Better Bowl Picks

What the hell the Bub? I spend a week down in the sunshine state and return to find some of the worst and most illogical bowl picks ever forced on a bunch of people since the beginning of time? get a clue, or better yet just sit back and let someone who lives and breathes college football a shot here. Specifically I am talking about the Peach, Cotton Sugar and Rose bowls. All of the other non-BCS bowls aren't worth the empty beer cans I littered the streets of Key West with earlier this week. Here we go...

Peach: Miami rolls in this one for two reasons. One, Miami is one of the most talented teams in the land and simply has far superior coaching when compared to Les Miles and that poorly managed squad of Bayou Bengals. Second, LSU's starting QB Jamarcus Russel is still in a coma after my dawgs tore his arm off in the SEC title game. UM 31 LSU 20

Cotton: Are you freakin' kidding me? Texas Tech over Bama? Gosh 'dall mighty, son. Have you seen the Tide play at all this season? That defense is so intense that the Red Raiders will crap themselves during warmups. Bama's team speed on defense is like nothing the Raiders have seen in the Big 12 all season--including Texas! Brodie Croyle and Kenneth Darby will pick and pound that shitty defense to death. UA 34 TTU 14

Sugar: My boys have far too much speed all over the field for WVU to even have a chance. Shockley destroyed a much tough LSU defense and played himself into the second or third round of the NFL Draft and you think the Mountaineers can beat Georgia with ball control? What's Rich Rodriguez gonna do to block Greg Blue, Brandon Miller and the rest of those animals all while praying to God that our special teams don't end the game in the first quarter?
UGA 40 WVU 10

and the Rose: No one win three straight national titles. Period. UT 38 USC 34

Washington Nationals

Next Season:
The Nationals had a surprisingly good 2005 season, leading the NL East for a while. The team’s collapse was wholly predictable, as the Nats really didn’t have much talent taking the field. At best, the Nationals could finish .500 this season.

Jim Bowden, the shoddy Nationals GM, has done little to improve the team this off-season. He has made two noticeable moves: (1) trading Vinny Castilla for Brian Lawrence, and (2) trading Brad Wilkerson and Termell Sledge for Alfonso Soriano. The Castilla trade is a wash, where each team sent a replacement-level player to the other. The Soriano trade is simply not the right move for the Nationals. They already had a second-baseman, Jose Vidro, who is not willing to move positions. Soriano has been tried everywhere and really cannot play any other position. Vidro’s $7 million salary is not moveable unless he starts the season off hot. The Nationals need outfielders, and they traded two away. Besides the positional problems, the trade is not smart because Soriano is just not that good of a player. Soriano is going to make a bit of money, though. Soriano’s tools tend to blind people to the fact that he is not a great player. He could hit anywhere from .200 to .300 in a given year because he strikes out so much. Sure, he is fast and a very good base stealer, but his glove has always been shaky. And, he absolutely refuses to take a pitch. He has about 1 walk every 20 at-bats. His OBP is driven completely by batting average, which, as I explained, could be very low in a given year with his strikeout rate. One thing going for Soriano is his power from a normally impotent spot in the field, second base. But, I cannot stress enough the effects of park factor here. The Rangers play in a park that had a higher offensive rating than Coors field. Still, Soriano posted only an .815 OPS over the last two years.

Soriano will move to a highly offense-suppressing atmosphere in Washington. The two players that were traded for Soriano, Wilkerson and Sledge are complete opposites of Soriano; each is a very patient hitter. It’s really tough to compare the stats between the players because of the difference in home parks. Wilkerson struggled last year, playing through injuries, and he still posted a .351 OBP and .405 SLG. Soriano is just not a good addition for the Nationals. Even if he gets lucky and hits .300 with power, the Nats are nowhere near contention. My best advice for Jim Bowden is to trade Soriano to a team desperate for a second baseman, and replenish the farm system. Too bad Bowden is going to sign him long-term.

The Pitching: The Nats have one of the most underrated and unnoticed pitchers in baseball, John Patterson. Patterson had a superb 2005 campaign, and is reaching his peak years, after he spent too long in the minors. While Patterson was the Nationals’s best pitcher last year, Livan Hernandez got all the attention. Hernandez is a quality starter, but he is not as great as people make him out to be. He has a rubber arm, but apparently he doesn’t have rubber legs. Injuries and recovery could hamper Hernandez’s season. If you’re looking for a fantasy pitcher in the middle rounds, target Patterson and avoid Hernandez.

The rest of the rotation is a big question mark. Brian Lawrence will surely make the rotation, but I don’t know if he is good enough to stay in it. I don’t know if the Nationals can even fill the last two rotation spots with human beings, or if they will have to turn to pitching machines. Journeymen like Jon Rauch will get a good look. Ryan Drese is not good, as demonstrated by his 2 K/9 and 5.78 ERA last season.

The Nationals have a pretty good bullpen and one of the best bullpen managers in baseball, Frank Robinson. The loss of Hector Carrasco, who had a wacky-unexpected, good season last year, will hurt. But, the Nats hopefully will have a healthy Luis Ayala and Chad Cordero, an elite closer. Gary Majewski and Joey Eischen are above-average. Too bad the bullpen may be called on in the third inning a lot this year.

The Lineup: The Nats are going to struggle to score runs. Jose Guillen is a good right-fielder. The Nats will get solid production out of second base, no matter who is there. Ryan Zimmerman could have a good year, but can be expected to struggle a bit. Nick Johnson is a very good first baseman, and one of my favorites, but he cannot stay healthy. The Nats have no replacement for him. Christian Guzman is simply terrible, and center field and left field will be manned by two players, Ryan Church and Marlon Byrd, who are unlikely to provide much more than replacement-level play. The offense is not the worst around, but predictable injuries to Vidro and Johnson will make it much worse.

Future Outlook:
The Nats are fighting for a stadium and currently have no owner. If they don’t get the stadium, there is potential for contraction, though contraction is always used more as a ploy to get the stadium than anything else. It’s hard to imagine the Nationals ever really competing. For one, they are stuck in the NL East, where three teams are battling hard for the top and another is rebuilding completely for a run in a few years. Also, the Nationals are crippled by one of the very worst GM’s in baseball in Bowden. The Nats don’t have much of a farm system, nor do they have many young cogs at the big-league level around which to build.

Farm System: The Nats/Expos have had a history of dealing away prospects and developing new ones just as fast. Right now though, things have really dried up. I’d rank the Nats as having one of the bottom 25% of farm systems in baseball. Here’s a couple of pieces of what they have:

1) Ryan Zimmerman: 21 3B. Zimmerman was the fourth overall selection from the 2005 June draft and quickly became the first player in the draft to make it to the Show in a September call-up. Zimmerman is a good doubles hitter, but he lacks the home run power right now. Unfortunately, he is not going to have much minor league time to develop the power, as he will likely be the Nat’s starting third baseman.
2) Larry Broadway: 25 1B. I am always really skeptical of guys that have catchy names. If you look closely, you will see that trend. Broadway is getting old, and was hampered severely by injury last year. He has good power and reaches base at a good enough clip. However, I am really concerned with age and health. He needs at least another year in the minors and could be 27 when he finally gets the call.

Up Next:
Arizona Diamondbacks

Previous Team Audits:
Houston Astros
Philadelphia Phillies
Florida Marlins
Atlanta Braves
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals

Houston Astros

The 2006 Astros: They have a chance to compete in the NL central again in ‘06. With the Brewers still developing, and the Chubs making several pricey and questionable moves, the Astros still weigh in slightly ahead of either of those teams in 2006. They still don't match up with the Cardinals. Provided their key players stay healthy, something that has really killed the team at times in the past two seasons, Houston should finish with nearly the same record as 2005.

Winter: The Astros have seemingly infuriated their fans by refusing to dabble in the free agent market again this winter (Last year they only signed 45 year old John Franco and Roger Clemens). The Astros had the 6th largest payroll at $94 million in 2005(after adding Clemens at $18 mil), and that number is likely to increase without any more free agent signings because of arbitration eligible players, so it’s no surprise that 2nd year GM Tim Purpura has been quiet. Here are some things that they’re working on now:

Brad Ausmus: After a career year at the plate in ’05 (.258 avg, 3 HRs, .351 OBP), the Astros decided to reward him with a two year deal worth $7.5 million plus incentives. Ausmus won gold gloves with the Astros in ’01 and ’02, knows their pitching staff, and has been an Astro for seven years, thus the contract.

Russ Springer: They recently signed Springer to a one year deal worth $750,000. He’s a below average middle reliever identical to the Brewer’s Jeff Bennett in virtually every way.

Mike Lamb: Lamb got a $1.7 million one year deal. He can play a little 3rd base, 1st base and left field but hits like a girl. He’s poised to see some significant time at first base this season.

Orlando Palmeiro: Got $2 million plus incentives over two years. He’s a 36 year old outfielder with 12 career HRs in over 2000 major league Abs. Any above average minor leaguer could post his number as a reserve outfielder.

