My $.02 of humor for the day

http://cracked.com/sports/superbowl/

Very Onion'esque and very funny. JBeast, it's too bad you can't actually vote in their poll ;)

Baseball Prospectus 2006 PECOTA Projections

BP has just released its annual PECOTA projections for just about every player that figures to play for a team this year. The projections are almost all computer driven, so you get some results that defy logic. However, when you read the projections recognizing their limitations (i.e. looking more for rate stats rather than the cumulative stat projections), the projections can be quite useful. At the very least, they make for some good conversation.

I don't want to post all of them on here....but I will post some things about the Brewers projections and other players upon request. I can email some parts to you as well if you are doing a team review or something. If people are interested, they should let me know.

San Francisco Giants

Many a sports team has had their success directly correlated with the talent and achievement of their indisputable star player. The Bulls may never have visited the NBA’s promised land without Michael Jordan. USC would be sitting on back to back national championships if it weren’t for Vince Young. Wayne Gretzky had once in a lifetime talent that made everybody around him better. I know little about Pele, but I bet his teams were pretty damned good too. Most will argue that no such player could exist in baseball, as individual players have a smaller individual effect on the outcome of the game than in every other sport. However, most would be dead wrong. I wouldn’t hesitate for a second to add Barry Bonds and the San Francisco Giants to the list of athletes above. Without him, they’re a below average, over the hill group of journeymen. With him, they are an instant threat to win the NL West, at the very least. Steroids aside, Bonds effect on the success of the Giants is immeasurable. It is that very fact, coupled with his ailing knee, that make this team so tough to dissect.

Lets start at the top. Brian Sabean has been at the helm of the Giant’s aging ship since the end of the 1996 season. One thing is for certain, he loves old players. And Wayne Franklin. That’s right, he’s the guy that actually gave up valuable commodities IN EXCHANGE FOR Wayne Franklin. I’m pretty sure that’s the day I realized Doug Melvin was up to something. But I digress. In this little Giants front office bio thing I’m reading, Sabean is being lauded for making major overhauls the last three seasons, as is “the status quo in modern baseball”. However, somebody forgot to inform Sabean that players under 35 can contribute, or that rebuilding tends to be more successful with younger players. Among the players who Sabean has brought in over the last three years are Ray Durham, Edgardo Alfonzo, Marquis Grissom, Matt Herges, Brett Tomko and Michael Tucker. A regular murderer’s row. But wait, there’s more. He’s also added the venerable Felipe Alou, who will turn 71 this May. Apparently Yogi Berra wasn’t interested in the position.

Ok, so it’s evident I don’t like Brian Sabean. He has made a few good moves as GM, including the acquisitions of Jeff Kent and Jason Schmidt, and winning all three coin flips in wildcard home field tiebreakers for the 2004 season. On the whole, though, Barry Bonds has single-handedly saved this man’s job. Were it not for Bonds being one of the top 3-5 baseball players of all time, including unparalleled success beyond the age of 40, Sabean likely would have lasted approximately three years months.

What, exactly, does Barry Bonds mean to this team? Last year, the Giants ranked 29th out of 30 in OBP. In two of the previous three years, Barry Bonds broke the ALL TIME RECORD for OBP. Last season, the Giants ranked 25th in Slugging. In ’04, Bonds had the fourth highest Slugging season ever (he owns the highest season ever, also. Ruth has the other two). Last season, the Giants finished 26th in home runs, with only 45 more than Bonds had in his ’01 season. Last season, the Giants finished last season 26th in walks. Bonds could have given the Cubs a run at 30th last year. I could go on. I’d like to go on. But I won’t, I have work to do for tomorrow. My point is this: the Giants went 9-5 with Bonds in the lineup last year, made a run at the playoffs after 4 months of crappy baseball, and would have won a weak west with a full season of Barry Bonds. As much as I don’t like the guy, or any of the rest of you for that matter, he’s as good as it gets.

So, there’s Bonds, and then there are the clowns that surround him in the lineup. For years people had been suggesting the Giants get somebody to put around Bonds to either drive him in or make pitchers pitch to him. Well, they got a player – Moises Alou – But Bonds was out the majority of the year. And they got Moises Alou. Now I know it’s the skipper’s kid and everything, but the Reds were begging to give Griffey away. Just more boobery from Brian Sabean. The Giants also made a move for offense this off season, acquiring 40 year old Steve Finley (.222/.271/.324 last year) for 32 year old Edgardo Alfonzo (.277/.327/.345). HUH? Other than bringing up the average club age 4 months, what exactly did this this trade accomplish? You’re excessively overpaying some washed up old guy who’s stats are likely overblown due to steroid use (see: massive statistical drop 04 to 05) just because you need to replace Grissom in center. Were you that desperate? Why not trade Alfonzo for somebody that’s 20? They can at least put up the numbers that Finley did, they’re probably a tenth the cost, and I likely wouldn’t hate them nearly as much. I need to stop signing up for teams whose GM’s I despise.


Here’s a breakdown of the rest of the lineup:

Ray Durham 2B (AGE?): This guy’s not a great leadoff hitter, but he’s the best the team has. .356 OBP last year, and he plays a position that a crusty old manager like Filipe Alou would consider putting in the leadoff role. If he’s not there, look for Vizquel and another loss or two in the standings.

Omar Vizquel SS (39): About six years removed from his peak years, Vizquel posted a mildly impressive (this is the Giants we’re talking about) .341 OBP last year. That still sucks, and he’s still really old and way past his prime, but when you look at a few of these fools, you’ll understand why there’s reason to be optimistic.

Barry Bonds LF (41): see above.

Moises Alou RF (39): As much as I despise ol’ chicken-stance pee-hands, he posted a solid year last season. .321/.400/.518 with 19 homers and 13 more walks than strikeouts. They could really use he and Bonds in the 2 and 3 holes instead of the 3 and 4 holes. They just have to see the at bats with this lineup.

Steve Finley CF (40): I guess this Bub just doesn’t understand what the problem with Edgardo Alfonzo and Randy Winn is. Maybe the Giants had a $6 million hole burning in their pocket and wanted to simultaneously bail the Angels out of an awful signing. Who knows. Anyway, this guy sucks, but will still likely be batting 5th, or maybe 6th behind Snow.

Lance Niekro 1B (26): terrible isoBB but decent power (.460 SLG). Will also bring down the average age of the starting lineup by at least a year. Still a strong improvement over J.T. Snow.

Pedro Feliz 3B (31): had a team leading 20 homers and a .422 SLG last season, but he had 102 K’s to only 38 BB’s. That, coupled with a sub-.300 OPB makes him pretty craptastic, and a perfect fit for the Giants.

Mike Matheny C (35): A mediocre major league player (fitting for this roster) expected to only have 6 solid games this season.

Starting Pitching

Jason Schmidt: Schmidt is the clear #1 on this staff and one of the premier pitchers in the national league. Despite a down year last year, still posted 2:! K:BB and 9K/game. Look for Schmidt to put up ace numbers for the next few years as he, at 32, is in his prime.

Matt Morris: Decent #2 signed in free agency with the Giants this off season. Despite a near-career year last year, Morris signed for 2.5 million this year, a very respectable price in this years market.

Rest of the Rotation: Matt Cain, Noah Lowry, Jeff Fasero. Cain is young (21), but, on the whole, meh.

Bullpen

Definitely the strength of this team. Tyler Walker had an up and down year last year as closer, but clearly, they see something in this guy to give him the closer role. Also making appearances in the bullpen are Armando Benitez and Tim Worrell. I’m getting tired of writing this thing.

On the Farm

First, let me say that Mike-Tice-like-meathead Brian Sabean does not enjoy having first round picks. He would much rather sign overpriced, old type-A free agents and forgo his first round pick than actually pick up a young player or two for the future.

1. I’ll edit this later, I’m going to bed

Next up: LAAoACAUSA

How's the hip, The Bub?

Someone couldn't hold his PBR...

Texas Rangers

Next Season:
The Rangers probably do not have the pitching to make the playoffs in 2006. I would not count the Rangers out completely, though. This offense is deadly and could score more runs that any other team in MLB. With even average pitching, I think the Rangers can compete with the A’s and Angels. It was just about a .500 team last year and has done a couple things to improve.
The Rangers are still probably a player or two short.

The Pitching: If at first you don’t succeed. The Rangers starting rotation was awful last year. So, what did new GM John Daniels do? He replaced every single one of them. Here’s how the new rotation will look:

Kevin Millwood: Millwood signed a 5-year, $60 million deal this winter. The deal has an injury clause which can void the last year of the deal, and the deal is back-loaded. Still, this is an immensely risky contract to give a 31 year old pitcher. Millwood had the lowest ERA in the AL last year. While he pitched very well, it was not too far off from previous years, when his ERA was in the fours. Therefore, the ERA was kind of a fluke. I doubt that he will be worth the money he gets in years 3 - 5. But, in this market for pitchers, we cannot overlook the fact that the Rangers could use him for awhile and pawn him off at the deadline for a huge haul.

Vicente Padilla: On the other extreme of Millwod is Padilla, who is coming off the worst year of his career. Even in his worst year, Padilla posted a 4.71 ERA. While he is not the all-star pitcher he used to be, Padilla still is not bad, and he came at a bargain in this market.

Adam Eaton: Eaton has never really had a year that put him on the map. His ERA has fluctuated in the mid-4 area his entire career. His peripheral stats are decent, and he showed flashes of dominance last year. This could be the year he breaks through, though it is going to be tough pitching in Arlington.

