with a mere 19 games to go
The Brewers need only ten wins to reach 81 on the season. If any professional organization needs to have the faith restored immediately, its the Brewers. If all goes according to plan, we'll pass the torch on to the pittsburgh pirates as the band of bumbling fools in professional sports. Their organizational management mirrored the Brewers' own in abysmal-ocity over the last dozen years or so. What is it, then, that Milwaukee needs to do to get over .500? why is that so important? Well, I'll start by addressing the importance of .500. we had a home series this weekend with a legend of the game on the mound and a legitimate cy young cantidate and neither game drew over 20,000. Of course, there was a packers game sunday, and I'm sure gas prices had some effect, but milwaukee needs to remain a big draw in the area if they have any hopes of being financially competitive over the long haul. a .500 season isn't going to be some magic cure for this problem (although more acl injuries may help . . .), but it will (should) remind people that our baseball team plays games after september 1, and they're not even that bad. playing games after October 1 will be the real cure for sluggish late season attendance, but metinks that may be a couple years away, especially if we reach atlanta/oakland levels of 23 year olds on the major league roster. Now, how will they reach this .500 stepping stone? I have no goddamn idea. there has to be productivity from the bottom of the lineup, because this team is still getting on base below league average, and it becomes difficult to score runs with weeks hurting and Swinglos Lee not walking ever. Also, we can't have any more pitchers go santos on us because, especially with sheets out, we have nowhere left to turn. if ohka or helling melts down, we can really only turn to a triple-platoon of sarfate/santos/o'mueller/whoever broke down as we can't afford to put a lot of strain on young arms this late in the season, lest we become the Cubs . . . or the Brewers minor league system. I am confident that the Maddux/Dauer combination will keep us in games on the RA side, they just need some run support. If Guice Jenkins and Juice J. Hardy can maintain second half improvements, look for the brewers to at least flirt with .500.
*Editors note: If this analysis sucks, I apologize. I haven't had as much time to watch games and do extra reading due to work, and football season. my message board and article reading has nearly tripled, but my brewers reading has declined, to say the least. I promise a better effort in a few days.
posted by Brew City Bub @ 11:49 PM
1 comments
1 Comments:
You're going to run class 15 minutes late, and I'm going to post blogs all day, deal?
I admit that fans need to come out more to the stadium late in the season. But, I'm not all that unhappy with the crowds this weekend. Three years ago, I could honestly count how many people were on the Terrace level in games in September. Anything over 12,000 is an improvement, though a marginal one.
I hate saying this, but the odds on paper actually are in favor of the Brewers reaching .500 this season. The schedule is favorable, and the team is playing far below where it should be. By that I mean that with a +30 run differential, the Brewers should be about 74-69 right now. Remember, run differential is far more telling of talent and projecting future performance than record is. Again, on paper, one would expect the Brewers to take 2/3 from the Diamondbacks this week. From that point, the Crew would be at .500, with a lot of homegames against sub-500 teams remaining.
However, we shouldn't get too optimistic. I think the Brewers chances took a big hit when Nashville won its playoff series this past weekend. That means Durrington, Sarfate, Adams, Bennett (though he's hurt now - not sure how bad), Cruz, etc. will not be recalled for at least another week. Those players would provide only a small amount of Win Shares going forward, but that might mean a game, and a game might be the difference between a .500 season and a disappointing season. Durrington's pinch-running could make a big difference, as might a few innings from Adams instead of Obermueller or Santos. Likewise, Sarfate could be an absolute stud and would have been a candidate to replace the fifth starter. Because Nashville won, we will suffer through at least one more Obermueller/Santos start. Hence, the Crew will not win the series against the Astros this next weekend. Also, remember that Dick Helling will have sold his soul to satan if his ERA is under 3.50 at the end of the year. If I had to guess, I'd say the 3-5 starters will post a Reds-ish 6.25 ERA from here on out, even considering the amount of games against poor offenses (Pirates, I'm lookin' at you). It's going to be tough to play above .500 from here with starting pitching like that. I'm not saying it's impossible. Also, I'm not saying the starters will for sure be that bad, but odds are they will be.
Am I still making too big of a deal about these starters?
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