true Prince

Ok, this article about Prince seems very ordinary at first, but upon reading further, I noticed that something about it makes me chuckle.

Beginning of the article:

"First baseman Prince Fielder was watching a Lakers game at the home of teammate Tony Gwynn Jr. in San Diego this winter when he sent his wife, Chanel, to a local sports bar for a snack." While she was there, she found out about the Overbay trade.

"she quickly raced back with the food and the report."

Which do you think Prince was more excited about?

Then later in the article:

"Speaking of challenges, Chanel is pregnant and due any day. Yost has given Fielder the green light to be at the hospital at a moment's notice."

This means that in December, Chanel was 6 months pregnant, yet she was sent by Prince to fetch a snack at a local sports bar. What a fat, lazy man! Seriously, this guy is going really struggle with keeping his weight under control for his entire career.

What the f

is up with the main page formatting? Another reason you shouldn't drink and blog. Seriously, though, did somebody fuck with the settings? I tried to fix it but haven't a damn idea what I'm doing

Brewers March 8th Gameday

We got the Royals at 2:00 today. Dave Bush, Zach Jackson, Dan Kolb, and Jose Capellan, four guys to keep an eye on, are all scheduled to pitch today. Should be worthwhile.

The past few days have shown something we've seen each of the past couple spring training years: the Brewers beat up on other teams in the late innings of these games, when the youngsters are on the field. Tony Gwynn Jr. has hit two home runs in the last two days. For while that is worth mentioning, check out his stats from last year. Nelson Cruz continues to make a very good case for trading Carlos Lee (he just hit a triple today to accompany a couple of bombs he's hit in the previous few days). Corey Hart has been playing great. Prince Fielder has been out for a few games with an elbow strain, but he just hit a HR to put the crew up 3-0 in the first inning today. Weeks got caught stealing before all this. This aggressiveness on the basepaths is really starting to concern me. The Brewers should not attempt more than 50 SB this season. A last note: Lou Palmisano, a year removed from being our top catching prospect, is playing very well. He, Mike Rivera, and Mark Johnson are all better catchers right now than Chad Moeller. Is it possible that Moeller will be replaced? Probably not. Maybe he can get injured!

This will likely be my last post of the week, as I am headed down to sunny Arizona until next Wednesday. Keep up the good work while I am gone. I'll have some first-hand info on how the Brewers are looking when I get back.

Your NCAA Team Overviews

Wisconsin Badgers

RPI: 16 , Strength of schedule: 6 (19-10 overall, 9-7 conference)
Big Wins: #19 Marquette, #27 UNC Wilmington, #55 UWM, #14 Iowa, #5 Ohio State, #17 Michigan State, #35 Indiana #68 Louisianna Tech, #70 ODU, .#83 Minnesota(twice)
Next game: First round bye, then Indiana in the 2nd round of the Big Ten tourney.
Outlook: The Badgers are battling for positioning in the NCAA. They’re a lock no matter what they do against Indiana.
Notes: The Badgers are awful on the road. They also might be the most boring team on earth.

Marquette Warriors/Gold/Hilltoppers/Golden Eagles

RPI: 19, SOS: 19 (19-9 overall, 10-6 conference)
Big Wins: #3 U Conn, #49 Seton Hall, #87 ND (twice), #15 Pitt, #41 Georgetown.
Next Game: First round bye in the Big East tourney, Notre Dame or Georgetown
Outlook: After playing out of their minds in the toughest conference in college basketball, they’re a lock in the NCAA.
Notes: They won the Great Alaska shootout (3-0 on neutral courts). They’re really young and really good.

UWM Panthers

RPI: 55, SOS: 104 (20-8, 12-4 conference)
Big Wins: Literally none. They beat #69 Montana at Montana. That’s it. They did take 2 of 3 from #80 Butler on the season. They won the Horizon League Tourney.
Next Game: NCAA round 1.
Outlook: It all depends on the seed they draw.
Notes: I saw these guys beat the crap out of an awful Oakland team. They looked really sharp. They full court press and run a hyperactive swing offense. They have three impact players (Joah Tucker, Adrian Tigert, and Boo Davis). They could be trouble in the NCAAs again this season.