Juan Dominguez: He is a 25-year-old with not too much potential. He ended the year in the Ranger rotation in 2005, posting a respectable 4.22 ERA, 2.95 away from Arlington. If all goes well, he’ll be an average starting pitcher.

Kameron Loe: Like Dominguez, he ended 2005 in the Rangers rotation, posting a good ERA and not good peripherals. He, too, will be an average starter at best this year. Again, though, that is all the Rangers can ask for and want. He is still just 24 and a ground-ball pitcher, meaning he is a good fit for this team. I like him better than Dominguez, who will probably be the first displaced starter when the time comes.

The pitching staff may be better, but I have my concerns. I would like to see more sinker-ballers and left handed pitchers, as lefties tend to have more success that righties in Arlington (at least as far as I know). There are no lefties and only one ground ball pitcher in the rotation. Furthermore, the Ranger defense is not good. I’d like to see more strikeout pitchers. Run prevention is going to be a problem again. Just how much, though?

The bullpen is lead by Frank Cordero and newly acquired setup man Akinori Otsuka. Cordero is one of the finest closers in baseball. He is a fantastic power pitcher whose ERA would be in the low-2’s if he didn’t have to pitch in Arlington. Otsuka was one of the best relievers in the NL two years ago. As hitters got accustomed to his odd pitching style, his ERA rose a bit in 2005. Still, Otsuka is a good bullpen arm and could regain some of his success facing a new league. It should be noted though that Otsuka is switching from a pitcher’s park to an extreme hitter’s park. Outside of Cordero and Otsuka, the Rangers have thrown a ton of arms at the bullpen problem, hoping that at least three or four of them turn out good. Given the ridiculous going rate of middle relievers, this is the approach I love to see teams taking to fill bullpens. Fabio Castro is a small young pitcher acquired via Kansas City in the Rule V draft. He has potential but is really not ready for the Show. Jon Leicester came in a deal from the Cubs. Another young arm, he could have a breakthrough year in 2006. Joaquin Benoit is a low-ceiling swingman that could fill in the rotation if needed and take some higher leverage innings in the bullpen. All in all, the bullpen is not very good, but we really do not know what to expect from it in 2006.

The Lineup: I absolutely love the Rangers white-boy lineup. There is a perfect mix of hitters, lefties and righties, on-base and power. It is right up there with the Phillies and Reds in my book. The Rangers finished behind only the Red Sox and Yankees in runs scored last year.

1B Mark Teixeira: Still only 25 years old, Teixeira is a stud switch-hitting first baseman. He continues to get better every season. A lot of his numbers are driven by his home park, where he had an OPS over 1.100 last year. On the road, he barely exceeded an .800 OPS. He hit 17 more home runs at home. Still, he is a very good ballplayer that loves to hit at home, especially when he is hitting left-handed.
2B Ian Kinsler: I will discuss him later.
SS Mike Young: Young posted a .900 OPS last year. His numbers were just as good on the road than at home. He is maybe the best shortstop in baseball.
3B Hank Blalock: Blalock is the same age as Teixeira and came up together touted as the corner infielders of the future. Since then, their careers have progressed in opposite directions. Blalock posted a .900 OPS at home last year and a miserable .600 OPS on the road. His plate discipline needs some work. I would not be surprised to see Blalock dealt to some team like the Twins before the start of the 2006 season. I have heard rumors that Blalock’s struggles are a result of his swing getting messed up because of the desire to hit everything to Arlington’s short porch in right.
C Rod Barajas: He slugged 21 home runs last year, and only 7 of those came at home. He is not much more than a .300 OBP threat, but he has the power to slug in the high-.400’s, making him an above average hitting catcher.
DH Phil Nevin: Nevin is pretty far removed from his prime, but I would not be overly surprised if he managed an OPS above .800 this season.
LF David Dellucci: He had a career year last year: .251/.367/.513. The numbers were not driven solely by Arlington. I am usually skeptical of breakout seasons from 31-year-olds, but the isolated BB and power are VERY impressive. His 29 home runs may have been a fluke, but that awesome walk rate is not.
CF Brad Wilkerson: Wilkerson is an awful lot like Dellucci. He has pretty good home run power, takes a ton of walks, and strikes out a ton/doesn’t hit for high average. Last year was a bad year for Wilkerson, but with less nagging injuries and a much better park to play in, he should get back to .800’s OPS territory.
RF Kevin Mench: Hit 25 home runs last year. His plate discipline is good, though he does not take too many walks. I’d expect something along the lines of a .780 OPS again next year.

Backups: The Rangers have five useful backups, who give the team a good amount of depth and flexibility.
CF/OF Gary Matthews Jr.: Defensively, he is the best outfielder on the team. He actually hit better on the road last year, posting a .756 OPS on the year. He is a very good fourth outfielder, and the Rangers may be better off starting him in center and moving Wilkerson to right. At the very least, Matthews will start every game against a lefty.
3B Marshall McDougal: 27 year old journeyman who has put up +.850 OPS each of the last two years in AAA, with 30 HR in 577 AB. He will have to fight to make the team.
UTIL Mark DeRosa: Useful in that he can play anywhere on the field and post something around or above a .700 OPS.
OF/DH Jason Botts: Three true outcome prospect. There may not be enough room on the roster for him.
2B D’Angelo Jimenez: Jimenez was wrongfully released by the Reds last year and has been signed to a minor league deal in Texas. Jimenez is a bit of a one-trick player; his trick being annoying pitchers and taking a lot of walks. His career .350 OBP should earn him a spot backing up Kinsler at second, but the competition is fierce.

Future Outlook:
The Rangers have quickly become one of my favorite teams. I was champing at the bit to review the organization because it recently hired Jon Daniels, a young stat-head, as its new GM. Daniels has inherited a lineup loaded with talent and has constructed a pitching staff designed to float, something last year’s staff could not do. The Rangers have suffered from some awful contract liabilities in the past few years. The team is just about to come out from the shadow those signings left. After 2006, the Rangers should have some money to spend. The organization has done a good job locking up some of the good young talent it has developed. Offensively, the team looks set for several years to come. On the pitching side, there are enough good young arms in the minors to believe the Rangers can post some respectable team ERA’s in the future. Daniels will probably move quickly and efficiently in building a pitching staff, as so many other stat-head GMs have done. With Daniels at the helm, I can see the Rangers putting up a very good battle with the A’s and Angels over the next five years or so.

Farm System: I think the Ranger farm system is quite underrated. No one puts it in the top 10, but I think it is in there. The Rangers tend to promote patience at the plate and power. So, you can understand my partiality. The system is loaded with live arms with high ceilings. Danks, Volquez, and Diamond (referred to as DVD) are highly regarded. There is a lot of potential here:

1) Ian Kinsler: 23 2B/SS. Kinsler has put up very impressive minor league numbers. He has a good amount of power for a middle infielder with good range. He also walks once per 10 plate appearances, has his strikeouts under control and could be a good bet to hit around .300 at the Major League level. He and Michael Young will be the Rangers middle infielders in 2006.
2) Thomas Diamond: 22 SP. Diamond was the Rangers first pick in 2004 out of the University of New Orleans. In his first calendar year out, he split time between three single-A levels, posting a ridiculous 169/44 K/BB, 4 HR, and about a 2.10 ERA in 127 innings. In the middle of last year, he was promoted to AA, where he struggled a bit with home runs (8) and walks (38) in 69 innings. Still, that is not that bad, especially in a hitter’s park He managed to strike out 68 in those innings. He is a very good pitching prospect.
3) Jason Botts: 25 OF/DH. At 6’6” 250 lbs., Botts hits the living hell out of the ball. He also strikes out a lot. But, get this, he walks about once every 8 AB. You guessed it: I like him a lot more than most. He just looks like he should be playing on the Rangers . . . or the A’s. He is a switch-hitter, who in my opinion would fit very well platooning in the Rangers 2006 outfield. I cannot wait to see him play, especially if he flanks Dellucci and Wilkerson. His defense may be questionable, but the Arlington outfield is one of the easiest to play in the league.
4) John Danks: 20 SP. Danks was a high-schooler whom the Rangers selected with their first pick in the 2003 draft. He is on about the same pace as Tom Diamond; they both played about half a season in AA last year. Danks struggled a little bit in AA, too; but, it should be noted that AA Frisco is a hitter’s park. I am not worried about the AA struggles too much from either Diamond or Danks. In just over two years in the minors, Danks has a strikeout per inning, about a 3/1 K/BB ratio, and one home run allowed per 10 innings. He is young with a good arm and is left handed.
5) Edison Volquez: 22 SP. Signed as an international free agent, Volquez exploded through the Rangers minor league system last year, ending up all the way in Arlington to end the summer. His peripheral numbers are good for the most part. I worry a bit about his ability to keep the ball down and not surrender hits. His control and strikeout numbers are there, but, pitching in Texas, he has to be very cognizant of not letting anyone make good contact. Because he was promoted so quickly, I will try to ignore the 22 runs he gave up in 12.2 MLB innings.
6) Taylor Teagarden: 21 C. Teagarden was a third round pick in the 2005 draft because he was affiliated with Scott Boras. In short-season A-ball, his three true outcome numbers were incredible: 7 home runs, 23 walks, and 32 strikeouts in 96 at-bats. That was good for a 1.061 OPS. I have read that he will miss most of the 2006 season with injury. I do not know if this is true.

