Doug Davis to Arizona
The Brewers traded Davis, Eveland, and Krynzel to Arizona today for Johnny Estrada, Greg Aquino, and Claudio Vargas. My initial, off the cuff reaction is that this fills several needs for the crew in the upcoming season. I don't like Estrada very much (13 walks in 414 AB's in 06), but those relievers definitely fill a need for us. I think with all of the players that will be competing for spots in the pen next season - Wise, Turnbow, Capellan, Aquino, Shouse, Vargas - we should be able to find a good set-up man.
Further, we were clearly never going to do anyting with Krynzel, and probably lost patience with Eveland. Davis is a solid starter, but his insistence on nibbling the corners even when he was behind in the count was frustrating last season. The biggest question mark that remains is who will be the fifth starter next season? I feel like the Brewers may offer Ohka now, as they do have some money to spend, esp. with Davis' salary off the books. If not Ohka, they may scramble and sign somebody like Randy Wolf. Biggest winner in the deal? Carl Villanueva. Virtually guaranteed a starting spot next season. Lets hear what you guys think.
Davis to Arizona
posted by Brew City Bub @ 3:54 PM
12 comments
12 Comments:
I don't really like the deal. It's not a terrible one, but I don't think it will help the Brewers.
Davis is a bit better than Vargas in my opinion. Vargas will be a starting pitcher for the Brewers. Of course, Vargas is cheaper and won't be a free agent for two more years, at least as far as I know. So, Vargas makes up for the loss of Davis for the most part. But the thing is that I just don't like Johnny Estrada. He's not a good defensive catcher, and he constantly swings trying to hit singles on the first pitch. His bat is decent enough for a backup catcher. I mean, he's obviously better than Moeller. But he hit into 17 double plays last year, and I know his plate approach is going to get tiresome very quickly.
Greg Aquino is a guy I'm glad they acquired, but only for his potential upside. He has a pretty high ceiling because he has a good arm. But he's 28 already and doesn't have a statistical track record that inspires confidence. He's basically another Turnbow.
Krynzel is definitely a non-factor. He would have been cut after Spring Training.
Would Aquino and Estrada be a good trade straight up for Dana Eveland? I don't think so. But at least it would be close. Add to that, though, the fact that Davis is probably better than Vargas, and the deal isn't one that makes me happy. The Brewers didn't get any younger and again traded away one of their top prospects. It's the loss of Eveland that upsets me more than anything else, just as it was the loss of Nelson Cruz in the Carlos Lee deal that really bothered me. Eveland's minor league track record was very good. He struggled a bit in the Majors and the Brewers definitely were upset with him over his weight. But he is still a fine pitching prospect. Quite frankly, the Brewers need more major league ready pitchers like Eveland. I wouldn't want to put all my eggs in the "Carlos Villanueva" or "Sheets will stay healthy" basket.
Bottom line: the Brewers gave away far more potential upside than they received. Davis and Eveland could put together fine seasons/careers. I just don't see Estrada or Vargas being above average, and I doubt Aquino will break out considering his fly ball tendencies. I've been much more upset about other trades, but I'm having trouble not worrying that this will be a trade that the Brewers will regret.
Barring another signing, Vargas is your 4th starter. His numbers are comparable to Davis and he won 12 games last year. He doesn't pitch as many innings, but he was acquired to fill a spot in the rotation.
Estrada is overrated, but he still is an big improvement to our catching situation. Statistically, I could end up missing Davis if he reverts back to his 2005 form. I certainly will NOT miss watching him pitch. With all these prospects supposed to be making an impact relatively soon, I'm not going to miss Eveland. My opinion: he might eventully develop into a decent bullpen arm.
Ah well, not huge, but decent. People who thought we would get a middle order bat for Davis were delusional. I still want to sign a 3-4 guy and let Villy and Vargas fight for the 5th spot. That, and sign Lofton to play Center, ditch Mench and Clark anyway possible, and figure out who can platoon with Jenkins. I want Hall starting at 3rd or Short.
I think this is part of the team's desire to Latin Americanize things to go along with the new wiener race participant.