Notre Dame Fightin’ Irish

RPI: 87, SOS: 48 (15-12, 6-10 conference)
Big Wins: #30 Hofsta, #46 Alabama, at #49 Seton Hall, #81 Rutgers, #90 Depaul
Next Game: #41 Georgetown in the first round of the Big East tourney.
Outlook: Not good. They’d have to beat G’Town and Marquette to even be considered for an at large.
Notes: I haven’t seen them play, but they have a lot of really close loses.


Saint Louis Billikens

RPI: 95, SOS: 85 (16-12, 10-6 conference)
Big Wins: #31 Southern Illinois, #85 Temple, #97 Xavier(twice), at #101 Charlotte
Next Game: First round bye in A-10 tourney, St. Joseph’s or Dayton
Outlook: I just have ‘em up here because they’re my team. They’d have to beat Dayton/St. Joes and then George Washington on their way to winning the A-10 tourney to have any shot at the NCAA.
Notes: This team angered me more than anything this season. 2 last second losses to Dayton by 2 points each really grinds my gears. They do have 2 freshmen guards that stack up against any in the country.

Liddell/Lisch (Saint Louis): 21.6 ppg - 4.1 assists/game - 9.5 rebounds/game – 62 minutes (61 team ppg)
James/McNeal (Marquette): 26.6 ppg – 8.1 assists/ game – 9.2 rebounds/game – 62 minutes (75 team ppg)

* All rankings are based on the RPI, not the polls.

AL Prospect All-Star Team

A few weeks ago, we looked at the NL Propsects All-Star Team. Now, time for the AL. This is a pretty rough collection on my part, so feel free to throw some names into consideration.

Starters:
C: Jeff Clement, SEA
1B: Daric Barton, OAK
2B: Howie Kendrick, LAA
SS: Brandon Wood, LAA
3B: Andy Marte, CLE
OF: Nick Markakis, BAL
OF: Delmon Young, TAM
OF: Billy Butler, KCR
UTIL: B.J. Upton, TAM

Pitchers:
LHP: Francisco Liriano, MIN
RHP: Justin Verlander, DET
RHP: Joel Zumaya, DET
LHP: Jeremy Sowers, CLE
RHP: Hayden Penn, BAL
LHP: Jon Lester, BOS
RHP: Philip Hughes, NYY
RHP: David Purcey, TOR
RP: Fernando Cabrera, CLE

Bench:
3B: Alex Gordon, KCR
OF: Jason Kubel, MIN
MI: Dustin Pedroia, BOS
1B: Justin Huber, KCR
1B: Kendry Morales, LAA
2B/SS: Ian Kinsler, TEX
OF: Ryan Anderson, CHW

Honorable Mention:
C: Mike Napoli, LAA
RP: Craig Hanson, BOS
RHP: Jered Weaver

Compared to the NL, the AL looks much stronger in the infield and probably in pitching, too. The NL seems to have its biggest edge in the outfield. Overall, advantage AL.

R.I.P. Kirby

You will be missed...

WHY?

Fresh off their Superbowl season, the Seattle Seahawks inked MVP running back Shaun Alexander to an 8 year, $62 deal. My question: WHY? He's a 28 year old running back. RUNNING BACK! I don't care that he was the MVP. Give him 4 years and pay a little extra for those years. There's more turnover at NFL running back than any other position in sports. He's going to be 36 in the final year of his contract. 36! He could shatter his patella in the first play from scrimmage next year! This is a ballsy, risky move to say the least. Doesn't anyone share my sentiments? Would you ever sign a running back past age 30 or 32? Link below.

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5384774


On a related note, the Packers signed Ahman Green to a one year incentive laden contract worth $3-5 mil. Not the greatest move in history, but at least it isn't an 8 year deal. Link below.


LINK

Attention all softball players

This is something we've talked about for a while, but would anybody be interested in at-bat music for this coming season? Jimmy, I think I can record the tmj baseball theme song for you. Anybody else have an opinion or requests?