Up Next:
Oakland A’s

Previous Team Audits:
San Francisco Giants
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Kansas City Royals
San Diego Padres
Minnesota Twins
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks
Washington Nationals
Houston Astros
Philadelphia Phillies
Florida Marlins
Atlanta Braves
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals

Last Few Playoff Games

Ok, maybe it's because the Packers aren't in the playoffs, but the blog is completely lacking of ANY talk about the playoffs. With only four teams left, I urge you all to post the winners for the AFC and NFC championships AND the Super Bowl along with points for each game. I am open to any sort of PBR betting any of you wish to start.

My Picks:

Carolina over Seattle. Sounds crazy, but Carolina is a great road team in the playoffs and their offense is just explosive. Yes, I agree Delhomme is overrated and Holmgren is a great coach, but Carolina just seems like they have what it takes to go to the Superbowl. I see Alexander being shut down to less than 100 yards and one touchdown. Total points: 45

Pittsburgh over Denver. Let's face it, Vanderjagt hits that field goal and Pittsburgh STILL beats Indi in overtime. Peyton was shut down by the blitzing Steelers and even if Indi got the ball first in OT, those Steelers were still going to win in overtime. Beyond that, Pittsburgh is hot. Still not a Big Ben fan, but between the defense, the offensive line, and the great coaching, Pittsburgh is all over Denver in Denver. Weather won't be any different for the Steelers, so even home field advantage will hardly play in Denver's favor. Also, although Denver's D is spectacular, its offense still relied on several stupid special teams turnovers to beat New England. I say Pittsburgh in one of those close, but not so close games. Pitt wins by at least two scores. Points: 40.

Pittsburgh over Carolina in the Super Bowl. Why? Bettis will go out on top, he'll play like it's his last game (it will be if he makes it to the Super Bowl) and Carolina will be completely thrown off guard by this beast. They'll start to favor the run every play and Big Ben will eventually hurl wounded ducks toward Ward, catching the Carolina D further off guard, while the Bus is on the sideline receiving oxygen. Carolina is a great team, but Pittsburgh is hot, and although Big Ben is inexperienced and overrated, the combined coaching and player experience on the Pitt team will earn them a Super Bowl win.
Points: 54

so there you are...my predictions...argue away

San Francisco Giants

Coming soon, I swear.

Next up: Baltimore Orioles

Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Next Season:
The Devil Rays will not compete next year. Surprise, surprise. But, for the first time in franchise history, the D-Rays have a legitimate shot at winning 71 games. This team will, of course, have to battle with the monsters of the AL East. Luckily, the D-Rays can finish in last place and still have a decent year. This team is looking to the future, and I will give it credit for sticking to the long-term plans.

The Pitching: Last year, the D-Rays had the second worst pitching in baseball, behind only the Royals. The D-Ray staff gave up a league-leading 615 walks. Both the Rays and Royals were in elite company. If you NL fans thought the Reds were bad last year, be glad you didn’t have to watch the Royals or Rays. Baseball Prospectus has a stat called VORP (value over replacement player). The stat measures a player’s output compared to a very low-quality/replacement level player. Most players have a positive VORP. Players that have a negative VORP are essentially players that would be merely adequate at AAA. Get this: The D-Rays VORP for THE ENTIRE PITCHING STAFF was negative. Can you imagine that? That means that a lot of AAA teams had better pitching. Common sense tells us that the staff simply cannot get worse.

If there were an ace on the team it would be Scott Kazmir. Kazmir, a 21-year-old lefty fire-baller, did a very good job last year. He posted a 3.77 ERA, with 174 K and 100 BB in 186 innings. Kazmir was completely rushed to the Majors, so last year is something of which to be very proud. As he got experience, he got better. His ERA before the all-star break was 4.59. It was 2.79 after the break and 1.71 in 31innings in September. All of this is very promising news. What’s perhaps the most promising is that he handled a significant increase to his annual workload without getting hurt in 2005. Kazmir is on the verge of being something really special. He is a great fantasy sleeper pick. He had a VORP of over 30 last year. Without him, this staff could have rivaled some former Tigers staffs to be the worst in baseball history.

Behind Kazmir is Casey Fossum, who literally defines an average Major League starting pitcher. On this team, Fossum is hugely valuable. He would not make about half of the rotations in the league. Fossum is followed by some truly awful pitchers, Mark Henderickson, Doug Waechter, and Seth McClung. Don’t bother getting to know these guys. They won’t be around for long. McClung and Waechter are still young, so there is still some minimal hope of a breakout. Henderickson should consider going back to the NBA or focusing solely on hitting. The biggest improvement in the staff will be the removal of Dewon Brazelton and his 7.61 ERA and -19 VORP last year.

After trading closer Danys Baez and former closer Lance Carter to the Dodgers (a trade I love from the Rays perspective), the bullpen is really not good (not that it would be good even with them, but it is even more thin now), but there are two players worth discussing: Shinji Mori and Chad Orvella.

The Devil Rays signed Mori from Japan for one year and $1.2 million with a $2 million team option in 2007. There are about a million things I like about the Mori signing, but I’ll just name a couple: (1) If history has any significance, Mori will be good. Mori was a top reliever in Japan. No one has ever faced him in America. Most Japanese pitchers have odd deliveries and are tough to hit as a result. The league takes at least a year to adjust to a good Japanese pitcher. (2) At $1.2 million and then $2 million, this is a great bargain. Teams are paying three times as much per year for contracts three times as long on American relievers that have never been above average. Those teams (Cubs) are surrendering top draft picks for the reliever. Tampa has surrendered no draft pick and has a guy with a limitless ceiling. (3) The Japanese media attention money machine. This is not as big of a deal as it used to be when there were only a few Japanese players in the league. Nevertheless, the Japanese fans love their players and buy merchandise, come to games, and are funny. I figure that extra attention has to have some sort of financial value. (4) The signing represents a much larger issue/tactic by the D-Rays. In my Royals review, I stressed how small market teams have to find efficiencies in the market. One way to do so is to have a superior international scouting department. Small market teams cannot load up on talent through MLB free agents. They need to find an alternative. In my opinion, signing the best players out of Japan for relative pennies is the best way to go. The D-Rays are scouting the Caribbean and Asia a lot more now. Another feather in their caps.

If Mori is not the closer on this team, Chad Orvella will be. I’d recommend each for a fantasy pick and expect a breakout season from Orvella. Orvella is a stud, but I doubt you’ve ever heard of him. His minor league numbers were incredible, and he posted a 3.60 ERA in 50 MLB innings last year. In 86 career minor league innings, Orvella has 131 strikeouts, 11 walks, and a 1.47 ERA. He has a very good arm and is still just 25 years old. I have seen him pitch just once, and I was very impressed. If he is closing, get him in your fantasy league. Though he won’t get many save opportunities, he could post a great ERA and help in the K category. He should be available in the 18th round or so.

I should note that the D-Rays blew an opportunity to strengthen the bullpen in the Rule V draft. The Rays selected Steve Andrade, who could be a stellar bullpen arm (MLB-ready, 2.65 career minor league ERA, 357/82 K/BB in 251 innings.) Andrade is way too old to be a prospect, but his numbers cannot be ignored. In their haste to get rid of Brazelton and try their luck on the broken wooden cart that is Sean Burroughs, the Rays traded Andrade to the Padres. I hate the move.

The Lineup:
3B Sean Burroughs: He has no power and is a complete flop. He was the #1 overall prospect in baseball in 2001. Now, he is the poster boy of my argument about obsessing over power numbers when looking at a prospect. Burroughs is not as good as Ty Wigginton, his backup, or BJ Upton, the prospect that should immediately take third base.
SS Julio Lugo: Lugo has developed into a very good shortstop, and people are finally starting to notice. He has excellent plate discipline and speed and is a wonderful defender. His .750-range OPS is valuable given his position, speed, and defense. He will be traded at some point in 2006, as this is his last year under contract.
2B Jorge Cantu: Cantu opened up a lot of eyes by showing great power last year, hitting 28 home runs. He has absolutely no patience at the plate, but can hit for a reasonably high average. He won’t be an on-base threat, but a 2B that can slug almost .500 is valuable no matter how you look at it.
1B Aubrey Huff: Huff’s production has declined over the last two seasons. His OPS is down into the low .700’s. Huff is only 29, but this could still be the effect of an aging ballplayer. At first base, he does not have much value. Look for him to be traded along with Lugo.
C Toby Hall: Like so many other D-Rays hitters, Hall has infuriatingly little patience at the plate. He does not strike out, so he can usually hit close to .300. He doesn’t have much power. But, he’s a catcher, and we expect nothing more than this from a catcher.
LF Carl Crawford: He has great speed, but he is stuck in a corner outfield in Tampa. Crawford does not take walks, but he is a good bet to hit around .300. Sound familiar? His power has increased, and he is still just 24 years old. He steals bases and doesn’t get caught much. Still, as a LF, you want more power and on-base ability. He is OK.
CF Rocco Baldelli: Baldelli is returning from knee and elbow injuries that kept him out of the entire 2005 season. Lucky for him. He lacks plate discipline and doesn’t have overwhelming power, but can hit for some average. Yeah, him too. The knee injury is a major concern, as defense was his forte. He is still just 24 but has a low ceiling unless he develops more power or plate discipline..
RF Delmon Young: I will discuss him later.
DH Johnny Gomes: He is my favorite player on the Rays. He was a 24-year-old rookie last year and put up insane numbers: 348 AB, 21 HR, 39 BB, and 113 K. His OPS exceeded .900, making him the best hitter on the team. I sure hope he doesn’t lose playing time at DH/OF to lesser players. The Rays are probably not going to ignore his low batting averages and high K rates.
Backup Joey Gathright: Gathright is honestly the fastest player I’ve ever seen play. As if the Rays need another one of these, right? Well, Gathright has skills that Baldelli and Crawford do not have. While he will never hit a home run, Gathright will take some walks and will never get caught stealing a base. I don’t like speedy players with no power, unless they are someone like Gathright. Gathright is better than Baldelli because he does what Baldelli should be doing but won’t. If the Rays give him a chance to develop and play in Tampa, Gathright could become a deadly defensive, speed, .390 OBP center fielder.