Carlos Hernandez: He’s a 25 year old that rocketed through the minors and had potential, but was stifled by injuries in 2005 and he wasn’t resigned.

Morgan Ensberg, Adam Everett, Brad Lidge, Dan Wheeler: Ensberg established himself as a premiere power hitter, Brad Lidge is a stud closer, Everett is a serviceable middle infielder and Dan Wheeler is a solid setup guy. These 4 guys combined to make less than $2 million in 2005. They’re all eligible for arbitration and should get significant raises this year.

The Lineup: There are a lot of question marks in the lineup this season, but here’s how the batting order projects:

2b- Craig Biggio: He accepted a $4 mil option in his 19th year with the ‘Stros. He was better than expected in ’05, but not much was expected. One can only expect a further slide in ’05. He was a .300 hitter posting OBPs over .400 in his prime, but hit just .264 with a .327 OBP in ’05. 19 of his 26 HRs in ‘05 came at hitter friendly Minute Maid Park.

CF- Wily Taveras: Rookie of the year runner up in ’05. He’s a slap hitter with crazy speed and no power. If Juan Pierre took a large crap, it would probably look something like Taveras. This guy will steal 50 bases. He’s also working on becoming a switch hitter, something that is bound to completely mess up his swing this season.

LF- Lance Berkman: As you probably know, when healthy, this man can hit. He’ll probably end up playing some 1st base if Bagwell can’t get healthy.

3b- Ensberg: He would have hit 40 HRs if he stayed healthy in ’05. He’s a 30 year old late bloomer that finally worked his way into Houston in 2003 after being selected out of USC in 1998. He still may not have peaked.

1b- Jeff Bagwell (?) : This former power hitter was a shell of himself last season. The buzz in Houston is that he’s putting in oodles of overtime this winter to get healthy for ’06. With the $18 million he was paid for trying healthy all of last season, he damn well better be putting in extra work. He’s a scrub. Mike Lamb and Lance Berkman will see some action at first.

RF- Jason Lane: He’s another product of the Astro’s farm system. He played in 145 games in ’05 and was mighty streaky. He has some power (26 Hrs in limited Abs) and should hit about .275.

C- Ausmus: See above.

SS- Adam Everett: He’s a liability with a bat, but fields his position well.

Bench- Chris Burke, Eric Bruntlett, Mike Lamb, Raul Chavez (catcher): These guys, like the rest of the lineup, are products of the Astro’s farm system. Most are fairly young and cheap. It’s likely that some will have to compete for spots on the team. Sadly, Jose “Specs” Vizcaino was finally released by the team this off season.

Hitting Prospects: Wow. The farm system has really dried up. That’ll happen when you promote your 6 top guys in the previous season. I’m serious. Their best minor league performers last year were career AAAA players Mike Coolbaugh, Charles Gipson, and Danny Klassen (And Luke Scott). The guys left in the minors:

*Luke Scott: This lefty hitting outfielder seems legit. He was a September call-up after hitting 31 HRs in AAA (.286/.363/.966). Once Bagwell hangs ‘em up for the year/career, he’ll play in Berkman’s stead, as Berkman will take 1b. He played college ball, spent 4 years in the minors and is more than ready for the majors.

*Josh Anderson: Another lefty hitting outfielder. 4th round pick in 2003. He’s young and hits for average. The ‘Stros expect him to get stronger and hit for more power. He played AA ball last year.

Rotation: The Astros are waiting for Clemens to make a decision. He’ll cost them around $20 mil if he signs. He said wouldn’t commit until January at the earliest. He can’t resign with the Astros until May 1 and he’s reportedly looking hard at Boston and NY again and said he would also play for the Rangers. He’s obviously trying to further inflate his price-tag. What an a-hole, right? Here’s the rotation sans Clemens:

1. Roy Oswalt: (Stud) Won 20 2 years running. He struck out 184 in 241 innings last season.
2. Andy Pettitte: (Stud) The move to the NL did him well. He’s an ace in the second spot. He simply dominated last season.
3. Brandon Backe: He’s a young righty. Seems like a pretty weak 3rd starter, but he’s young and could improve in ’06. He’s not a fantasy baseball caliber pitcher, but is slated as a member of the rotation.
4. Wandy Rodriguez: You may remember this soft tossin’ lefty from the playoffs of the season past. Well, he’s 23, and was a top Astros pitching prospect. I just don’t see him getting very far. His WHIP was around 1.50 and his ERA 5.50. He posted around a 4.00 ERA at all levels of the minors combined. Nobody seems too high on him. He’ll have to compete for a spot.
5. Ezequiel Astacio: Have you seen this guy’s face? He may be the ugliest man in baseball. He’s 26 and just finished an extended minor league career. For 6 years, the Phillies and Astros thought he was too thin and weak to pitch in the majors. He is. He likely won’t be the 5th starter at the beginning of the season, as Clemens will be signed, another starter will be acquired to fill a spot in the rotation, or he’ll be out-pitched in spring. He started 14 games last year.

*Taylor Buchholtz: He’s a young prospect that had injury problems last season (shoulder). He’s a strong righty who strikes guys out. He is expected to compete for a spot in the rotation. Keep an eye on him.

Bullpen: This is pretty well set. The bullpen is strong.

Brad Lidge: All-star closer.
Wheeler: setup guy.
Mike Gallo: Decent lefty reliever.
Chad Qualls: Decent righty reliver.
Springer: Mop up righty.
Brooksamus Prime Kieschnick: toiled at Round Rock for the ‘Stros last season.

More pitching prospects:

*Felipe Paulino: he’s being developed as a late inning reliever. 128 strikeouts in 112 minor league innings. He’s 21.

*Fernando Nieve: A 23 year old RHP. He’s a starter and will compete for a spot this spring. 8.51 K/9 and 1.24 Whip in the minors.

*Mark McLemore: Not to be confused with Mark BlackLemore, formerly of every American league team, this guy is a 25 year old white gentleman who was selected in the 4th round in 2002. They’ve tried him as a reliever and a starter, but he’s pretty mediocre.

*Jason Hirsh: 6’8 RHP. 2nd round pick. 23 years old with potential. Will start at AAA this year.

The Astros, outside of Biggio and Bagwell are really young. Although their farm system seems pretty depleted, many of their players still have developing to do at the major league level. They should be in good shape for the next couple of years.

Next up: San Diego Padres

Previous Audits:
Marlins
Braves
Pirates
Cardinals
Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies

Next Season:
The Phillies are really close to winning the NL East on paper right now. They need another pitcher or two to get them past the Mets and Braves. Phillies fans should prepare for another heart-breaking season right now.

The Pitching: Brett Myers was the Phillies best pitcher last season. He had a great strikeout rate and very solid control. However, he gave up 31 home runs. Those home runs weren’t just because of the park he was playing in either. His home run rate on the road was nearly as high as at home. Myers will be needed to anchor the rotation again in 2006. He is still young (25) and improving. Though his home run rate is a concern, his command signals that he should be in for another good season in 2006.

The rest of the rotation is a major problem, one that will likely cost the Phillies the NL East. Jon Lieber and Corey Lidle are steady, but unspectacular. Together they will probably post an ERA in the mid-to-low fours. I guess that’s not too bad pitching in Philadelphia. Randy Wolf will miss significant time with injury in 2006. Vince Padilla was shipped to Texas. The last two spots in the rotation are up for grabs, and there is simply no one there to grab them. Given how close the Phillies are to winning the East this season, they would be one of very few teams that would have been wise to overpay for pitching this off-season. They haven’t yet, and it could cost them.

The bullpen lost William Wagner, and new Phillies G.M. Pat Gillick has attempted to fill Wagner’s big shoes with Tom Gordon. Gordon has been a great reliever and a savior of the Yankees the past few years. But, Gordon is 38 years old and declining. Three years and $18 million dollars later, Gordon is going to retire nicely, and Phillies fans are probably going to regret this signing. Still, Gordon will probably be the Phillies best reliever in 2006. The bullpen is going to be a problem for the Phillies.

The Lineup: If I had to guess which team would score the most runs in the NL, I’d have to say the Phillies right now. Ryan Howard’s rookie campaign was not a fluke, as he put up huge numbers in the minors as well. Chase Utley has emerged as one of the best second basemen in baseball. Bob Arbeu is constantly good, and one of the best right-fielders of this generation. Aaron Rowand is a huge upgrade in center field. Pat Burrell is a good power hitting left fielder. Jimmy Rollins is one of the best shortstops in the National League. Jason Michaels is a very decent backup outfielder and hitter off the bench. David Bell and Abraham Nunez should be an adequate platoon at third base. And Sal Fasano and Mike Lieberthal will probably provide above-average production behind the plate. This team, in this ballpark, is going to score an awful lot of runs.