Brewers March 5th Gameday

For those that couldn't catch yesterday's game, now is your chance to listen to the Brewers on WTMJ. You're not going to want to miss the studio music, trust me. Anyway, Rangers, 2:00, Lord Davis takes the mound. Should be another good one. Powell and Ueck had Mark Ants in the booth for a good three innings yesterday. I anticipate either Doug Melvin, Gord Ash, or Reid Nichols to be in the booth today.

Prince of Power

Nice article about the Prince for all those interested. Also, according to the Brewer's homepage, it would appear that the first televised game of the season will be the March 12th meeting against the Chubs. Ahhh...I love Spring.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=2351244

Hey $lash

Did you see that Pokey Reese went crazy and left Marlin's spring training today? Looks like the Marlins' infield can get younger. They may be younger than the Giants outfield even with Randy Winn. Also of note, did anybody else notice that the Giants starting outfield is collectively older than the Marlins' starting infield? This may actually include the Marlins' catcher, too.

Brewers March 4th Gameday

We've got our first radio broadcast of the season. Those in the Milwaukee area, check it out on WTMJ. Oh my God, it is going to be nice to hear the wonderful sounds of Jim Powell. He usually has some really interesting guests in the booth during spring training games. Game starts at 2:00 against the Oakland A's. Should be fun. Sheets is on the mound and the WTMJ station song is going to rock my world.

Of course you'll have to stop listening to the MU/Providence game. Why isn't that game on TV? Well, I don't know. I'm just glad I get to watch another Michigan State basketball game. Thank God! I've never seen that team play before.

March 2nd Brewers Game Day Thread

The season is finally upon us. For the next 7 months I think it'd be a good idea to just open up a thread where people could post their comments about Brewers games. I'll probably post a bunch of little comments throughout the year when Daron and Bill say stupid things, when Yost makes a silly move, etc. This is a good idea, right?

I'll get us started today. We have two games on the slate (oh I love split squad spring training games). Brewers at Angels and Giants at Brewers. Both games at 2:00 today.

World Baseball Classic

The question I'm posing to everyone here is this: Are you all as psyched up for this thing as I am? I'm ready to watch the east asians battle it out over the next few days on ESPN2 (I'm not lucky enough to be able to watch it live on ESPN Deportes) and then the US pool gets under way a few days from now. I think the format of the event including pitch counts is such a great way to go about this...Any opinions on the WBC?

White Sox Repeat Chances in Jeopardy?

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=260301104

How bad are the Marlins?

Well, they struggled in their first exhibition game, which isn't a surpise. Why is this post worthy? Because they played against a college team with only 2 seniors. They gave up 8 runs and won by a run against the University of Miami. Sure, the 'Canes used metal bats, but come on, the Marlins are a professional team. I can't see the Marlins winning 60 games this year.

Here's the game recap:

LINK

Standing bet offer with a cubs fan

My law school buddy Greg has vowed to take me on in a bet of any size concerning the Cubs and Brewers. I overheard him saying that the Cubbies have a legitimate shot of winning the central. I'd love to bet him straight up that they wouldn't, but he's a smart guy and would never take that bet. So of course, I just laughed at him and prepared to shake it off. Then he went on the offensive and started making fun of the Brewers, which is just in bad taste if you ask me. So I said I'd bet him $5 the Brewers would finished with a better record than the Chubs. He said he'd bet anything. And he will. So I'll open this up to you guys. You tell me how much you'll pony up, and I'll tell him on Monday how much we are going to bet. This is our chance to place that bet that'll make us root even harder aginst the Chubs this season.

Don't get me wrong, I think the teams will probably finish pretty close in the standings this year, but I really feel like the Brewers are a much deeper, more talented team than the chubs this year. What do you think?

I'll be betting $20.

Which is worse?

This is a simple question that can be answered with just a number.

Which is a worse baseball move?
(1) The Pirates signing Jack Wilson to a 3-year, $20 million extension, or
(2) The Brewers hiring former Reds G.M. Dan O'Brien to, well, do anything?

You cannot answer "both."