I really like a couple of hitters in there and some of the hitting prospects. Though the Rays are probably not going to shed the hack-a-thon mentality any time soon, I think the offense still has enough raw potential to be above average. Everyone is so young.

Future Outlook:
Of all the resources in the AL East, the Devil Rays have about 4%, meaning on average each team in the AL spends about 5 times what the D-Rays spend. Some organizations have proven that lack of resources is not fatal. The D-Rays are not such an organization, at least not yet. Historically, the Devil Rays have not produced much home-grown talent. The problem has been twofold: (1) bad drafting, and (2) bad farm system management. In the early years of the D-Rays franchise, the team was obsessed with drafting toolsy high school outfielders. This was a mistake. Thanks to very high picks starting about 5 years ago, the D-Rays have drafted some toolsy players that actually have futures. It is imperative that they keep drafting well. Unfortunately, the D-Rays have had no success in drafting and developing pitchers. Dewon Brazelton was the third overall pick in 2001, taken before numerous MLB all stars. It’s tough to criticize too much because Brazelton was a college arm. However, I greatly question what this organization looks for in its pitchers. The D-Rays still have had no success in drafting pitchers. Wade Townsend was one of the worst picks ever in 2005. He was already a bust within 6 months of being drafted. Like the Royals, the D-Rays have had little patience with prospects, promoting many of them far too quickly. This all was a recipe for disaster.

I honestly do not believe that the D-Rays will ever make or even contend for the playoffs before it ceases to be a franchise. That’s nothing against the D-Rays, honestly. There is just no way for this team to compete with the spenders in the AL East. The D-Rays are developing some really good young hitters. This being said, I think the Rays have a legitimate shot at being .500 within three years. The organization is going to need to figure out how to develop some pitching before it can have respectability.

The most promising thing for the D-Rays is that there was a complete overhaul in the management and ownership of the team this winter. I know very little about the new ownership group, the new manager Joe Maddon, or who is really GM of this team. All I know is that the GM is no longer Chuck Lamar, a miserable failure, and the manager is no longer Lou Piniella. Given what I have observed this winter and the fact that you really cannot get any worse than the old front office, I think the changes will be great for the D-Rays.

Farm System: The Dodgers just traded Chuck Tiffany and Edwin Jackson to the D-Rays for Baez and Carter. For more on them, check my review of the Dodgers. Tiffany is a good prospect, and Edwin Jackson still has some potential.

Despite a lot of undue promotions to the Majors, the Rays still have a very good farm system. The one thing I’d love to see the new management stress is plate discipline. There are too many prospects and current D-Rays that simply refuse to take a pitch. Here are the top D-Rays prospects:

1) Delmon Young: 20 OF. Young is considered by many, not me, to be the best prospect in baseball. Before I criticize the former #1 overall pick, I’ll give you the good stuff about him: he has a lot of power, has been very young for every stop he’s made, and he hits for a good average. In AA last year, he hit .336 with 20 home runs in 330 AB. That’s impressive. Now, the bad part: Young is impatient at the plate and refuses to acknowledge his flaws because of his bad attitude. For a guy with his power, he should be taking more walks. He strikes out an average amount for someone with his power, so I’m not concerned about that. He was noticeably upset when the D-Rays did not call him up to the Majors after his stay in AA. Instead, he was promoted to AAA. Young called the organization “cheap.” I agree with what the Rays did. Young needs to become more patient if he wants to be a star. In AAA, Young began his Hack-a-thon, taking just 4 walks and hitting only 6 homers in 228 AB. He is still a child and has a lot to learn. Hopefully he can learn on the fly, as he will probably be the starting RF for the Rays in 2006. He is a solid fantasy sleeper pick and still a top-5 prospect despite his infuriating attitude.
2) B.J. Upton: 21 SS. Upton was perhaps the top prospect in baseball midway through 2004. Because Upton was given a long look in Tampa in 2004, a lot of people have forgotten he is still just 21 years old. Because of 159 disappointing MLB at-bats, many people lost their faith in Upton. But, Upton was just 19 when he got called up. He spent all of 2005 in AAA, where he posted a .303/.392/.490 line with 44 stolen bases in 57 attempts, 18 home runs, 78 walks and 127 strikeouts in 545 at-bats. Those numbers are in line with everything else he’s done in the minors. His defense has been a problem, but I am going to assume he has improved over the last year with more age and experience. His range is definitely good. He is still a superior prospect in my mind.
3) Wes Bankston: 22 1B. I do not know if it is just because the D-Rays have chosen to promote him conservatively, but Bankston is one of few D-Ray players that have learned how to take walks. The D-Rays should try promoting other prep draft picks slowly. Upton surely benefited from more minor league experience as well. Bankston was promoted to AA last year and posted a .292/.363/.482 line. Those numbers are very much in line with his rookie-ball and A-ball numbers. Bankston is still young and developing more power. He could be the starting 1B for the Rays as early as 2007.
4) Elijah Dukes: 21 CF. I have read quite a few times that Dukes is the most physically impressive player in the minor leagues. He is not just a toolsy outfielder that cannot hit. He has good patience and is developing power. His batting average has been slightly low because of high strikeout numbers. However, Dukes significantly lowered his strikeout rate in AA in 2005. The problem is that Dukes is a larger version of Milton Bradley. I hate the word “intangibles” when describing baseball players. However, I do respect the term “makeup.” Makeup refers to an ability to work, think, and act in a productive way. Almost all MLB players have good makeup, which is why I so loathe announcers that ooze their juice all over David Eckstein and the type. The ones that don’t have character almost always fail before they even make it to the big leagues. Dukes has serious anger issues and trouble with authority. On the field, he works hard, like every other professional athlete. Off the field, he has criminal trouble and serious behavioral issues. His dad is in prison for killing a man and his family troubles were/are unimaginable. I don’t believe in clubhouse cancers or team chemistry, so I don’t worry about Dukes in that regard. But, I do worry insofar as he refuses to listen to management and could seriously kill someone at any moment. That would probably hurt his career. This guy needs some serious religious breakthrough, ala Pedro Cerrano in “Major League II.”
5) Jeff Niemann: 22 SP. Niemann was the first D-Ray taken in the 2004 draft. He was one of the big three pitchers coming out of Rice that year, along with 2005 pick Wade Townsend. Niemann was praised for his 6’9” 260 lbs left-handed build and blazing fastball. I remember reading a lot about injury concerns with Niemann before the 2004 draft. Those injury concerns came to fruition in 2005. Niemann suffered a shoulder injury and pitched only 31 innings in the minors between A and AA. The innings were impressive and Niemann is expected to be healthy for spring training. Shoulder injuries to pitchers don’t just go away, though.
6) Jason Hammel: 23 SP. Hammel is one of very few Rays pitching prospects to not be promoted too quickly. He could be ready for the D-Rays rotation if he has a good spring training. His numbers are not overly impressive, but they are good. He strikes out almost 8 per 9 innings and has shown pretty good control in the minors. He is a prospect because he’d probably be the third best starter on the D-Rays next year.
7) Jamie Shields: 24 SP. If Hammel would be the third best starter on the Rays next year, Shields would be the fourth. In AA last year, he posted a 2.80 ERA with a 31/104 BB/K ratio in 109 innings. He could use some time in AAA and is too old to be considered a really high prospect.

Up Next:
Texas Rangers

Previous Team Audits:
Kansas City Royals
San Diego Padres
Minnesota Twins
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks
Washington Nationals
Houston Astros
Philadelphia Phillies
Florida Marlins
Atlanta Braves
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals

NL Prospect All-Star Team

Having just about gone through reviewing all the NL teams, I thought it would be interesting to put together an all-star team of the top prospects in the NL. I put only 9 pitchers on the team because I really hate pitchers. We'll see how the AL top prospects compare at a later date.

Starters:
C: Jared Saltalamacchia, Atl
1B: Prince Fielder, Mil
2B: Josh Barfield, SD
SS: Stephen Drew, Ari
3B: Ryan Zimmerman, Was
CF: Chris Young, Ari
OF: Carlos Quentin, Ari
OF: Jeremy Hermida, Fla

Pitchers:
RHP: Matt Cain, SF
RHP: Jonathan Broxton, LAD
RHP: Chad Billingsley, LAD
RHP: Anthony Reyes, Stl
RHP: Yusmeiro Petit, Fla
RHP: Cesar Carrillo, SD
LHP: Scott Olsen, Fla
LHP: Tom Gorzelanny, Pit
LHP: Giovany Gonzalez, Phi

Bench:
CF: Lastings Milledge, NYM
3B: Ian Stewart, Col
3B: Andy LaRoche, LAD
SS: Joel Guzman, LAD
C: Josh Willingham, Fla
1B: Conor Jackson, Ari
CF: Felix Pie, Chi
OF: Eddy Martinez-Esteve, SF

Is there anyone else you would put on the team? Who would you take off? Which pitcher do you think is the best prospect? Is there someone on the bench who you would start? Gimme some feedback. I think the AL team will be better, even though there are two less AL teams.