Future Outlook:
Pat Gillick is not a great GM, and the Phillies have simply too many big contracts and not enough prospects. 2007 looks somewhat promising, only because the Phillies will be relieved of the $21 million they owe to Randy Wolf, David Bell, and Mike Lieberthal in 2006. None of those contracts are moveable. The Phillies still owe Jim Thome $22 million. Abreu, though a great player, is making $15 million. Pat Burrell is going to make an average of $12 million a year over the next 3 years. Gillick is not going to be able to replace many holes with in-house prospects because the Phillies just don’t have many prospects. The future does not look too bright, especially with the emergence of the spendthrift Mets and the force that is the Braves in the NL East. This further emphasizes why the Phillies should make some big one-year investments this season in a last-ditch effort to finally win the division.

Farm System: A couple years ago, the Phillies had a strong system. Now, with Ryan Howard graduating and Cole Hamels and Gavin Floyd apparently busts, the Phillies have very little left in their system. I would rank it in the bottom 25% in baseball. The Phils have maybe one top-100 prospect. Here’s what they have:

1) Giovany Gonzalez: 20 LHP. Gio came to the Phils in the Jim Thome trade with the White Sox. He is a talented lefty starter, who has averaged over 11 strikeouts per 9 in a couple of minor league seasons. There is nothing not to like about his numbers. However, he has not made the jump to AA, meaning two things: (1) he may not be able to progress through the minors, and (2) he has a longer time to get injured before making the majors. Still, he is a very good prospect.
2) Dan Haigwood: 22 LHP. Haigwood also came in the Thome trade. Haigwood had a very good year split between A and AA last year. He has posted a strikeout per inning and maintained around a 3.30 ERA in the minors. However, he has also walked about 4 batters per nine innings. That is a little bit too much to make him an elite pitching prospect. Though good, Haigwood is not overly special.
3) Cole Hamels: 22 LHP. Great arm, no health. Hamels was a mega-prospect, but he hasn’t thrown over 40 innings in either of the last two years. When healthy, Hamels is deadly. But, he is still at least a year away from the majors, and assuming he can go that year without an injury is probably foolish. Even if he does, his arm is all torn up, and a long major league career is unlikely.
4) Michael Bourn: 23 OF. Bourn had a disappointing season at AA in 2005. He is a prospect based solely on his 2004 campaign, where he posted a .433 OBP in high-A ball. Because the move to AA is the hardest to make, there is a good chance that Bourn will flop.

Next up:
Washington Nationals

Previous Team Audits:
Florida Marlins
Atlanta Braves
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals

Florida Marlins

Next Season:
In 2006, Marlins fans will put there hope in . . . Mitchell Friedman? Rick Vaughn? Willie Hayes? Who do we have coaching? Lou Brown? Joe Girardi? Tell me it’s Brown and not Girardi.

In all likelihood, the Marlins will be the worst team in baseball next year. Jeffrey Loria, easily the sleaziest franchise owner in all of sports, has made a joke of this baseball team. He seriously must have been watching Major League. Loria wants to move the team to Las Vegas, where he would have a stadium publicly financed for him and the value of his team will literally increase tenfold. That’s just not fair. Just like in Major League, Loria will alienate his fans so much and field such a garbage team that there will be no choice but to move out of Miami. In the past, Loria always threatened the move to blackmail the city of Miami into financing a new stadium for him. Now that all of Florida is knee-deep in hurricane problems, there is no longer a chance for a publicly financed ballpark. So, Loria has turned to Plan B -- getting the hell out of Miami. The Marlins will probably have attendance in the low 2,000’s for every game, no joke. They are done in Miami.

No matter what, though, Loria is going to earn a nice profit this year. The lowest possible salary a team can pay is $7.9 million because the league minimum is $316,000 per player. The Marlins’s payroll will probably be around $9,000,000. Ha ha ha, right? No. I wasn’t joking. The Marlins seriously have gotten rid of their 17 highest paid players. Seventeen! They have two good players remaining from the roster last year, Donte Willis and Miggy Cabrera; neither is eligible for arbitration. The Marlins payroll will be about ¼ of the next lowest-paid team in the league. Regardless of how many fans the Marlins bring in, Loria is going to be raking in the dough. The Marlins have a television contract that alone is worth $9 million a year. Any other revenues the team earns can go to other operating costs. Even with 1,000 fans per game, the Marlins can probably pay the stadium expenses and most of the front office expenses. That leaves every penny of revenue sharing money to go into Loria’s pockets. MLB owners agreed to share revenues to increase the competitive balance in baseball. Owners are supposed to invest the $20+ million they get every year into the baseball team. Loria is pocketing that money. I’m not sure if there is anything in MLB’s Collective Bargaining Agreement that eliminates any revenue sharing if a team does not spend a certain amount of money. If there isn’t, Loria is absolutely pirating money. What a dick, huh?

Even if the team doesn’t move to Vegas, Loria is going to earn a nice profit from whatever reduced price he originally bought the team for. The Marlins can move to Oregon, and he’d have a nice publicly financed ballpark and a growing fanbase. MLB’s collective bargaining agreement expires after the 2006 season. At the expiration, contraction again becomes a possibility. But, even if the Marlins are contracted, the league will have to pay Loria the market value of his team. I hope that no cities bite on the publicly financed ballpark and Loria is stuck in Miami. I hope the league does not save him with contraction. Then, I hope the owners and players agree, as they should, to a minimum league salary. I know the players would want that.

The Pitching: Getting back to the baseball side of things, the Marlins rotation in 2006 will be Willis, Brian Moehler, Jason Vargas, and two out of about 15 available young pitchers. We do not know what to expect from any of these guys. There is a lot of potential, but none of these guys are proven. Expect some growing pains, especially if Willis is traded before he becomes arbitration eligible in 2007. At this point, I wouldn’t rule that possibility out.

To say that the Marlins bullpen is inexperienced would be like saying NBA Jam is just an acceptable video game. The Marlins bullpen is beyond inexperienced. With Nate Bump uncertain for 2006, Randy Messenger may be the most experienced reliever on the Marlins, with 37 career innings at the Show. Travis Bowyer, with his 9 career innings, will likely be the team’s closer.

The Lineup: Miguel Cabrera and 7 rookie or second-year players will make up the Marlins lineup. They are going to be hurting an awful lot to score runs. This has to be the worst offense in baseball.

Future Outlook:
Jeffrey Loria, Larry Beinfest and Co. traded about a dozen legitimate MLB players for prospects. As you would expect, they got some young talent. I agree with the theory then when you are rebuilding, you should go all the way and not do what the Royals and Pirates continually do, i.e. bring in Doug Mientkiewicz and Sean Casey, respectively. However, there is no question that Loria is just dumping salary for the sake of dumping salary. There is no way the Marlins got good enough returns on most of the trades they made. They got good players, but they could have bargained better and gotten much more in a market like this.

The Marlins certainly are not saddled with any contract liabilities for overpriced players, as no one likely will make seven figures this next season. In three or four years, the Marlins could have a very cheap, very good young team. It will all depend on how the prospects turn out, whether the Marlins even exist, and, if they do exist, where they are playing.

Farm System: Because I still consider Jeremy Hermida eligible for prospect status, I’d say the Marlins are one of the three or four most elite farm systems in baseball. When you add 11 prospects in a month, you’re going to have a very deep system. The questions now are: (1) how many of these players will make it?; and (2) how many have true star potential? They will certainly get a lot of chances to prove themselves at the major league level. Here is the cream of the crop:

1) Jeremy Hermida: 21 OF. In my mind, Hermida is the best outfield prospect in baseball. This is just my opinion. Here’s why I think he is so good: First of all, he is major league ready at age 21. In 41 AB for the Marlins last year, he posted a 1.017 OPS. He has routinely hit in the .290’s in the minors and been young at every stop. His power numbers have steadily progressed at each level, culminating with a solid .518 slugging percentage in pitcher-friendly AA ball last year. He is athletic and apparently smart, having stolen 69 bases successfully in his career while only being caught 10 times. But, it is Hermida’s plate discipline that makes him an elite prospect. Get ready for this . . . Last year, in 386 AA at-bats, he took 111 walks. 111 walks! He had a .457 OBP! He obviously takes pitches, as he had 89 strikeouts to go along with the walks. But, that is an average amount of strikeouts for a patient power hitter. So, there is very little not to like about Hermida. Hermida will start in right field this year.
2) Yusmeiro Petit: 21 RHP. Petit was the prize of the Carlos Delgado trade. Though not a hard-thrower, Petit has excelled at every stop in the minors. He was very young at every stop and compiled a ridiculous 429/75 K/BB ratio and 2.76 ERA in 346 innings.
3) Scott Olsen: 21 LHP. Olsen made it all the way to the majors last year, following several impressive years in the minors. Cumulatively, he posted a 3.11 ERA, over a strikeout per inning, almost a 3/1 K/BB ration, and an absolutely miniscule 0.43 HR/9 in almost 400 minor league innings. He was young in every league he played and is left-handed. What is not to like? . . . Well, besides being a pitcher. Olsen will be a Marlins starter in 2006.
4) Josh Willingham: 26 C. Willingham spent too much time in A-ball before getting promoted. As a result, he is very old to be a prospect. However, because of his incredible plate discipline, power, and the fact that he can catch, Willingham is a very good prospect. In the last two years in the minors, which he split between AA and AAA, Willingham batted .300, with 138 walks, 141 strikeouts, and 43 home runs in about 550 at-bats. Half of those numbers were put up in a hitter’s park, but still. That is very impressive for a catcher, even if he is 26. Willingham will be the Marlins starting catcher in 2006.
5) Anibal Sanchez: RHP. Sanchez came to the Marlins in the Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell dump. Like the other pitchers, he struck out more than a batter an inning while showing good control. He could use another full years in the minors, but he probably won’t get it.
6) Hanley Ramirez: 22 SS. Ramirez is in a lot of people’s top-25 prospects. I just do not get it. He hasn’t shown power or a good ability to draw walks, he doesn’t hit for a very high average, and he is at least a year away from being ready for the majors, a year he too will not get. Everything he did in the minors screams of adequacy and not much more. I’m either missing something about him, or he was an over-hyped prospect from an over-hyped team.
7) Ricky Nolasco: 23 RHP. Nolasco came from the Cubs in the Juan Pierre deal. He is your typical good pitching prospect. He is just about major league ready and posted a strikeout per inning and about a 3/1 K/BB ratio.
8) Travis Bowyer: 24 RHP. Bowyer will likely be the Marlins closer in 2006. He actually is major league ready, and has posted some very good strikeout rates in the minors. Control could be an issue in his first year or two, but expect him to be a good bullpen arm.