Actually, our catching has been mediocre for years. When is the last time we had a guy who could either hit or throw someone out? With Estrada, at least we have a guy in the lower part of the lineup who can hit the ball. With no one on base in the6, 7 and 8 spot last year how many times would Estrada have hit into a DP? C'mon....17 DP balls is lame when Moeller and our pitcher are a sure 6 - 8 outs every game....we just reduced that to 5 - 6 per game instead. Think about it.
We still need middle relief and whether this helps remains to be seen, but last year, with Sheets and Ohka hurt, our middle relief was exposed as being really shitty, so why not take a chance. Bub and I talked about Davis yesterday and he nibbles the shit out of the corners instead of just throwing strikes....I think the K to BB of each of these guys is decent and while we give up Eveland, I kinda like the trade more than I hate it.
One last thing....with all the filthy money being paid to the better players, we might get some team looking for a left handed hitter who can play a good right field. Jenkins' $7 million doesn't look so large any more and we might find a sucker to take him off our hands. Remember, our infield will be better with the injured guys coming back.....its our pitching that blows. Sheets is the Kerry Wood of the Brewers. We should never offer him a long term deal.
I forgot about not wanting to watch DD pitch ever again. Those fucking games last four hours every time he takes the bump.
Let's set something straight...if the Estrada acquisition means that JD Closser never wears a Brewers uniform, then I am a fan of the trade. At least I am somewhat excited to see what Vargas and Aquino can provide. Hell, any change from last year must be good. But I still have a feeling that Davis and Eveland will be more valuable than the three players they got back. But, Estrada + Aquino + Vargas - Closser > Davis + Eveland because of Closser's immensely negative value.
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What's wrong with JD Closser?
.383 career OBP in the minors
26 years old
Wasn't this guy a top prospect in baseball like 2 years ago?
2005: .219/.314/.376
2006: .196/.288/.309
2005: .206/.257/.367
2006: .184/.231/.276
One is Moeller, one is Closser. Keep in mind that the park factor will inflate Closser's numbers by about 14%. His walk rate actually kind of intrigues me, but if he only hit .196 slugging .309 in a park with the same atmospheric pressure as the moon, he's more worthless than Estrada.
It's not just in the MLB that he's been playing in extreme hitter's parks. Triple-A Colorado Springs is one of, if not the, best hitter's park in North America. Double-A Tulsa is also a hitter friendly environment. The only pitcher or neutral park he ever played in was Carolina in 2002. At that point he was a fine prospect, but he has steadily declined since. Having seen him in the Majors, I can say he is wholly overmatched.
At age 26 and with good plate discpline, he definitely has more of a ceiling than Estrada. However, he is four years removed from his last impressive performance, and the Brewers don't have much of a history in turning players like Closser around. He is worth taking a shot at, but I was cringing thinking that his shot would come in the Majors. I am interested to see what he can do in Nashville, not in Milwaukee just yet.
this trade is good for a team like the brew crew for one reason--consistency. i agree with jammers that davis may have more postential, but he's never cashed in on his opps in milwaukeeand it's time to move on. he's a nibbler that was pegged and thusly suffered accordingly. brewers fans overvalued him and i really grew sick of the guy.
change is better in this case. the crew needs a fresh starter.
I think we can all agree that the trade will depend on what Doug Davis appears in 2007. Will it be the Doug Davis from 2006 or the Doug Davis from 2003-2005. In 2003, he had a 2.58 ERA in his 8 starts with the Brewers. In 2004, he had a 3.39 ERA, and in 2005 a 3.84 ERA. In 2006, his ERA ballooned to 4.91. The thing I always appreciated about Davis is that he didn't miss a start in his 3.5 years with the Brewers. Do not underestimate how valuable that is. But, was his rise in ERA some kind of trend? His peripheral stats were worse in 2006 than in any other year.
Personally, though, I think Davis returns partially to the 2003-2005 Davis in 2007. Though Claudio Vargas is perhaps underrated, I think Davis is vastly underrated after a disappointing 2006 season. A starting pitcher with excellent health and about a 4.30 ERA in Arizona is worth about $9 million a year in this market. This assumes Davis can throw a 4.30 ERA in Arizona, which I think he can.
Am I the only one upset about losing Eveland? I know I've always been especially fond of him the past four years. He, like Davis, has never had health problems. I hope people aren't forgetting the importance of that again.
Yes, I think you're alone on Eveland.
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