World Baseball Classic

The USA and supposedly all other countries announced their rosters for the WBC tonight. I have yet to find a really good link for the rosters of other countries, but this is the USA roster:

Starting pitchers Jeremy Bonderman, RHP, Detroit Tigers Roger Clemens, RHP, free agent (formerly Houston Astros) Roy Halladay, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays Tim Hudson, RHP, Atlanta Braves Al Leiter, LHP, New York Yankees Jake Peavy RHP, San Diego Padres Andy Pettitte, LHP, Houston Astros C.C. Sabathia, LHP, Cleveland Indians Dontrelle Willis, LHP, Florida Marlins

Relief pitchers Chad Cordero, RHP, Washington Nationals Brian Fuentes, LHP, Colorado Rockies Todd Jones, RHP, Detroit Tigers Brad Lidge, RHP, Houston Astros Joe Nathan, RHP, Minnesota Twins Scot Shields, RHP, Los Angeles Angels Huston Street, RHP, Oakland Athletics Mike Timlin, RHP, Boston Red Sox Billy Wagner, LHP, New York Mets Dan Wheeler, RHP, Houston Astros

Catchers Michael Barrett, Chicago Cubs Paul Lo Duca, New York Mets Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins Chad Moeller, Milwaukee Brewers Brian Schneider, Washington Nationals Jason Varitek, Boston Red Sox

Infielders Craig Counsell, Arizona Diamondbacks Morgan Ensberg, Houston Astros Bill Hall, Milwaukee Brewers Derek Jeter, New York Yankees Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves Derrek Lee, Chicago Cubs Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies Mark Teixeira, Texas Rangers Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies David Wright, New York Mets Michael Young, Texas Rangers

Outfielders Lance Berkman, Houston Astros Barry Bonds, San Francisco Giants Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Devil Rays Johnny Damon, New York Yankees Ken Griffey Jr., Cincinnati Reds Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays

There were a few things that stood out to me that I cannot understand. First, why is Al Leiter on this roster? Second, although I know there needs to be some backup catching, who the hell needs 6 catchers, including Chad Moeller? Same goes for backup infielders. Third, there are a lot of good American players that did not make this list who I do not think backed out of the event. Where is Adam Dunn? Did Jim Edmonds decline or was he omitted? Brian Giles? Paul Konerko? If Johnny Damon starts in a corner outfield, I predict the US will not win the WBC.

I'd feel more confident in the US winning if I wasn't so sure their games would be managed like All-Star games. While we pull Barry Bonds after one AB for a pinch runner, you can bet your ass other countries will not be pulling their stars. There is just enough garbage on this bench to make the tournament interesting. I'd love to compare this roster to the Dominican one. If someone finds that roster, please post it in the comment section or edit this post with it.

Given these players, this would be my dream lineup:
1) Lance Berkman LF
2) David Wright 3B
3) Barry Bonds DH
4) Mark Teixeira 1B
5) Ken Griffey Jr. RF
6) Michael Young SS
7) Jason Varitek C
8) Vernon Wells CF
9) Chase Utley 2B
SP Roger Clemens

Lee and Jones would be the first two pinch hitters, followed by Ensberg. Jones would start over Wright if defense wasn't such a concern. Damon and Crawford would be pinch runners and defensive replacements late in a game. Do we really need the 18 backup middle infielders? Could certainly use some more good pinch hitters.

Most people think the infield would be the weakness in this lineup. I actually love this infield. (Too bad it probably will be Jones, Jeter, Young, and Lee). The outfield is good, but I think that is the real problem. Guys like Edmonds and Dunn would make this team a lot better, no offense to Griff-Dog, Berkman, and Wells. The starting pitching is good. The bullpen is amazing, the relative strength of the team IMO.

EDIT: From more reading, I have noticed that some more names will be added. Who would you all like to see added? Also, I think the roster is reduced down to something like 30 for the actual games. Who would you like to see removed? How much better would Alex Rodriguez make this team?

Kansas City Royals

Next Season:
The Royals have utterly no chance of competing in 2006. If they finish anywhere near .500, I’d be shocked. They could simultaneously have the worst pitching and hitting in baseball. The Royals, who have 210 losses the last two years, are about as disappointing a team as you can find. Do you all remember how excited everyone was for the Royals when they won 83 games in 2003?

The Pitching: The Royals do not know what to do with pitching prospects. Even when a team manages their pitchers well, most pitchers still do not turn out. But when a team manages pitchers poorly, none with work out. The Royals have had no success with their pitching prospects. They have three former big-time prospects that are hopefuls for the rotation in 2006. J.P. Howell was rushed to the Majors, unless you think a pitcher should be called up to the Majors after only 55 innings above A-ball. Zach Greinke was one of top pitching prospects in baseball two years ago. The Royals called him up to the Majors for good as a 20-year-old after throwing only 82 innings above A-ball. Denny Bautista was not rushed to the Majors because he didn’t come up through a different organization. However, he has been unable to stay healthy. Shoulder trouble means trouble for his career. Together, Greinke and Howell posted a 6.00 ERA last year. Can these former prospects recover? Probably not. I should mention that Greinke is the only pitcher with even close to respectable peripheral stats.

The Royals figured that if they piled enough poop up on the mound, fans would be fooled into thinking they signed some stud pitcher. Scott Elarton, Mark Redman, and Joe Mays are very proven pitchers. What does proven mean? Well, to me it means we have a very good idea of what to expect from these guys. What do I expect? Well, those three should give up about 75 home runs, 180 walks, 240 strikeouts, and 300 runs in 460 innings. Nice. Still, it’s better than Jose Lima, the 2005 inaugural Jose Lima award winner.

The bullpen features five guys with very lively stuff: Andy Sisco, Mike MacDougal, Jeremy Affeldt, Leo Nunez, and Ambiorix Burgos. Managed well, these pitchers could form a very good bullpen. Unfortunately, the Royals management has proven to not know what to do with good arms. At what point will this team learn its lesson and stop rushing pitchers to the big leagues?
Leo Nunez and Ambiorix Burgos were called to the Majors far too quickly. Burgos got 12 innings in AA and zero in AAA before getting the call last year. Nunez got 13 innings in AA and zero in AAA. These guys were not and still are not ready for the Majors. None of the aforementioned five players have learned how to pitch. I know it’s hard to wait for prospects when there is so little at the Major League level, but patience is a must with prospects.

The rest of the bullpen figures to be busy with the starting rotation the Royals feature. Joel Peralta was a waiver claim from the Angels. He is another bullpen arm that never got a chance with the Angels. I like the move. I will discuss waiver claims later.

The Lineup: God, what is there to say about this lineup? Last year, the Royals had three hitters that were okay; Mike Sweeney, Matt Stairs, and David DeJesus. The signing of Mientkiewicz, easily the worst 1B in the NL last year (i.e. the NL’s Erstad), blocks both Stairs and Justin Huber, a top prospect, from playing time. Reggie Sanders has had some very nice years in the Majors. But, he is 38 now. 2 years and $10 million is not out of hand, so Sanders could be traded to a contender if he produces this year. If that is the motive in signing him, I applaud the Royals. But, I suspect if he does play well the Royals will hang on to him. 57 wins are better than 55, right? Stop it!

The rest of the Royals lineup consists of AAAA players, or probably more appropriate, AAA players. Mark Teahan, Angel Barroa, Emil Brown, John Buck, Mark Grudzielanek: this is like starting 5 Jack Wilsons. I just do not like this lineup.

Future Outlook:
I cannot begin to explain to you how similar this team is to the 2002 Brewers. The management has made so many mistakes and completely lacks the resources to make up for them. How do you make a team with a thin farm system and terrible major league talent into a winner without being able to spend much money?

The Royals management, led by GM Allard Baird, has consistently refused to look long-term. The signings (Mientkiewicz, Grudzielanek, Mays, Elarton, Dessens, Bako, and Sanders) and trades (Redman and German) this winter are a perfect example. It’s this management style that has squandered a lot of minor league talent. Players are promoted through the minor leagues about twice as quickly as they should be. Do they even have a AAA team? I don’t know. There needs to be an overhaul in this front office. The Royals have produced very little good major league talent lately and have had a top-10 pick in the draft every year since 1997, except for picking 14th in 2004. It took the Brewers three years to get to .500 from the point they were at in 2002, and everything went right for the Brewers. The Royals should follow the Brewers model of patience, and stop signing foolish one-year band aids. Let’s take a look at ways of acquiring talent:

(1) Claiming through Waivers: Because the Royals have such a terrible record, they have first choice at players placed on waivers by teams needing to create room on the roster. There is a lot of talent available through waivers. Think about Matt Wise, Derrick Turnbow, Doug Davis, Dan Kolb, etc. The Royals want older players that are proven to not be good over numerous seasons. If the players do have a suddenly good year, the Royals do not have the players into the future. When Doug Davis had a breakout year, the Brewers had rights to him for four more years. Do you see what I am saying? Work the waiver wire for God’s sake!
(2) Rule V Draft: The Royals had the first pick in this year’s Rule V draft. They drafted a guy and immediately traded him to the Rangers for Esteban German. Stop it! Take 3 guys with plus potential and hope one or two hold their own. We are looking for potential, not versatile backup middle infielders. Andy Sisco was a great Rule V draft pick last year for the Royals. Why not try at more guys like him?
(3) Entry Draft: Don’t take pitchers any more. They have the first pick in the 2006 draft. Pick someone good. Also, take a lot of draft and follow guys. If those draft and follow guys have great years, lure them to the Royals with money. When a guy signs, take the time to promote him to the Majors so that he does not suck his first two years and never learn the skills that the minor leagues teach.
(4) Trades: To get something, you have to give something up. The Royals don’t have anything. When someone does do something right, DO NOT sign him to a contract extension. Pawn him off to another team at a time when that team is desperate. Remember the Wickman – Sexson - Arizona trade tree? You build around the young stars with the potential, not the Mike Sweeni of the world.
(5) Go International: Spend the money on improving international scouting and signing. Do not spend it on Doug Mientkiewicz.
(6) Do not trade any prospects for Mark Redman. Does this need explaining?