The Marlins really have a lot of talent in the minors. They probably have about 20 of the top 250 prospects in baseball, and probably 4 or 5 in the top 100. There could be several breakouts in 2006 from players like Grant Psomas, Aaron Thompson, Renyel Pinto, Dan Uggla. Gaby Hernandez, and Chris Volstad. There is a lot of danger of players being rushed though obviously (circa Brewers of the 90’s).

Previous Team Audits:
Atlanta Braves
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals

Atlanta Braves

I am beyond the point where I am fooled by the rest of their NL East. No matter how much money they (Mets and Phillies) throw at the problem, there is one maxim that will hold true this season: The Atlanta Braves will win the NL East. I am also certain, though not quite as certain, that they won’t even make the world series, let alone win it. I learned all of this in the ’03 off season when they let Gary Sheffield, Javy Lopez and Maddux the Younger go. Nobody, or very very few outside Atlanta, thought that team could compete for a then 13th straight division title in ’04. Lo and behold, Leo and Bobby figured out the pitching (Jaret Wright????), the backstop (Estrada) and the outfield (well, not really here) and went on to win the division. Which begs the question: what the hell? Only one answer really applies: very few organizations are so drastically effected (especially in this positively a manner) by pure excellence from the on-and-off the field management.
The success of pitching staffs coached by the Bobby Cox/Leo Mazzone tag-team is well-documented. They’ve certainly had the best returns from starting pitching of any manager/pitching coach combination in history. When they lost players, they plugged in new guys. When QuesTec changed the strike zone, they adapted their formula with it. Now, the Braves have survived the losses of key pitchers because they have had the Cox/Mazzone bot, but, can they afford the loss of a key element of the bot itself? Obviously only time will tell, but, until my maxim is disproved, the Braves will press on. However, as successful as these two have been, they aren’t the true key to success.
Plain and simple, John Schuerholz is stupid like a fox. He makes some absolute headscratcher moves, and they pan out with alarming frequency. He arrived one season after Bobby Cox and has had an absolute knack for buying low and selling high on players. How many Phillies fans would like to have Johnny Estrada in their lineup in 04 than Kevin Millwood in the rotation. Yes, I know Milwood was great last year, but he was in Cleveland. He pretty much sucked in Philly. He has gone out and gotten the pitchers that would thrive the most in Bobby and Leo’s system, and let them go when they had become way too overvalued (Russ Ortiz). He has kept the minor league system stocked, and the present system is no different. This is why I don’t doubt that he knew what he was doing trading Andy Marte for Edgar Renteria. I don’t understand it right now, but that doesn’t mean it’s a mistake.
I’ll start pretty much every team audit with offensive analysis before pitching, but the Braves are clearly a special exception. This is clearly the class and the crux of the Braves. They have two bona-fide aces in Smoltz and Hudson, though each has his risks. Smoltz will turn 39 this season. Now, elite pitchers like Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens have been having success into their 40’s, and Smoltz’s arm was saved a bit by his bullpen stint, BUT 39 is old, and only a select few have success beyond this point. Hudson, meanwhile, didn’t reach 30 starts either of the last two years, and has never started 33 straight. They’ll be successful if one or both of these guys struggles, but their elite status depends on premier performances from both.
As for the rest of the rotation, Jorge Sosa performed WAY above all expectations last year, including PECOTA projections. Several Braves pitchers have done this, but look for some regression next year. Horacio Ramirez also looks to make the rotation next year, and will probably put up similar numbers to last year, but has more room for improvement over last year than Sosa. Mike Hampton is going to miss the ’06 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Look for John Thompson to take the 5th spot if he stays healthy. The bullpen looks solid with the Reitsma and Farnsworth at the end of games and the recently-acquired Lance Cormier and Oscar Villareal in the middle of games. Outlook: another solid year for Braves pitching in ’06, despite the loss of Mazzone.
The Braves bats have been serviceable the last few years, but will get a boost in this year and coming years by the call-ups of standout Braves prospects. Brian McCann will do most of the catching, replacing Johnny Estrada, and backed up by Todd Pratt. He should prove to be a good major league prospect, but will likely bat 8th for the braves this year. They’ll have two other young starters in the outfield, Jeff Francouer, who will be all but assured a starting spot after his performance in 05, and any one of Ryan Langerhans, Kelly Johnson, or Matt Diaz. My money’s on Langerhans, although they wouldn’t have acquired Diaz unless they had good reason. Also, look for Francouer to regress a bit this year, especially considering his abysmal walk rates. The final member of the outfield is Andruw Jones. Definietly one of the 5 or 10 most valuable players in the NL and perhaps majors. If he has another year like last year, he will be in position to win the MVP award that many (though not myself) felt he deserved this year.
The infield is loaded with veteran talent and potential. Larry Jones will be playing third, a likely permanent move given the trade of 3B uberprospect Andy Marte for now starting shortstop, Edgar Renteria. The Braves know what they’re getting in each of these players, though they may wish for a little more out of Renteria as he tries to fill Furcal’s shoes at the top of the order. He’s a good replacement, but not quite in the same class as Rafael. On the right side, they’ll start bulldog Marcus Giles and Adam Laroche. They are 27 and 26, respectively, and are approaching their prime. Look for surprising performances from each this year.
Outlook: The Mets threw a TON of money at the division race this year, but with such a track record and an abundance of youth and talent, the Braves WILL win their 15th straight this year. On to the prospects . . .

1. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (C). Just say his name, its fun. I struggled a bit in giving this distinction to a player that spent last year in high-A ball, but a lot of atlanta’s would be AAA talent is either at the Major League level or was traded. Was .314/.394/.519 last year, and will likely have plenty of time to develop into trade bait with Brian McCann just beginning his major league career.
2. Brandon Jones (OF) was .350/.437/an alarming .417 at low A with a 1/7 PA walk rate. He then blew up at high A with a .308/.429/.577 split and a 1/6.3 PA walk rate. No huge power but, damn, look at that plate discipline.
3. Chuck James (LHP). Another soft tossing, control lefty without dominating K/9 numbers, but a juicy 5.78 K:BB ratio and a 2.09 ERA. Cox and Mazzone’s ghost/replacement should have a field day with this guy.
4. Eric Campbell (3B). Campbell was just drafted this year and spent the season in rookie ball. So why do I have him rated here? A .634 SLG. That’s just a silly number for a third baseman (though the talent at the hot corner is increasing in the majors). That, coupled with a .383 OBP lands you on a list of your organizations top prospects. His walk rate is not earth shattering (1 per 10 PA), but its serviceable.
5.Yunel Escobar (SS). Spent exactly one week with the rookie league Danville Braves, where he slugged .733 and had a ..472 OBP. This was an incredibly small sample size (35 PA’s), but it clearly showed he didn’t belong at that level. Spent the rest of the season at A ball where he went .313/.358/.470, which is good for a shortstop, but definitely not top 100 worthy.
Keep in mind, this group of prospects is young, but the big league team will be starting 3 guys that are essentially rookies, and they traded their next best prospect to Boston.

Next up: NY Mets

Pittsburgh Pirates

Next Season:
The Pirates honestly have no chance to compete in 2006. There is generally little to like about the makeup of the 2006 team. In all likelihood, there will be another losing season in Pittsburgh.

The Pitching: If there was a strength of the Pirates, it would be the pitching; not because the pitching is good, but because it has the potential to be good. Two years ago, Oliver Perez found his control and wooed us all as with an insane strikeout repertoire. Last year was nothing less than a complete disaster. His home run rate and walk rate were huge, and thus his ERA was huge in 2005. The question is how much of the ERA spike, almost three runs a game higher in 2005 than in 2004, was because of injury. Perez is still just 24 years old, still has an incredible arm, and can still strike people out right and left. But, he walks a lot of guys and gives up an awful lot of home runs. I’d expect an ERA around 4.00 for Perez in 2006, though the deviation on that prediction is huge.

