I like point spreads
I know I promised better analysis this week, but too bad, all you get is football gambling. Everybody here watched me call my shot last week, so I'm gonna follow it up, along with the lenghthiest piece of analysis I've done in some time. Also, my record blew last week, but, hey, it happens to the best of us.
Saturday, Rocktober 15
USC @ Notre Dame (+12)
Lots of people are talking about how bad Notre Dame's pass defense is. I am not here to call it first rate, because first rate it is not. However, it's not as bad as people claim it to be. the statistic quoted most often is that the Irish have the 114th ranked pass defense in the country. However, this number is based on yards per game. Can anybody tell me why this is a misleading statistic? Mr. The Bub, you had your hand up, go ahead. Well, folks, the reason that number is so atrocious: Notre Dame has jumped out to such tremendous early leads, and to a lesser extent controlled time of possession, that opposing teams have no option but to pass the ball. Did you know that three teams have given up more yardage per game through the air, but that only three teams have had more pass attempts against? Probably not. What's more, when you calculate yards per attempt (not done conveniently anywhere, I had to do this shizzle myself), Notre Dame's pass defense is ranked 86th. Like I said, I'm not here to defend it, but that number is a whole lot more appealing than fourth last. Furthermore, the average y/a against is 6.91 and ND's is 7.49, a statistically significant but not obscene difference, particularly in a category with a 6 y/a range. Their ypg number, however, is 308, while average sits at 220. in short, their pass defense is clearly their Achilles heel, but shouldn't be nearly as detrimental as anticipated.
Other things to consider: Charlie Weis has effectively gameplanned for each and every opponent faced thus far this year. In fact, we've torn pretty much every defense but one to shreds. and with the exception of the pitt game, they've all been with 7 days preparation. now he's had fourteen, so I can really only hope to expect twice the output from the offense (tim, don't jump all over me, I don't really expect 80 points this weekend). This will not be a blowout like Notre dame's other wins, but I expect Notre Dame to show up a lot more prepared than USC (and by that I mean the USC players, not necessarily the coaching staff) will have given them credit for. I am aware that not everybody that reads this site cares about Notre dame football, but 3 of us are grads, a fourth is attending, and condescendy is a subway alum. so there. . . straight up: Notre Dame
I will not be picking any other games this weekend. My reasons are manifold. 1. I do not favor any of the lines on the other games. B) I don't give a shit about any game but the one mentioned above this Saturday. III.) The Packers don't play sunday, so no need to pick nfl games.If someone were holding a gun to my head, I would take Georgia -16 and Louisville -7 Saturday, but those will not count towards my totals.