The Royals need a better GM, scouting department, and farm director. They have blown the Waiver and Rule V Draft possibilities. They have nothing to trade, and, with the exception of Reggie Sanders, none of the players they signed could be coveted by anyone. Mike Sweeney has a limited no-trade clause and is making $11 million per year. He will not be easy to trade. The Royals simply have to draft a great player in 2006. Unfortunately, first overall picks usually ask for bonuses in the $5 million range. I honestly feel bad for the Royals. Sabermetric GM candidates across the nation have to be champing at the bit to try their methods with this team. It’s as hard of a challenge as a GM could find. At least the Royals don’t have any huge contract liabilities other than Sweeney’s to worry about. Sweeney will earn $11 million each of the next two years. I guess that is 30% of the team’s budget.

Farm System: With the draft picks the Royals have had, you’d expect more than this. Still, though, the Royals have some talent in the minors. The Royals system is weak partially because they have promoted so many players to the Majors in the last year that should still be playing in the minors. They are lacking depth but have 3 good hitting prospects with high upsides. Those three are top-100 prospects. Here are the top Royals prospects:

1) Billy Butler: 19 3B/DH. Let’s just say the Royals are promoting Butler aggressively. Not long after jumping low-A and playing just 92 games in high-A, the Royals threw the 19-year-old Butler on the AA roster, where he will probably start 2006. Rumor has it that his defense is awful. To that, I say “he is 19!” Defense is one thing that progresses dramatically in the minors. He needs time Royals! He held his own in 112 AA at-bats, posting an .880 OPS. There is nothing not to like about him offensively, especially when you consider his numbers in relation to his age at each level. He has plus power, plate discipline, and batting average. If they rush him, they will ruin him. The Royals have no room at DH, so they better work on that defense.
2) Justin Huber: 23 1B. He is Australian and quite good. I don’t get why he isn’t in the Majors yet. No kidding. Now, the Royals are taking too long to promote a prospect. With Mientkiewicz, Stairs, and Sweeney standing in his way, Huber is not going to get the full-time role he deserves in 2006. He will start the year in AAA. He got 78 AB for the Royals at the end of last year, and he struggled to adjust a bit. Still, he has excellent plate discipline and ability to hit for average. His power is not bad, but you’d probably want a little more from a first baseman. But, he is 6’5” and young, so the potential for more power is physically there.
3) Alex Gordon: 21 3B. Alex Gordon was probably the best player available in the 2005 draft, taken second overall from the University of Nebraska. No professional experience yet, but he should be good. We’ll see when he probably skips the minors altogether and starts for the Royals in 2006. Ah, maybe that’s too much to expect.
4) Chris Lubanski: 20 OF. Lubanski was the fifth overall pick in 2003. He has good power, but it’s hard to judge just how good considering that he played in High Desert last year. Brewers fans know about the absurd park effects there. Lubanski’s plate discipline leaves a lot to be desired. He doesn’t walk nearly enough and strikes out too much to expect a great batting average.
5) Billy Buckner: 22 SP. As far as I know, he is not related to the infamous Bill Buckner. Buckner is probably the best pitching prospect the Royals have left. He is good but not great, and he still hasn’t reached AA, meaning he should be in Kansas City to start 2006. I’m kidding again, sort of.

Up Next:
Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Previous Team Audits:
San Diego Padres
Minnesota Twins
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks
Washington Nationals
Houston Astros
Philadelphia Phillies
Florida Marlins
Atlanta Braves
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals

San Diego Padres

The 2006 Padres: If they weren’t in the NL West, I could confidently tell you that the Padres have no chance whatsoever of making the postseason. Of course, the division is wide open again, so the very mediocre Padres have a chance to repeat their unimpressive 2005 division championship season.

Winter: They have been very active this winter. Insanely active. It’s hard to estimate whether or not they got any better though. I don’t think the offense could have possibly gotten worse. It looks like they’ve spent a large chunk of money to become marginally better.
Baltimore signed catcher Ramon Hernandez to a 4 year deal. The word in San Diego was that the Padres would either sign Hernandez or Trevor Hoffman. They signed Hoffman. I disagree with this move and I’ll tell you why. Hoffman is getting old and has had serious injury problems in the recent past. SD could have tried sliding Clay Hensley or Scott Linebrink into the closer spot for a fraction of the cost. Linebrink is a guy that has found his way onto my fantasy teams the past 2 seasons now. He’s is younger than Hoff, can toss more innings, and his numbers are simply the best in their pen. I really like Linebrink and I think he’d do just fine in the closer spot. Hoffman is guaranteed $13.5 million over two seasons, and with an option and incentives could make up to $23 million over 3 seasons.
Doug Mirabelli in exchange for Mark Loretta. I don’t really understand this deal. Mirabelli is an average to just below average catcher. Why not use Paul Ross? He’s still young and will probably do exactly what MIrabelli will do offensively. MLB.com sites leadership as a key reason Mirabelli was brought in. Wow, nice. I guess the Padres really thought they needed somebody with a big name and leadership skills at catcher. They should have signed Hernandez. Loretta will be replaced by Mark Bellhorn and Josh Barfield. Oh, and Bellhorn had an awful seasonin '05. The Yank’s outrighted him to AAA, severing ties and the Padres signed him.
Dewon Brazelton was the 3rd overall pick in 2001. He was also selected by Chad, of Wisconsin Health and Fitness club in his 2004 fantasy draft. He has crashed and burned in the big leagues. Tampa Bay gave up on him after he posted an ERA of about 8 last season. The Padres signed him and will try him out in spring.
Picking up soft tossin’ lefty Shawn Estes is probably the most harmless thing the Padres have done, next to giving Brazelton a shot. He’s a Padre killer, posting a career 3.50 ERA and going 13-5 against the team. He’s a bottom of the rotation guy and they aren’t paying him much more than $1 million. He’ll have to compete for that 4th or 5th spot.
Old man Vinny Castilla will play 3rd for the Padres this year. They traded underachieving SP Brain Lawrence to the Nationals for Castilla. 3rd base was hole they needed to fill.
Brian Giles signed a 3 year deal worth $30 million. This looks like an awful lot of money, but Giles is solid, and carried the offense last year.
Mike Cameron in exhange for Xavier Nady. Why? GM Kevin Towers loves Cameron. Cameron will make something like $10 million more than Nady over 2 years and is an injury waiting to happen. Oh, and he’s not that good. Why the love affair? I’m not sure.
Chris Young, Termel Sledge, Adrian Gonzalez in exchange for Adam Eaton and Okini Otsuka. This looks pretty even, but who knows. It depends on how/if Gonzalez ever works out. Otsuka was a solid reliever and Eaton wasn’t awful.
Other additions/signings : Todd Greene (C), Alan Embree (RP), Geoff Blum (3B), 1 year, Doug Brocial (RP), 1 year, $1 mil., EY (util) $1 mil, Woody Williams (SP): Option vested.

The Lineup: The Padres had one of the worst lineups in ‘05. They were 27th in the majors in runs scored. It’s looking a little better this season, but not much. Here’s how I’d line ‘em up.

1. LF- Dave Roberts: Roberts isn’t a bad leadoff hitter when he’s healthy, but he has no power. .356 OBP last year. He’ll be backed up by Terrmel Sledge, Ryan Klesko, and probably Ben Johnson in left
2. SS- Khalil Greene: Greene is still really young. He’s a lot like JJ Hardy at the plate in that he has some pop and has some potential to improve. He needs to learn how to take some walks (only 25 in over 450 PA’s last season). He could be an above average hitting SS if he just learned some plate discipline. Mike Cameron will probably end up hitting second, and Greene below Castilla in the 6 spot.
3. LF- Brian Giles: Giles is a super stud. Although he won’t hit 30 homers any more, he is an on base machine. He should also be developing old man strength, something often seen in bar league softball. He walked twice as much as he struck out last season. His OPS was over .900. He is their best hitter and should be hitting third.
4. 1B/corner outfield: Ryan Klesko: Klesko is a solid player, but not an overpowering first basemen. His OPS has hovered just below .900 the past two seasons. He lead the team with just 18 HRs last year. He’ll cost $9 mil. Adrian Gonzalez will probably back him up at 1b.
5. CF- Mike Cameron: He’s speedy and has some power, but his OPS should be under .800. That’s still not awful for CF. He’s a serious injury waiting to happen. Cameron is a poor man’s Griffey, but he’s not nearly as talented as the Griff Dog.
6.3b- Vinny Castilla: Do not be fooled by all those Vinny Castilla lovers out there. 1st, Vinny is getting old and his skills are declining. 2nd, he was never very good to begin with. His career OBP is .324. He should hit about 14 HRs, strike out twice as much as he walks and still bat 5th or 6th in this lineup. I could see them going for R.T.M Branyan as a possible backup, since Castilla is a righty, and Geoff Blum is switch hitting, but trash.
7. 2b: Josh Barfield: They need to get this guy on the field. He was their 4th round pick in 2001 and is one of their most major league ready prospects. He has a career .300 AVG in the minors and hit more than 15 homers in each of the last three seasons. He won’t be an impact player this season, but neither will Mark Bellhorn. Get him out there.
8. C: Mirabelli: Don’t expect much here. He’s here to catch. Oh, and to lead of course.