Outside of Perez, there is even more potential from the Pirate starters. The Pirates made a very wise move in not offering Josh Fogg arbitration. Fogg was an inadequate starting pitcher, and his departure opens the door for some rookies with potential. The Pirates would be wise to find a suitor for Kip Wells, who peaked three years ago and declined steadily every year since.

Zach Duke showed great promise in about 80 major league innings last season. Duke is one in a string of young lefty command-control pitchers. Sean Burnett is another similar young lefty, but he was sidelined this past season with injuries. He should return this year. Similarly, Paul Maholm, a 23-year-old finesse lefty, will get a shot at the rotation this year. These three pitchers are all incredibly similar. Each does not throw very hard. None strike out very many people, but they don’t walk too many people, either. They derive their success from keeping the ball down and in the ballpark. I cannot explain why they succeed. I honestly believe there is something special about finesse lefties that makes them work out better than any other pitching prospects. I just don’t know what it is. If there are injuries, expect to see another lefty prospect, Tom Gorzelanny, come up and pitch.

Other than Kip Wells, the Pirates probably will not have a starter over 25 years old this season (although Vamp Santos may make the team as a Rule V pick). That means the rotation will be mighty cheap. The last probable starter is Ian Snell, a lonely right-handed pitching prospect. Like all the aforementioned starters, Snell does not have incredible stuff or numbers, but he is solid and could blossom at the Major League level. I must also mention that former prospect, John Van Benschoten, who missed all of last year with a shoulder injury, may come back and compete for the rotation.

I would not be surprised if the rotation had a good year. They almost certainly will be worth the total cost, around $7 million I would guess. They have a depth of young, unproven talent; although not great talent, there is potential.

The bullpen lost its closer, Jose Mesa, to free agency. “Lost” is used very loosely there. Mesa was not a great pitcher, and he is easily replaced. Shame on the Pirates for not moving him before last season’s end. The bullpen will not be the problem for the Pirates this year. In fact, my number one fantasy baseball closer sleeper may come from the Pirates in the form of one Mike Gonzalez. Gonzalez is a very good power lefty, who has made the Brewers look stupid several times. He is one of the best relievers in baseball, and I expect a B.J. Ryan type breakout if he indeed is given a chance to close.

The Lineup: The lineup, no matter how you dice it up, looks awful in 2006. Keep in mind that I believe Jason Bay is one of the very best hitters in the National League. Bay’s .961 OPS, 21/22 stolen base percentage, and above-average outfield range made him a serious MVP candidate in 2005. Because Bay is a late-blooming Canadian whose minor league numbers pointed to this kind of success, expect huge things from Bay again in 2006.

Outside of Bay, there is just nothing in the lineup. Sean Casey is being touted as the best first baseman the Pirates have had since Willie Stargell. While that’s not true, it is true that the Pirates have not had a good first baseman in a long time. Unfortunately, the Sean Casey is also not a good first baseman. .800 OPS’s do not cut it at first base any more. It is arguable whether Casey is even better than last year’s poor first base solution, Darryl Ward. Ah hell, they both destroy the Brewers.

Casey is not alone here. There is not a single other position where the Pirates project to have an above-average player. I don’t think that it’s even arguable, unless you think the Wilsons are something special. The Pirates don’t really have many position player prospects either. Chris Duffy, Brad Eldred, and Nate McLouth will battle for playing time, but none are world beaters. At least the Pirates won’t have Tike Redman playing any more.

Future Outlook: The Pirates are a truly small market team. Brewers fans can relate to them very well. Like the Brewers, the Pirates can succeed only with some savvy small trades and a strong farm system. Pirates GM Dave Littlefield made an unbelievable trade when he picked up Oliver Perez and Jason Bay for Brian Giles. But, the Pirates need more than just that. I would not be surprised if this was Littlefield’s last season in Pittsburgh. Right now, Pirates fans only hope is that Mark Cuban buys the team and does not mind losing money to field a competitive team. Otherwise, the Pirates will not compete in the near future.

Farm System: First, I should mention my criteria for farm systems. Players are not considered prospects if they were called up before September in 2005 and not expected to return to the minors in 2006.

The Pirates have constantly picked early in drafts since the 1993. Like many other teams, the Pirates wasted picks on athletic players who could not hit. They also had problems with pitcher health. Case in point: Bryan Bullington, the first overall selection in the 2002 draft, tore his labrum and probably isn’t going to make much of a comeback. I cannot argue with the draft choice, as Bullington was an elite college arm, and I feel bad the Pirates wasted $4 million in signing bonus money on him.

With their top two prospects, Snell and Duke, graduating to the majors last year, the Pirates are probably in the bottom 50% of farm systems out there. Here are the notable prospects the Pirates have left:

1) Tom Gorzelanny: 23 LHP. Gorzelanny is probably the only top-100 prospect the Pirates have. He is just another in the long line of young lefties in the Pirates organization. He spent all of last season in AA, posting a 3.24 ERA and averaging about a strikeout per inning, a 3/1 K/BB ratio and only 6 home runs allowed in 129 innings.
2) Andrew McCutchen: 19 OF. McCutchen is an athletic outfielder that was drafted in the first round last year. In a few months of Rookie and A-ball, he showed good power, plate discipline, and ability to hit for average. 2006 could put him in the top prospects in baseball if he keeps that up.
3) Neil Walker: 20 C. Walker is an athletic catcher taken in the first round of 2004. I must say that I am wholly unimpressed by his numbers. He apparently has no ability to draw a walk, hasn’t discovered his power, and doesn’t hit for too high of an average. Other people are high on him, though. When he learns how to hit, I’ll consider him a prospect.
4) Josh Sharpless: 24 RP. Sharpless has posted some great numbers as a reliever in the low minors. He has pretty much made the jump to AA, the hardest step to make in the minors. He could be called up at any point, though he surely could use some seasoning in the high-minors. At his age and being a relief pitcher, he is not a serious prospect. However, it is tough to ignore 13.5 K/9 in 142 minor league innings.
5) Ronny Paulino: 24 C. Paulino had a great season at AAA last year. While last year may have been a fluke, his .910 OPS was mighty impressive for a catcher. Paulino should see playing time in Pittsburgh this year and could be an adequate backup catcher.

All in all, the Pirates just do not have a lot of high-ceiling prospects. The Pirates have some depth in the system, but you’d expect more from a team constantly selling its players and drafting in the top-12 every year. McCutchen has potential, but he is just too young to project. It looks like there are going to be another few years of sub-mediocrity in Pittsburgh.

Previous Team Audits:
St. Louis Cardinals

How to get Reggie Bush

Can you tell I'm not working this week? Three posts in 24 hours. I'll begin my post saying that I want quarterback-ivore mario williams as much (read: much more than) anybody, but, I'd still like Reginald VelBush in green and gold even more. With the 49ers GLORIOUS win yesterday, we are still alive. very alive. however, we need to know who to root for next weekend. So, here it is, in all its glory: The Green Bay Packer Roadmap to drafting Reggie bush
1. Lose to both Chicago and Seattle.
We can't have any more Detroit-like mishaps here
2. Houston must beat San Francisco
This is legit, Houston is actually a better team

The above are requisites. If any of those three conditions do not happen, we are eliminated. Next, those that we could really, really use
3. New Orleans beats Tampa Bay
This has nothing to do with our head to head with New Orleans, rather New Orleans' strength of schedule. Their opponents have five fewer wins than any other set of opponents of teams eligible for #1. This is assuming, though, that the favorites win the games later this weekend (baltimore and new england). They are also the least threatening team that could draft #1 to our #2 . . . They just resigned a solid starting back and are desperate for a great QB like Leinart. Still, go Saints

These are the other games that need to bounce our way for help to our strength of schedule.
4. Chicago over Minnesota
More opponents have played Chicago than minnesota, so a minnesota loss helps more
5. pittsburgh over detroit
detroit gets counted doule in a couple sos comparisons, we need them to lose. and they should. they suck.
6. Kansas City over Cincinnati
This loss helps only us and houston
7. baltimore over cleveland
see #6
8. Washington over philly
same as two above, except substitute San Francisco

So there you go, the simple formula for the packers getting the #1 overall pick. Obviously we're looking at about a 10% chance (couldn't be better than 20% if all five were on equal ground, so we're at about half optimal), but at least you know who to root for. That includes baltimore and the jets this weekend.

A caveat

For those planning on doing team audits (especially if your handles are not Condescendey or $lash), PLEASE let us know ahead of time which team you will be doing a report on. As cool as it would be to have separate audits on the same team, that will be a lot of wasted work for both parties involved. Assume now that the Cardinals, Tigers, Reds, Blue Jays, Brewers (this will be colaborative, likely) and Braves (my next/first audit) are spoken for. Just call your team at the end of your last audit (Condescendy/$lash) or a day ahead of time.

Bowl Week

We are quicky approaching bowl games that involve multiple bcs conferences and, well, mean anything at all. This has to be one of my favorite times of year. comparable to the first weekend of march madness. I usually pick games against the spread, but, forget that. here's my shot at picking the remaining games, starting monday with the motor city bowl (i know it doesn't fit the above qualifications, but its the next game AND i'm pretty sure it's a gimme win for me)
Motor City Bowl
Memphis over Akron

Champs Sports Bowl
Clemson over Colorado
Coach fired before bowl game? i've seen this before . . .

Insight.com Bowl
Arizona St. over Rutgers
Rutgers barely qualified in big east; home game for ASU

MPC Computers Bowl
Boisie St. over Boston College
Home game for BSU; I hate Boston College

Alamo Bowl
Michigan over Nebraska
I hate Michigan; They're still better than Nebraska

Emerald Bowl
Georgia Tech over Utah

Holiday Bowl
Oklahoma over Oregon
I'll teach YOU to schedule crap and claim excellence

Music City Bowl
Minnesota over Virginia
Both teams are mysteries wrappen in enigmas. Minnesota has better running attack and has been more consistent

Sun Bowl
Northwestern over UCLA
Upset pick here. May be the most fun game of bowl week. look for 80-90 combined points

Independence Bowl
South Carolina over Missouri
Missouri probably wouldn't win this game if it were played in independence Missouri. Steve Spurrier is an asshole for ranking ND #14.

Peach Bowl
LSU over Miami
Looks like a good matchup on paper, but LSU is more talented and equally as poorly coached. QB Jamarcus Russel is hurt, which could be a blessing in disguise; i hate defensive football, and the defensiveness of fans towards their defensive football teams (see analysis of Ohio St. below)

Meineke Bowl
NCST over South Florida
USF looked good in their win over Louisville, but that's been about it. Mario Williams demonstrates the skills that will make him a perennial all pro with the Packers.

Liberty Bowl
Tulsa over Fresno st.
This game sucks.

Houston Bowl
TCU over Iowa State
ISU is as overmatched against a mid major as pitt was against utah last year.

Outback Bowl
Florida over Iowa
should be an interesting game

Cotton Bowl
Texas Tech over Alabama
The game I could most easily be dead wrong about. Again, I hate defensive football teams and their defensive fans. Also, TT played something like 23 games against 1-AA opponents this year. Deciding factor: out of conference teams have struggled to prepare for/adjust to Mike Leech's spread offense in bowl games.

Gator Bowl
Virginia Tech over Louisville
Without QB Brian Brohm, Louisville's high powered offense will be lucky to break 14.

Capital One Bowl
Auburn over Wisconsin
But take UW and the points. this game will be very close considering its Barry's last, See: Stanford v. notre dame 2005 (stadium, bowl bid, etc.)

Sugar Bowl
West Virgina over Georgia
West Virginia is getting absolutely ZERO love, but has an effective formula in ball control offense, including a potent rushing attack, and a swarming defense. yes, that is against big east competition, but they will surprise some people, even though this game is being played in UGA's back yard (atlanta, i think)

Fiesta Bowl
Notre Dame over Ohio State
I've done a lot of reading what Ohio State fans have to say about this game, and I can say with great certainty that their fan base is every bit as classless and obnoxious as Michigans. They deserve each other. They won't shut up about their defense. They've got a great defense, stellar even, but to say USC isn't all they're cracked up to be because they have no D is simply absurd. Good defensive teams always feel slighted because they win games despite mediocre offenses and don't get any attention as a result. See good bears teams, all. They then feel like that attention-deprived little sibling when trying to inform you at every turn that they are better than you, especially defensively. Bottom line is, Ohio State will be a great match for Notre Dame, but the Irish have been 100% perfectly prepared in 10 of 11 games this year, and in the one game they weren't (Michigan State) the in-game adjustments were so spot on that they erased a three touchdown deficit and damn near won the game. Look for them to be just as prepared Jan. 2, no matter how good Ohio State's defense is.

Orange Bowl
Penn St. over Florida St.
Moneylines on the game*
Florida State (+240)
Penn State (-310)
A head coach dies during the game (+125)
Both Head Coaches die during the game (+126)
*none of these are legit

Rose Bowl
USC over Texas
They'll cover the 7.5 too. Their offense is unbelievably productive; have you seen the teams in the Big 12?

Also, give consideration to what you may be able to contribute to the effort below. Speaing for myself, its the only thing that's going to get me through January, February, and the first half of March.

St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals in 2006:
The Cardinals remain the strength of the NL Central and are a clear favorite to win the division this next season. The only thing standing in the Cards way is the team’s own health. Most teams are generally carried by a few good players, but the Cardinals are carried an exceptional amount by very few players. Albert Pujols is the best hitter in the NL. Jim Edmonds is a spectacular CF, and Chris Carpenter is one of the best pitchers in the NL. Obviously, if any of these players misses significant playing time, the Cardinals could run into problems.

The Cards have done nothing to improve this off-season, swapping Larry Walker for Juan Encarnacion, Mark Grudzlnk for Junior Spivey/Aaron Miles, Reggie Sanders for a bag of potato chips (Larry Bigbie potato chips to be exact), and signing Bradon Looper. The only significant upgrade that the Cards have made is getting Scott Rolen back from injury. If Rolen comes back to his 2004 form, nothing will stop the Cardinals. If he struggles and the Cards suffer a significant injury to Edmonds, Carpenter, or Pujols, then the division may be wide open. Unlike last year, the Cards cannot replace Rolen in 2006. John Mabry and Abe Nunez, who each filled in laudably last year, are gone. Deivi Cruz, a recent signee, cannot provide what Nunez and Mabry did. The Cards have lost a lot this off-season. Outside of the aforementioned star players, the Cards are pretty thin.

The Pitching: Jason Isringhausen is a very good closer, but he is starting to get old (33). The rest of the bullpen, generally a strength of the Cardinals, is not what it used to be. There is no more Ray King, Julian Tavarez, Cal Eldred, Steve Kline, Al Reyes etc. The Cards will put a lot of faith in Looper, a former first round pick of the Cardinals. Looper’s peripheral stats last year indicate that the faith the Cards put in him may be foolish. He had 27 strikeouts and 22 walks in 59.1 innings last season. That is not good at all and a far cry from what he posted the previous two seasons before last. The Cards will also put a lot of faith in Brad Thompson, who had a surprisingly solid rookie campaign in the pen last year. But, like Looper, his MLB ratios indicate a likely ERA rise this season. The Cards signed Ricardo Rincon, who is about 5 years past his prime. Let’s see if Rincon can withstand the LaRussa-Left-Handed-Bullpen-Pitcher-Torture-Chamber (LLHBPTC). I anticipate the Cards making some moves to strengthen the bullpen before the 2006 season begins. If the team doesn’t, there could be problems in 2006.

The starting rotation loses Matt Morris, which is a significant loss. How will the Cards replace him? Sidney Ponson? Ha! It wasn’t bad luck for Ponson to have a cumulative ERA over 5.5 over the last two seasons. He is awful. The guy can’t even stay out of jail. Mark Mulder, Jeff Suppan, and Jason Marquis each had a good ERA last year. However, none of them had particularly charming numbers outside of ERA, with the possible exception being Suppan. I would anticipate an ERA spike from at least one of Mulder and Marquis in 2006. Chris Carpenter is a great pitcher, but he only pitches 1.4 times per week. If anyone goes down to injury, he will be replaced by a rookie, which I will address later. I simply do not know if the rest of the rotation can hold up. I don’t know if the low ERA’s came from good defense and, if it did, if that defense can continue. But, with the Cards offense, all the rotation needs to do is be adequate.

The Lineup: The Cards will have a significant drop in production from the corner outfielders and bench. I figure the Cards will quickly realize how bad Aaron Miles is and replace him with Junior Spivey. Spivey and Eckstein will compose an average major league middle infield. The Cards catching unit, Ya Molina and Gary Bennett, is below average with the bat. So, as said before, Edmonds, Rolen, and Pujols are going to have to carry the load this year.

I may be alone in this, but the Cardinals may be in trouble in 2006. There are a lot of question marks. Edmonds is another year older. No one knows how Rolen will come back. The bullpen lost 4 key components from last season and the bench has thinned. Matt Morris is gone, Sidney Ponson is in. The corner outfield lacks a good hitter. God help the Cardinals if Al Pujols gets hurt. Will the stadium even be completed in St. Louis? So much is undecided.

Future Outlook:
Walt Jocketty, Cardinals General Manager, has built a very good team, but it is starting to show signs of deterioration. He has Albert Pujols and a huge market in St. Louis, equipped with a new stadium, to build around. How the Cards do in the next three years will depend largely in how Jocketty plays the market. The Cards have a lot of money to work with, especially now with Larry Walker retired. But, as free agent salaries continue to skyrocket, the Cards will find it harder and harder to dominate the NL Central via free agent signings.