Bench- Terrmel Sledge, Mark Bellhorn, Geoff Blum, Adrian Gonzalez, David Ross, Bobby Hill, Ben Johnson. These guys aren’t too bad, and they’re really cheap. Adrian Gonzalez is obviously the biggest name here. He was the 1st overall pick in 2000, but hasn’t shown too much, even in the minors. He could end up in AAA to start the season.

Hitting Prospects: There are a few names of interest in SD’s system. Besides these guys, fans and critics aren’t very high on the Padres’ farm system. Top 5 hitting prospects:

1. OF- Ben Johnson: He was a 4th round pick of the cards in 1999. He started playing rookie ball at age 17 and he’s now 24. Last year at AAA and in SD in September, he hit 28 HRs and had a .952 OPS. If he doesn’t make the team, he’ll get called up when Cameron and Roberts get hurt.
2. 2b- Josh Barfield: (see above)
3. 3b- Chase Headley: 2nd round pick in 2005. .1200 OPS in college in his last year at Tennessee. He has awesome plate discipline. 60 walks and 20 strikeouts in his final NCAA season.
4. 1b/Of- Paul McAnulty: 12th round pick in 2002. He’s 24 and got called up last September. Hits for average and a little power. He’s a long shot to make the team this season.
5. OF Freddy Guzman: This guy is freakin’ fast. He stole 53 bases in 60 attempts between AAA and MLB last season. He doesn’t hit for power or average, like almost every other speedster, but plays the outfield well.

Rotation: Outside of Peavy, the Padres have a very shaky rotation. The bottom of the rotation won’t be worked out until spring training and it is likely that they will try several arms at the bottom, just like a lot of teams. Here are the guys that you’ll likely see starting for the Padres in 2006:

1. Jake Peavy: For those you that don’t know, this man is young, throws hard, and strikes out a lot of guys.
2. Chris Young: Got off to a fast start last season with the Rangers. He tossed a 4.26 ERA in the AL, which should figure to be lower in the NL. He’s slated as #2 starter, which seems like a stretch, but not on the Padres. He’s still only 26.
3. Woody Williams: Woody is getting old. If his stats follow the curve they’ve been sliding down the last few years, he won’t strike out 85 and won’t pitch more than 140 innings.
4. Shawn Estes: Overhand curve man is a relative bargain at $1 million/ year for a relief pitcher. He’ll help the Padres most by not pitching against them this year. His career ERA is 4.71 and he’s also getting old.
5. Chan Ho Park: I’ll be honest, I don’t know who is paying this guy after the Nevin trade. I do know that he made $15 million last year and is complete trash. He signed a fat contract after pitching well in LA and bombed in Texas. Highlights included getting hurt every year from 2002-2004.
6. Brazelton: He’ll definitely be given a shot, but wow, I can't see him doing well.

Bullpen: The bullpen is average, but has 3 studs. It severely lacks lefties.

Hoffman: Still a pretty good closer. (Right Handed)
Linebrink: He’s an elite setup guy. His adjusted runs prevented from scoring last season was 25.6. Hoffman’s was 9.9. His ERA was 1.83, his WHIP 1.06. He averages a strikeout per inning pitched, and threw in 30 more innings than Hoffman. Why didn’t he get the closer job? He’s making less than $1 million! Ugh. (Right Handed)
Clay Hensley: Emerged last season and should be a very solid 7th inning setup guy. 1.70 ERA and ZERO HRs given up in 47 innings. He was a top prospect in their organization. (Right handed)
Doug Brocail: He’s old, and doesn’t have too much left in the tank. Probably on mop up duty. (Right handed)

Obviously, the Padres need some left handed bullpen help. Besides Estes, they literally have nobody on the roster that is a lefty with major league experience.
Rusty Tucker: left handed reliever. 4.00 Era in the minors. He’s on the 40 man roster. Could be on the team out of necessity. He strikes a lot of guys out.
Sean Thompson: left handed, but being developed as a starter. He was a 5th round pick, but hasn’t had much success in the minors. 1.36 minor league WHIP. Supposed to have a nice curveball.

3 other pitching prospects:

1. Cesar Carillo: 1st round pick last year. Made it all the way to AA in his first minor league season. Over 10 k/9. Ranked as their #1 prospect by Baseball America. He’s supposed to have a killer fastball
2. Tim Stuaffer: 1st round pick in 2003. Right handed and doesn’t strike guys out. His AAA ERA is over 4, but he moved quickly through the system after being selected out of college. I don’t like him much, but he’ll have a chance to make the rotation in spring.
3. Jared Wells: 6-4” right handed starter. 3.74 ERA in 3 minor league seasons. I don’t know much about him, but the writers seem to like him. Obviously, this doesn’t mean much.

Next up: Cleveland Indians

Minnesota Twins

Next Season:
The Twins are pretty easy to sum up. Very good pitching. Poor hitting. Last year, we watched the Indians and White Sox leapfrog the Twins into positions of power. The Twins have made marginal improvements this off-season. Those improvements are unlikely to put them ahead of the White Sox and Indians. Competition for the AL Wild Card will be fierce, and it does not look overly promising for the Twins in the 2006 season.

The Pitching: The rotation starts with the best pitcher in baseball and the Inaugural 2005 AL Walter Johnson Award winner, Johan Santana. Santana has steadily improved his walk rate each of the past four years, but it really hasn’t even mattered. Every year his ERA has been between 2.61 and 3.07. In the American League, that’s ridiculously low. He has shown consistent ability to strike out more than one guy per inning and throw about five times as many strikeouts and walks. He is still only 26 years old, so it’s not unreasonable to expect even better things in 2006. He is probably the only pitcher I’d take in the first round of a fantasy draft. When his career is over, he may have been the best Rule V draft pick ever.

Behind Santana are many other capable starting pitchers. Brad Radke is obviously one of my favorites. He surrendered just 23 walks in 200 innings last year. He is still a great pitcher, though I wouldn’t expect his ERA to be much lower than 4.00 in the AL. I always loved Radke because I thought he had the most unbelievable control of any pitcher in baseball. I was wrong. Carlos Silva surrendered just 9 walks in 188 innings last year. Silva doesn’t strike out too many, though he isn’t a total pitch-to-contact pitcher. Regardless, 9 walks! He had a 3.44 ERA last year. If he walks less than a guy per two games again in 2006, I’d expect a similar ERA. I love the Twins rotation.

At the back end of the rotation, there will be some competition this year. Kyle Lohse is serviceable, if not above average in the American League. But, his ceiling is low. He will start spring training in the rotation, but could lose his spot to some promising youngsters. Lohse is still just 27 years old, so the Twins should not give up on him too quickly. Francisco Liriano, one of the best pitching prospects in baseball could be major league ready. I would not be surprised though if the Twins took their time with Liriano like they have all their other prospects. I’d expect them to be unwilling to start Liriano’s service clock too soon. Liriano could get called up at the mid-season mark and get some seasoning in the bullpen, like the Twins gave to Santana in his first couple years. The Twinks are ALWAYS money conscious. Other prospects that could get the call are Boof Bonsor or J.D. Durbin. Scott Baker was a top pitching prospect for the Twins and was called up towards the end of last year. Baker should fit in nicely with the rest of the rotation. He is a 24-year-old whose best asset is his control. In 53.2 innings last year with the Twins, he walked 14 guys, struck out 32, and carried a 3.35 ERA. Those are some very good numbers for a rookie pitcher. Expect Baker to crack the rotation to start 2006. The Twins already stalled his service clock a year.

The Twins bullpen also figures to be elite. Joe Nathan came to the Twins in The Great Giants Fleecing of ‘03. Since that time, he has been the second best reliever in the American League. He is a rare combination of extreme power/strikeout pitching and ground ball pitching. You don’t get much better than Nathan. The Twins top setup man is Old ‘Roids Rincon. Rincon has been maybe the best setup man in the AL the last two year, steroids be damned. He is very similar to Nathan: a lot of strikeouts and a lot of ground balls. He did have surgery to remove some bone chips in his elbow, but he’ll probably throw some roids down and be back strong in 2006. He is one of the non-closer relievers I put on my fantasy teams.

Jesse Crain will handle a lot of innings in 2006. He worries me a bit despite his 2.71 ERA last year. In 80 innings, he had 29 walks and just 25 strikeouts. Who is he, Dan Kolb circa 2004? Like Kolb, Crain was always a strikeout pitcher. In the minors, he posted ridiculous strikeout numbers. I can’t figure him out. He has a great arm, so he doesn’t give up many hits. So, while I don’t expect him to blow up in 2006, I think an ERA as low as 2.71 is unlikely if he is only striking out 3 guys per nine innings. Still, he is just 24 years old, so he should improve.

The rest of the Twins bullpen is not impressive, but it really does not need to be. The Twins have always shown a willingness to throw their late inning relievers for over an inning and use them as much as they need to in a given stretch. The Twins rotation goes late into ballgames. Very late. The starters do not have high pitch counts because they refuse to walk guys. In the AL, the Twins never need to pinch hit for a pitcher. If a pitcher has to leave before the 7th, chances are he got hit hard. If one of their pitchers gets hit hard, the Twins will not win. Their offense is not good enough. So, bottom line, the bullpen is a great fit for the Twins’s needs.