The Cards have Pujols, Isringhausen, Edmonds, and Rolen signed long-term. The Cards will pay about $50 million annually for those four players alone. Suppan and Carpenter are locked up at $5 million a piece for 2006. Carpenter will make about $7 million in 2007, which is a complete steal. Jocketty will face tough decisions with Suppan and Mulder at season’s end, and Carpenter will demand huge money after 2007. If Rolen does not come back well, his contract is unmovable. He is singed through 2010 at about $13.5 million a year. Even with about $70 million going to the aforementioned players each year, the Cardinals can still fill in a lot of holes elsewhere, as I believe they can survive with about a $100 million dollar payroll each year.

Farm System: With a good farm system, the Cardinals would be unstoppable. Fortunately for the rest of the NL Central, the Cards do not have a good farm system. I’d rank it in the bottom 33% of the league. They have only one sure top-100 prospect and are very thin with position players. Here are notable Cardinals prospects:

1) Anthony Reyes: 24 years old, RH SP. Reyes will be the first guy called on to fill in the major league rotation. Everything about him is promising, including some great work in the majors last year, except for injury problems. In two years in the minors, Reyes has averaged well over a strikeout per inning and less than two walks per nine innings. At 24 years old and major-league ready, he is a top-notch prospect. I’m not sure if he was sidelined with shoulder or elbow problems this last year. Either way, that is a major concern for the Cardinals.
2) Chris Lambert: 22 years old, RH SP. Lambert is a first round pick from 2004. He put up impressive numbers in A, but was hit pretty hard in 80 AA innings. Typical infuriating pitching prospect. I guess he has a really good arm, but lacks clear proof of an ability to control his arm.
3) Adam Wainwright: 24, RH SP. Wainwright, like Reyes, is major-league ready. His minor league track record is good, but not great. He struggled through injuries in 2004 and has been in AAA ever since. With only about 7 strikeouts per 9 innings and about a 2.5/1 K/BB ratio, he doesn’t project to be a huge star, though he is immediately better than Sidney Ponson.
4) Tyler Greene: 22 SS. Greene was a first round pick in 2005. He was a star shortstop at Georgia Tech. He is someone to look out for in 2006, and may jump all the way to AA.
5) John Nelson: 26 SS. Do not be confused; Nelson, mostly because of his age, is not a real top prospect. However, I like him because of his Three True Outcome ways. At AAA last year, he had 14 HR, 51 BB, and 141 K in 427 AB. That’s impressive for a shortstop. He must swing really hard.

Introducing...MLB Team Audits

First of all, I want to wish a very Merry Christmas to all of you readers of BrewCitySports, even you Cubs fans. :) It has been a good year. Thanks for reading.

With all the Christmas break time on our hands, a few of us have decided to create a new feature....reviewing all the Major League Baseball franchises. Our vision is for the reviews to be in-depth, dealing with each team's likely lineup for the next season, management skills, minor league system, and outlook for the next few seasons.

Because the plan is for in-depth reviews, each will probably take a decent amount of time to complete. So, we could use some help if anyone would like to do so. Bub, $lash, and I will be doing most of the reviews. Anyone else that wants can write one on their favorite team or write as many as they want. Just let me know. If you know nothing about the team's minor league system or something, that is no problem. I am thinking about doing a top-100 prospects thing because those are fun to look back on in a few years. I will be more than happy to throw some minor league talk into a review. I am a huge nerd, fyi.

The Team Audits will be a fun little feature that will hopefully inform us about what else is going on around the league. They will be a good first step before our massive fantasy baseball discussions that will occur in February and March. So, I hope yous'll enjoy, and I hope a couple people volunteer to do a couple of write-ups. I'll try to come up with a standard format for all the reviews to follow

Are the cubs the dumbest franchise in the MLB?

If they sign Jacque Jones as a starting corner outfielder, I'd have to give them SERIOUS consideration. Just an assessment. Thoughts?

Why God?

I know it has been a while, but bear with me. As a reds fan I have an obligation to speak out of the recent goings on that I have witnesed. Where do I begin? Perhaps with the man that has singled handily ruined reds baseball for me the past five season. Yeah, that's you Griff-dog. Granted I root harder for you than most other reds fans and I continually take you in the first round of my fantasy draft, but come on guy. Why in the name of Lucifer are you deciding to play in this World Classic bullshit. Any red-blodded American couldn't give two shits (or Milton's if you prefer) about this stupid tournament. So what if the Dominican wins. What does that mean? They still love Sosa and will always get zero respect from me because of it. Here's an idea Tejada, Bill-Mo Pena and the rest of you studs looking forward to helping your homeland, take some of that chedda' you have in the bank ffrom the real league and buy 10 tons of irish spring and funions so those people can sit down to enjoy a meal without smelling like something that comes out of my ass the day after breaking bread at the Tumbleweed. Anyway, back to Griffey. Why does this guy decide to play in this meaningless tourney while he's struggling to make it through one season without a major injury. For Christ's sake the guy had arthroscopic surgery on his knee less than three moths ago. Get your ass ready for spring training and stay away from more opprotunities to sit in a wheelchair.

Enough on that subject. On to the next, what the hell compelled the new reds majority owner to put a dirty stinking ape in charge of personell moves this offseason. Don't get me wrong, I loved the Casey trade. Who cares if the guy smiles all of the time and is fun in the clubhouse. You know what else is fun? Winning god dammed ball games. He never fit into that incredible lineup and always tanked our big innings with his double-play ground balls. This way Dunn can move to first and Bill-Mo can finally play every day in left field. But then the ape makes the Womack trade. AAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRGH! Why does my team always decide to kid itself by trading for a 36-year-old second baseman with a lifetime OBP somewhere around .300? I mean I know it's the Christmas season and all, but since when is it fari to stuff Womack's stocking at the expense of mine--especially considering the first thing on my Christmas list this year was a reds season that didn't make me feel like the night I tried to play softball hungover as a mother with a double sobleman's in my gut. Womack is not the answer, unless he gets hit by a pitch in 400 at bats this season. He sucks and should be playing me a song for drinking money like Curtis Lowe. And now I hear they are looking to make another Milton-like free agent acquisition by throwing too much money at the likes of Washburn or Milwood. Here we go again. Between this shit and the certainty of Griffey having his right leg fall off in that international tourney, I should just start looking ahead to 2007. UNBELIEVEABLE!

So there's my reds rant for the winter. Sorry for the length, but I'm at work right now and I lterally have nothing else better to do.

Before I wrap this up, I just want to say thank you to the BCS for finally giving me an attractive and big-time matchup in every big bowl this season. While the Rose Bowl should be outstanding, I can't wait to see the Front Butt Express go up against the Buckeyes in Tempe. The Shark should have a field day on those shorter db's and Brady will exact revenge on A.J. Hawk for dating his sister. Goodtimes. I have the whole day off and am looking for people to watch football with that day. So Bub, Jim Jammers and the rest of you guys should make your plans now to accompany me and Nate into a drunken stupor because the whole day will be football heaven. Wisconsin will be destroyed by Auburn, my Dawgs will be crowned Sugar Bowl champs and Mussberger will be calling the Fiesta Bowl at the end of the night in primetime. FOLKS LIVE!!!

Hey Bub, didn't I win something on the USC game from the bet we all made at Club Tap?

I will be blogging on this thing for the rest of the winter and look forward to good things from the Brew-crew this spring.

Out.

Top Ten Doug Melvin Moves

Doug Melvin has been the GM of the Brewers for about 3 years now. After a seemingly inauspicious first year, he has spent the last two years being one of the very best GMs in the league. It would be fun to look back at the last three years at some of the best moves he has made. So, what do you think are the top ten Doug Melvin moves of the past three years? I’ll give you all some options. Feel free to pick, choose, and discuss. Also, feel free to choose a move not on the list, as I will inevitably forget to mention some big move he made. I will not post anything about draft strategies or hiring decisions (like Mike Maddux) because I don’t know how much influence Doug really has on those decisions.

My list is mostly just in time-line form. I’ll try to include moves that were not so good. Mention which one you think is his worst move.

· Claiming Brady Clark off of waivers.
· Trading Ray King for Wes Helms, John Foster, and maybe someone else I can’t remember.
· Releasing Ron Belliard.
· Trading flotsam for Matt Kinney and Javier Valentin
· Trading Curtis Leskanic for Wes Obermueller and Alejandro Mechado.
· Signing Royce Clayton
· Trading away Alex Sanchez for flotsam
· The infamous Dick Sexson trade.
· Wayne Franklin and Leo Estrella (Vizcaino II) trade for Carlos Villanueva and Glenn Woolard.
· Claiming Matt Wise.
· Claiming Dan Kolb.
· Claiming Doug Davis.
· Claiming Russell Branyan.
· Claiming Derrick Turnbow.
· Signing Geoff Jenkins to a rich three-year extension.
· Signing Damian Miller.
· Trading Dan Kolb for Jose Capellan.
· Trading Scott Podsednik and Jose Vizcaino for Carl Lee.
· Trading Keith Ginter for Nelly Cruz and Justin Lehr.
· Signing Rick Helling.
· Signing Ben Sheets to a rich three-year extension.
· Trading Junior Spivey for Thomas Ohka
· Trading Wes Obermueller for Dan Kolb.
· Trading Lyle Overbay and Ty Taubenheim for Dave Bush, Zach Jackson, and Gabe Gross.

Black People finally agree with Limbaugh???

So finals are over and I started reading random articles and saw this one about a member of the NAACP criticizing magnify for his poor play and even poorer excuses for his performance. The article is a good read, I was surprised that a man from the National Association for the ADVANCEMENT of Colored People would go out and deliberately bash a fellow colored person. The contradiction is surprising, but quite refreshing given the records of teams with black quarterbacks, it seems defensive coordinators have figured these guys out.

The Eagles are 5-8, the Falcons are 8-5, the Saints are 3-10, and the Titans are 4-9. The only respectable team with a black quarterback seems to be Jacksonville, but much of that success can be attributed to the defense. Michael Vick's scrambling seems to be completely neutralized this year, and Atlanta finished with a better record last year, so I wouldn't call this a great year for him, either.

I am not saying there is a correlation between black quarterbacks and team failure, but rather that it seems defenses are starting to figure out the scrambling quarterback (usually a black man) and the result is obvious. The Eagles went from going to the Superbowl to the bottom of the division in a year. The scrambling quarterback in the NFL appears to me to be a short lived phase. Black or white doesn't make a difference, all that matters is that the guy can throw the ball well, and McNabb, McNair, Vick, and Brooks can't in my opinion.

But back to the article, the guy criticizing McNabb only affirms what our favorite, oxycontin doping radio personality Rush Limbaugh said several years ago, that Donovan McNabb is overrated. This guy is either really trying to eat at deep racial issues in our society or is one pissed off Eagles fan. I believe the latter. Funny read nonetheless.

http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/special1/article.adp?id=20051214212909990008&ncid=NWS00010000000001

Am I the only one that does anything around here?

I'm really just posting so you'll all have something to read when you look here next time. though I did find something interesting: Condescendy didn't actually win the PBR me ASAP PPC from this October, the anti-bub did. while that kinda still makes j beast right, I feel as though I got fleeced. that's all. I'll probably do something crazy soon like pick all 257 bowl games against the spread. stay tuned.

What you think about when you've only got two wins

1. Our coach needs to be fired. You can't come into a season under scrutiny, only win two games, and expect to keep your job. I would really like to see Jim Bates given a shot as our head coach next year. There will be plenty of talk of Mooch coming in because of his history with Favre, but, in this Bub's opinion, he's not the solution. True, Favre hasn't been the same since the Mariucci/Reid days-mainly because they kept him on SOME sort of leash-but the clear issue with this team has been defensive. Jim Bates has done a masterful job with shitty talent this season, not to mention he did relatively well during his interim stint with Miami last year. Maybe Mariucci (or Dick Jauron, for that matter) would come back to Green Bay to be offensive coordinator.
2. Using the Pythagoreum calculations that we have in baseball, the Packers record should be 6-6 right now. Their current point differential is -9 on the season (down 6-0 at press time). I'll grant you, its tougher to apply this to football given the small sample size (the packers and their 49 point victory are a perfect example) but you can see where, with a few bounces, this team could be .500. I often feel that disparity between pythagoreum and actual record is an indictment of coaching, and that may not necessarily be fair to Shermgren, it would validate point 1.
3. Draft Status. This is always one of the key things fans of shitty teams look forward to with some sort of pleasure. Unless your football team is located in Ohio. Then your teams are plagued by notoriously shitty draft choices at the top of the draft. Anyway, this is one of the benefits of the Packers being bad this year. They will surely have a top ten pick this year, and we all remember the stud we drafted last time we were in the top ten. . . Thats right, none other than Jamal Reynolds. Thankfully, this year the Packer's pick is soooo good and the top of the draft is sooo talented that even Ted Thompson can't screw this one up. Honestly, I don't remember the top of the draft ever being this stacked (especially if Vince Young and Mario Williams (I'll explain) Come out. What's more, I've basically resigned myself to the fact that there's little chance that Reggie Bush will end up in Green Bay, like 10%. And you know what? I'm OK with that. I'm going to list my reasons and solutions.
A. Ahman Green is likely at the end of his career, but I wouldn't put it past him to at least try to be the starting back next year. I know that's not his decision, but the packers will probably give him a 1-year, incentive laden contract if they offer him anything. If this happens, and they retain Najeh Davenport (anybody know his contract status?) they are pretty unlikely to need a runningback, though they'd likely take Bush if he's available.
B. If we decide against Green but still can't draft Bush, there are other talented runningbacks available at the top of the draft. Very talented backs, much like last year. DeAngelo Williams (Memphis) is unknown because he plays for a bad team, but he's amazing. Like LaDanian Tomlinson good. Laurence Maroney is also extremely talented, but he's a junior so he may elect to take one more year at Minnesota. Which brings me to another point . . . Next year's junior runninback class is deeper than this one, and - reggie bush aside - just as talented. If the packers need a back, they may take approach A and then draft a guy next year.
C. Lots of bad teams need quarterbacks. Most notably, the Jets and Saints. This means that other teams that want Matt Leinart or Vince Young will have to trade up to get them. To us. we may stock pile picks as a result. a real possibility here, especially depending upon our cap status for next season.
D. Let's face it, we have larger needs on defense and on the O-line. This is where I take the most solace in the fact that we won't be drafting Reggie this year. AJ Hawk, though I'm absolutely sick of hearing about him hyped up for the Fiesta Bowl, is the real deal. D'Brickshaw Furgueson is a OT from Virginia and was rated as the #1 senior in the country coming into the year. He's been injured for much of the year and has fallen under the radar, but drafting him would allow us to move Taucher to guard and get Adrian Klemm the fuck off the field. Other possibilities include Paul Posluszny, LB from Penn State, Tamba Hali, DE from Penn State, and Demarco Ryans, LB from Alabama, but here's the guy we all really want. Mario Williams, a DE from North Carolina State, the guy I mentioned before. He's big. No, that's an understatement. He's fucking enormous. 6-7 290. And he's a rush end, which means he's fast, though I don't have a 40 time to back that up. I watched him play in the season finale against Maryland, in which he had four sacks and was in the backfield basically every play. He was very clearly the best player on the field. a pass rusher of this talent makes the secondary instantly better. he's got 13 sacks on the year and 20 tackles for loss. those numbers seem low, but he spent some time this year injured.
All that being said, I'd like to see us land Reggie Bush. He'll make his team 2-3 games better next year and playoff competitors the following season, provided there is any marginally intelligent front office decisionmaking.
4. Fittingly, point #4 will be discussing Brett Favre. He's beginning to look like end-of-his-career Marino, where he still puts up stats and keeps the team in games, but he's throwing way too many crucial interceptions at the end of games, like last week. when was the last time we had a 4th quarter comeback drive? The only game that comes close was the minnesota game in minneapolis, but we still lost the damn game. He's a legend and will forever be recognized as so, and I'm not saying he should retire. I'm saying his performance has cast some doubt as to what's really best for this team. I just hope he makes a decision that's best for the franchise. I know most of you have finals this week, so responses will likely be slow in coming, but let me know what all of you think about any of this.

Author's note: Please excuse spelling errors, spell checker isn't workin for me tonight.

Below is a picture of Mario Williams. He looks like he spent the last 18-24 hours eating quarterbacks and their families.

A joint bubgartner effort

So Drew and I had a brief conversation about Chad Johnson's touchdown celebrations, which basically consisted of us wanting to find a website with videos or at least pictures of some of the more memorable ones. After a little bit of searching, I came up with this. At the Bub's suggestion, I'm posting it on the board.
enjoy...

http://thebestsportsblog.com/?page_id=50

(coming next week will be the complete 7th floor crew song lyrics along with a yousendit.com link to download the song)

Overbay and O'Mueller Trades

It's late Wednesday night, and rumour has it that these deals are done. ...

Wes O'Mueller
in exchange for,
Dan Kolb I, of the Atlanta Braves
in exchange.

Lyle Overbay,
in exchange for,
SP David Bush, SP Zack Jackson, and OF Gabe Gross of the Toronto Blue Jays
in exchange.

We should have final word on both by tomorrow and whether any PTBNL are involved.

For now, let's get some feedback. I want to know what people think. I will post several comments after tomorrow. For now, I will just say I am excited to say the least. If you forced me to say more about why I was excited, I would point to an area of wetness on my pants. If you asked me to explain the area of wetness, I would tell you that I would explain the area of wetness sometime late tomorrow.

What's the funniest thing you've seen this week?

For me, it was this footage I just saw on ESPN. what was this footage you ask? It was footage of everybody's favorite former Cincinnati Bearcats head coach Robert Thuggins being arrested. What was he being arrested for? Driving under the influence. Why is this so funny? well, because he looked every bit as drunk as Erik was on his birthday. or in Canada. and he had been driving a car. and they caught his field sobriety test on tape. Class act, Bob.

Edit by Condescendy: This is the funniest thing ever....Bub agrees....ignore all other posts.....