The Lineup: The Twins lineup is mediocre. It has potential, but that potential requires the blossoming of three young players: Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Jason Kubel; the killer Jays. I will discuss Kubel a bit in prospect section. Everyone knows Mauer. He is a very good catcher. The problem is that he cannot keep his knees from hurting. His future at catcher is very much in the air. Mauer has very good on-base skills. However, the power we were promised from him has not yet arrived. He hit just 9 home runs last year. If he can stay healthy and stay behind the plate, he is still a very good player. With power, he could turn into the best catcher in baseball.

Morneau had a very disappointing first full season in the Majors last year. His year featured him getting hit in the face with a pitch. If you ask me, that pitch was a principle reason for his struggles. He was a great hitter in the minors, who, like so many Twins prospects before him, was kept from the Majors longer than needed to prevent the running of his service clock. Morneau batted just .239 last year. In the minors, he was consistently around .300. The most promising thing about him is that he still showed good power. His isolated power number was .200, meaning his slugging percentage was .200 points higher than his batting average. He showed OK plate discipline, which figures to improve a bit. He is still just 24 years old and lacks a lot of major league experience. What’s more, he is Canadian, meaning he will likely be a late bloomer. I still like Morneau a lot, and I think he could be a major sleeper in 2006. He probably will not start against lefties.

The Twins biggest addition this season is losing Jacque Jones. I am pretty serious about that. Well, actually, the biggest addition is Luis Castillo. Castillo has proven to be a very good second baseman because of his ability to get on base. I liked the acquisition of Castillo an awful lot. He fills a position that the Twins have been highly below average in since Chuck Knoblauch roamed the Socialist Dome. While I do not agree with Ron Gardenhire’s sentiments that Castillo will add something like 135 wins, I figure he could add 5; that is a lot.

At DH and backup first base, the Twins have Matt LeCroy and Rondell White. White, the oft-injured one, is a decent hitter. His role with the Twins should be limited, and he is a nice player to have off the bench. LeCroy can play a little catcher and isn’t the worst option platooning three or four times a week with Rondell White and Justin Morneau.

In center, Torii Hunter will try to come back from an ugly ankle injury. He has been pretty good the past few years, but overrated in many respects. His defense is not the same as it used to be, and his offensive numbers have hovered around the .800 OPS. So, he is good, but I’m still hoping to one day see his plate discipline get better.

The left side of the field is the problem for the Twins. In left field, Shannon Stewart will start until he gets injured. Stewart had the worst year of his career last year, suffering a .100 drop in his OPS. He doesn’t have great power and is probably a below average left fielder unless he can completely revert back to his pre-2005 form. He will be 32 this year, so I am starting to get concerned that isn’t going to happen. Backing up Stewart and the entire outfield is Lew Ford. Ford, like Stewart, just doesn’t have good enough power to pass as a corner outfielder.

At third is a huge hole in the lineup. Tony Batista brings his goofy-ass batting stance back from Japan. In his last 1,200 and 4,300 major league at bats, he has not had an OBP at or above .300. He is a pitiful choice. Michael Cuddyer, an average third baseman, figures to take over full-time 3B duty pretty quickly. Cuddyer’s .382 OBP against lefties would look very nice in a platoon with Russell Branyan and his .950 OPS against righties, wouldn’t it?

At short, the Twins will start Jason Bartlett, who is hopefully up for good now. The Twins have been ridiculous about Bartlett and his service clock. The guy is 26 now and has been better than Twins starting shortstops for three years running. Bartlett has good plate discipline, and has shown good ability to hit for average in the minors. While he doesn’t have power, he could still be a respectable shortstop.

The Twins offense is depending on the progress of Bartlett, Mauer, Morneau, and Kubel an awful lot. The lineup does not feature a single proven slugger. At best, I think the Twins could be in the middle of the pack in terms of runs scored. With their pitching, that could mean serious trouble for the rest of the AL Central. The Twins should not be counted out, but their chances at the postseason still seem small.

Future Outlook:
The Twins do not have the money to spend, so it is going to be very difficult for the Twins to improve their lineup. While the Twins figure to have good pitching for some time to come, I cannot see how they will find an above-average lineup. It will be tough to make the playoffs in the next couple of seasons, as the Indians figure to just get better and the White Sox suddenly have a fan base and money to spend.

Farm System: I don’t like the Twins system as much as most others. The Twins have a lot of pitching prospects, and equally as few good hitting prospects. Of the pitching prospects, most have still not cracked AA. You know what I think of low-level pitching prospects. Scott Baker, who figures to battle for the Twins rotation in 2006, barely graduated from the list last year. Twins hitting prospects, like many of the major league Twins hitters, lack plate discipline and power. Because of recent graduates and the weakness of hitting prospect, the Twins are probably not a top-10 farm system any more. The Twins probably have 2 top-100 prospects. Here are the best Twins prospect in my opinion:

1) Francisco Liriano: 22 SP. Considered by most to be the best left-handed pitching prospect in baseball. A lot of that has to do with his similar appearance and pitching style to another Twin, Johan Santana. It would be wholly inappropriate to assume Liriano will turn out as good as Santana, but he is still a really good prospect. He split 2005 between AA, AAA, and the majors. In 167.2 innings between AA and AAA, he had 204 K and 50 BB with 10 HR allowed, carrying an ERA around 2.50. In 23 major league innings, he struck out 33, walked 7, but did surrender 4 home runs and 15 runs. Still, that is not bad for a first 23 innings. He could and really should start the year in the Twins rotation. This is one guy that needs to get the call up. Screw the service time concerns. He is ready. As soon as he gets called up, snatch him onto your fantasy roster.
2) Jason Kubel: 23 OF. Kubel was one of the best outfield prospects in baseball before missing the entire 2005 season with a knee injury. 2006 is a vital year for Kubel. He always commanded the strike zone very well and hit for good power and very good batting averages. The Twins have opened up a spot in the outfield for Kubel to step into in 2006. I expect a sluggish start and a good finish for Kubel. He wasn’t a prospect because of speed, so the knee injury should not cripple his future.
3) Adam Harben: 22 SP. Harben is a good arm ready to make the jump to AA next year. He is the best of a group of A-ball pitching prospects.
4) Boof Bonsor: 24 SP. Bonsor was a former first round pick in the infamously impotent 2000 draft pool. Apparently, his velocity has plummeted since that time. Nevertheless, he has progressed through the minors and posted pretty good numbers in AAA last season. There is still a chance he makes the Twins rotation in 2006.
5) Matt Garza: 21 SP. Garza was a first round pick in the 2005 draft. He was a college pitcher, and he pitched 75 impressive innings in A-ball after signing.
6) J.D. Durbin: 23 SP. Was a top pitching prospect of the Twins before a somewhat disappointing 2005 season. He will probably start the 2006 season at AAA again, but should find a role with the Twins before the year is done.

Up Next:
Kansas City Royals

Previous Team Audits:
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks
Washington Nationals
Houston Astros
Philadelphia Phillies
Florida Marlins
Atlanta Braves
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals

Gambling? The Bub? No . . .

After betting (and losing) on ND in the fiesta bowl, I had some leftover money in an online sportsbook (though not as much as it should have been). Now the intelligent thing to do would have been to take out the left over and plug it back into my bank account. What did I do? Played poker. Lots of poker. And I won. Pretty big. Enough to go back to the sportsbook to consider more frivolous betting. Where did I wind up? MLB futures, where they have lines on who will win the 2006 world series. I put down 16.67 on the Brewers laying 60-1 (do the math, 1k if i win . . .) and I still feel like it was the smartest bet on the table. Here's why. If they make the playoffs, they have a 1 in 8 shot, so for the bet to pay off, they need to have 15 to 2 odds of making the playoffs. I feel that is a distinct possibility, thus the bet. Here's where the relevance of the post comes in: since we're going through these team audits, I wanted to get everybody's take on the vegas odds for the winner of the 06 world series. Here they are:
Anaheim: 10/1 Arizona:55/1
Atlanta: 18/1 Baltimore: 60/1
Boston: 9/1 Chicago Cubs: 12/1
White Sox: 13/2 Cincinnati: 60/1
Cleveland: 14/1 Colorado: 125/1
Detroit: 70/1 Florida: 70/1
Houston: 18/1 Kansas City: 250/1
Los Angeles: 28/1 Milwaukee: 60/1
Minnesota: 22/1 New York Mets: 8/1
New York Yankees: 4/1 Oakland: 14/1
Philadelphia: 25/1 Pittsburgh: 100/1
San Diego: 30/1 San Francisco: 17/1
Seattle: 75/1 St. Louis: 11/2
Tampa: 150/1 Texas: 38/1
Toronto: 20/1 Washington: 60/1

Here are the bets I like:
Anaheim going off at 10/1. I think they have a legit shot. They would have been even better with Manny Ramirez, though.
Cleveland at 14/1. I may actually put money on this one too. Really like it
Philly at 25/1. How can they be three times less likely than the mets to compete next year?
San Diego at 30/1. For no other reason than the formula than the Brewers' above. They HAVE to have a 7/2 chance of winning that division.
Atlanta at 18/1. proabably because of my audit . . .

Bets I don't like (there are a lot of them):
BOTH Chicago teams
Houston
Florida (this is relative. no chance they win no matter what, but they are not better than anybody, royals and rockies included)
Mets (must be garunteed to make playoffs)
San Francisco
Toronto (see above formula)
New York Yankees (see recent post season success

What are your thoughts? and would you put money on Cleveland?